However, almost none of the experts doubt that Russia may also soon be hit by a new migration wave, in particular due to a possible escalation of the situation in Afghanistan and the Central Asian republics. For example, Olga Gulina, co-founder of the Berlin Institute for Migration Policy, noted that in Afghanistan, the number of citizens applying for foreign passports has sharply increased recently.
Meanwhile, the example of the Ukrainian crisis has already shown that Russia failed or did not want to cope with the flow of refugees who are much closer culturally and ethnically to Russians. According to FMS data presented at the meeting, since April 1, 2014, 1.09 million people have entered and remained in Russia. At the same time, only 317 of them have received Russian citizenship. Refugee status for this million is valid only until November 1, 2015. That is, a huge mass of people risks becoming illegal migrants.
Given the catastrophic situation on the labor market in Russia, no matter how tragic the war in eastern Ukraine is, this million people, close ethnically and culturally and mostly highly qualified, could have been 'manna from heaven' for Russia, believes Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya, head of the Migration Research Laboratory at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, in the words of Vyacheslav Postavnin, president of the 'Migration XXI Century' foundation, 'we did everything to push them away from us.'
The reason for this situation, probably, is the general approach that prevails in Russia regarding migration. The USA proceeds from the assumption that migration is a resource for the country's development. The cornerstone there is the principle that migration is a 'development resource that should bring economic benefits, and the principles of its management should be humane, based on respect for human rights,' said Postavnin. The current Russian model of migration policy, on the other hand, is based on 'the legality of a migrant's stay on the territory of the Russian Federation.' 'That is, we perceive migrants as some kind of danger,' the expert added.
Now this Soviet principle does not work, Postavnin believes. According to him, it is impossible to track everyone, and all recent measures in the migration sphere have only led to an increase in the number of illegal migrants in the country. In support of his words, the expert cited data from the Federal Migration Service, according to which there are currently 14 million foreigners in Russia, while only 2.5 million of them work legally.
In turn, Yevgeny Gontmakher, deputy director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted that Russia often uses migration policy simply as a tool to punish certain former USSR countries for 'incorrect' behavior. 'Even with countries close to us in common past and common culture, such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, or Ukraine, from where the main flow of migrants to Russia comes, no effective labor migration agreements have been concluded. Situational decisions are often made, sometimes for the sake of politics, when a country needs to be punished a little for not behaving well. Discriminatory measures are introduced for entry and stay of people here,' he explained.
This approach to migration, of course, is in no way comparable not only to American policy in this area but also to European policy. As Olga Gulina noted, contrary to the fears and horrors of Russians about the current migration crisis in the Old World, 'the number of refugees and humanitarian migrants arriving in Europe is not a great danger for us; the question is how to agree on their distribution.' This is more a management problem, she added.
According to the expert, according to recent studies, Syrian refugees 'are educated, usually bilingual, and 61% of them have diplomas from Western universities.' So the quality of human material here is much higher than, for example, migrants from Eritrea and Afghanistan, among whom 'less than 40% have reading and writing skills.'
All experts who took part in the discussion agree that Russia will not be able to stay away from the unfolding global migration processes in the modern world. Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya called the current migration situation in Europe and the world 'the beginning of a great migration of peoples.' She is convinced that this process will also affect Russia. In particular, the expert stressed that according to forecasts, Africa's population will triple by the end of the century. 'And where will this poor population without an economic base go?' she asks.
According to Zayonchkovskaya, states today should draw lessons from the current migration situation in Europe. One of the main lessons, the expert believes, is that, among other factors, 'global migration flows are triggered by major wars.'