Timor and his team
Martti Ahtisaari has extensive experience in dismantling the former Yugoslavia. It was he who, after NATO bombing, persuaded the Belgrade authorities to recognize the de facto independence of Kosovo and also to hand over Slobodan Milošević to the international court in The Hague. And now Ahtisaari has appeared as a mediator on settling the status of Kosovo with an eye to its independence. By the way, next spring there will also be a referendum on Montenegro's final separation from Serbia. So the process of formalizing the period of European fragmentation has begun.
In the case of Kosovo, official recognition of the region as an independent state is only an intermediate stage. In the long term, it is about the formation of Greater Albania. It is no coincidence that the flag and anthem of sovereign Kosovo, presented the other day by the president of the autonomy, Ibrahim Rugova, are identical to the Albanian ones. However, most potential new Europeans, while agreeing to join the European Union, are not going to join any national states, since they represent separate nations.
The most interesting thing is that “civilized” separatism fits perfectly into the philosophy of the UN and international law. The priority of the right of nations to self-determination is stated, for example, in the UN declaration “On Principles of International Law” of 1970. Other important world documents echo it.
“In international law, there is the view that there is no contradiction between the principles of territorial integrity and the right of nations to self-determination,” said the well-known French lawyer Bernard Dessé. “The principle of territorial integrity is directed against attempts by one state to unilaterally change borders with another state in its favor. Whereas internal conflicts, including the confrontation between the ‘center’ and ‘separatists’, in no way fall under the principle of territorial integrity. It turns out that the right of nations to self-determination is a priority. A state that calls this into question cannot belong to the democratic family of peoples.”
However, one thing is paper, and quite another is living practice. But even here there are no visible contradictions. Moreover, precedents have been created. Not long ago, East Timor became the 191st UN member state. A former Portuguese colony, occupied by Indonesia in 1975 and under UN control since 1999, fought for independence for a quarter of a century. And, having lost in battles with its cumbersome neighbor nearly a quarter of its population, it nevertheless won. In the same way, the international community recognized the independence of Eritrea from Ethiopia. And nothing, the world did not turn upside down.
The natural question arises: why cannot the same metamorphosis happen to other countries and peoples? Multinational states are by no means able to counter this with arguments about the “immutability of borders”. In reality, it is possible to ensure this very immutability only by force or by persuading separatists, and more often by a combination of both. Northern Ireland and Chechnya are vivid examples. In Chechnya, for example, after two military campaigns, a referendum was held in which the overwhelming majority spoke in favor of keeping the republic within Russia. That's it. The question, at least from the point of view of international law, is closed.
A different matter is the weak post-Soviet states. Their separatists have every chance of achieving sovereignty. And even large EU member states find it difficult to resist some of their provinces demanding independence, while declaring their readiness to remain within the European Union. After all, legally, any Basques or Corsicans are right on all counts, and democratic norms are the same for everyone. The main thing is that a united Europe in any case remains united, with a common currency, parliament and other authorities, no matter how many states comprise it.
And therefore the question is relevant: who is next? Already today, in addition to Kosovo, quite a few European regions are queuing for independence. As a result, on the map of the continent in the future (and not so distant) the following entities of the “European federation” may appear.
Padania
This is the name, after the Po River (in Latin, Padus), of an economically developed area in northern Italy. The political struggle for the independence of this region is led by the Northern League. The leader of the northerners is Umberto Bossi, who was a minister for governmental reforms in the Italian government. By the way, the plan for these reforms, which is to be submitted to a nationwide referendum in the near future, provides for broad autonomy of the regions, and above all Padania. This is the minimum program. In words, things have already come to the proclamation of the independent republic of Padania, the “demarcation” of Padanian “borders”, and the election of its own “parliament”...
Catalonia
The most populous national region of Spain recently adopted a new autonomy statute, which in almost every article contradicts the Spanish constitution. In the very first of them, Catalans are defined as an independent nation. Autonomous legislation is placed above national legislation. Agriculture, justice, education, and migration policy are defined as the exclusive competence of Barcelona. And Article 176 says that agreements of the central government with other Spanish regions do not apply to Catalonia. The head of Catalonia, Pasqual Maragall, said that his “generosity towards Spain has reached its limit”: from now on, the autonomy intends to fully dispose of the taxes collected on its territory. Catalan is to become the official language. These reforms are supported by 70% of the region's residents. The new status, however, must be approved by the Spanish parliament. No one - neither in Madrid nor in Barcelona - has any doubt that in this form the statute will not pass in the center. And what then?
Euskadi
The population of the Basque Country (Euskadi - in the local language) is considered the most ancient, still pre-Indo-European people of Western Europe. If all the Basques of the earth united, there would be 1.25 million of them. Apart from Spain, these aborigines of our continent live in France and in Latin American countries. The people who gave humanity such an item of clothing as the beret are known for their love of freedom and warlike nature. In today's Spain, the Basque Country enjoys broad self-government. A parliament of its own has been created, police units have been formed, local authorities collect taxes, priorities in education have been established, and literature is published in Euskara, the Basque language. After four decades of armed confrontation, the Basque separatist organization ETA proposed at the beginning of this year to the Spanish authorities to begin a political dialogue on the issue of even greater autonomy up to secession.
Corsica
Until 1982, the French authorities refused to recognize the existence of other nations in the country. The only exception was made for the Basques, who were regarded as a 'border population.' This policy led to the fact that in the early 1980s separatist sentiments intensified so much that combat organizations were created in Corsica and Brittany. Explosions rang out. Then Corsica was granted limited autonomy - in the fields of education and culture... But paramilitary organizations on Napoleon's homeland still continued to be created. Up to 300 terrorist acts were committed per year. On July 21, 2000, the French government 'capitulated' to the Corsican National Liberation Front and granted the island broad autonomy. Today this subsidized province of France, whose inhabitants consider themselves not French but direct descendants of the Etruscans, enjoys significant privileges, including in the tax sphere. However, the separatists still behave defiantly, they know: time is on their side.
Flanders and Wallonia
The split of Belgium along national and linguistic lines - into French-speaking Walloons and Germanic-speaking Flemings - was laid down during the revolution of 1830, which eliminated dependence on the Dutch crown. After Belgium lost its colonies, the Flemish problem became chronic, and all attempts to create a single 'Belgian nation' proved futile. Unlike French and Spanish separatists, Flemish nationalists do not set off bombs. But it is no secret that the region around Antwerp, the main city of Flanders, is oriented to a significant extent toward the neighboring Netherlands rather than toward the capital Brussels. The same, however, is increasingly felt in Lille, the capital of French Flanders, where Flemish nationalists have raised their heads in recent years. It cannot be ruled out that someday, along the entire northwestern coast - from Boulogne almost to Bremen - a new state will be created under the ancient name of Flanders.
Dniester Rus
The Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR) is located on the territory of the Moldavian ASSR, which existed in the Stalin era and was part of the Ukrainian SSR. The unrecognized republic was proclaimed in 1990 following a referendum triggered by the then Moldovan government's policy of joining Romania. Three state languages are recognized on the territory of the PMR: Moldavian (with Russian script), Russian, and Ukrainian. The currency is the ruble of the Pridnestrovian Bank. Transnistria also has its own army of 4,500 people. The industrially developed PMR has nothing against unification with agrarian Moldova, provided there are absolutely equal rights and equal representation in parliament. Chisinau, in turn, favors a so-called asymmetric federation, which has existed only once in history - in Czechoslovakia - and fell apart as soon as the Berlin Wall collapsed. The PMR's coat of arms is painfully reminiscent of the coats of arms of the Soviet 'sister republics': it features ears of grain, a hammer and sickle, and a red star...
Abkhazia
For almost two centuries this country was a classic autonomy. It was annexed to Russia as early as 1810. In Soviet times, Abkhazia was an autonomous republic of Georgia. When, after the collapse of the USSR, the autonomy wanted to leave Georgia and join Russia again, a war began that ended in disaster for Tbilisi. In 1995, Abkhazia proclaimed itself an independent state. The currency of the unrecognized republic, where most of the population also holds a Russian passport, is the ruble. In 1999, a referendum was held in Abkhazia, in which the people confirmed their aspiration for independence.
Artsakh
Sunny Forest - that is what Armenians call Nagorno-Karabakh. The country was formed as a result of a war that was victorious for the Armenians: the Karabakh army not only drove the Azerbaijanis out of Artsakh, but also occupied seven districts of Azerbaijan proper. The currency is the Armenian dram, circulating alongside the local dram. Armenia granted its citizenship to all residents of Artsakh. Few people know that the latest Karabakh settlement project - the Paul Gobble plan, proposed by the US administration - openly recognizes the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh. Under it, in exchange for renouncing Karabakh and the Lachin corridor, which connects Artsakh with Armenia, Azerbaijan receives the Meghri district for communication with Nakhichevan. And to prevent the formation of a Turkic 'cordon sanitaire' around Armenia, part of the territory of Azerbaijani Nakhichevan bordering Iran goes to Armenia. So much for the inviolability of borders!
The American project, however, so far does not suit either Armenian politicians, who do not accept the exchange of some Armenian territories for others, or Azerbaijani leaders, who are thus forced to recognize the irreversibility of Artsakh's separation. So Karabakh, along with Kosovo and Montenegro, is among the top three contenders for the title of supernova European states. However, American diplomacy has more than once confirmed that it knows how to achieve its goal. They are literally half a step away from gaining full independence. Further, the process of the birth of 'supernovae' in Europe will proceed along a well-worn path.