The last of such large-scale waves was generated by the turbulent 1990s, which was connected with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent collapse of the economy and social institutions. Then came a relative lull. And now the prerequisites for the formation of a new large wave of emigration from Russia and the countries integrated with it are rapidly emerging.
Motivation and Immigration
It cannot be said that the wave of migration of the 1990s has now passed, and emigration from Russia or Kazakhstan has lost any attractiveness. This is not so. Smart and active people, especially among young people, are still looking for ways to go where better prospects open up for them. However, the current emigration and the emigration of the 1990s differ from each other mainly in motivation.
If until the mid-2000s people went abroad from the problems and poverty of the post-Soviet space, then in the last decade this has been replaced by a pragmatic search for better conditions for themselves and their families.
Actually, Russians, Ukrainians, and residents of Kazakhstan have in this respect become on par with residents of other countries, since labor migration in our global world has long become an established phenomenon. Moreover, it is even difficult to qualify this as immigration, since in many cases we are talking not about moving to another country for permanent residence, but rather about a long-term foreign business trip.
Naturally, many of such specialists who left for work, finding themselves in countries favorable for immigration, subsequently tie their fate to these countries. But this is more a result of the logic of events than an initially planned decision.
In this regard, it is worth remembering that the indicator of whether this is immigration or only a temporary stay on foreign territory is the fact of obtaining a second citizenship. Until you have obtained the citizenship of the host country, you remain a foreigner to it. After obtaining the citizenship of another country, we can talk about accomplished immigration.
Reasons for changes in motivation for immigration
Undoubtedly, when speaking with respect to Canada, most of those who ended up on its territory try to obtain permanent resident status and then citizenship – even for the simple reason that it gives a lot of advantages, with practically no negative consequences associated with this step. But at the moment it is rather an action of the type 'if there is an opportunity, then why not take advantage of it?'
This is explained quite simply. The 'Fat Zeroes' were perhaps the most successful and most positive years for Russia and for the rest of the countries of the former USSR in the last century. Only the Soviet 1950s, which were a time of the brightest rise in the short history of the first socialist state, can be compared to these years with a great stretch.
One must clearly realize that since the beginning of the new century, Russia has been reaping the fruits of partnership and integration with the Western world. European markets and American financing opened up for Russia; it actively integrated into the world trade system, with its interests being respected by Western countries; arms spending was small; the population got the opportunity to travel the world and purchase real estate abroad under a relatively liberal regime.
Most importantly, energy prices broke all records, and Russia had a thick flow of petrodollars – for which one must first thank the United States, whose political-financial circles largely artificially supported high prices.
That is, one must understand that Russia's well-being over all past years was based primarily on cooperation and partnership with the West, which ceased to see it as an enemy. Now all this is coming to an end, with all the ensuing consequences. And Russia became the initiator of such a turn of events.
Turning point
Why, starting from 2012, a sharp turn towards confrontation with the West and the fomenting of hysteria took shape in Russia, historians of the future will have to figure out. Actually, the first warning signs appeared even earlier, suffice it to recall Putin's Munich speech in 2007, but it was 2012 that became a turning point.
The simplest explanation, which lies on the surface, consists in the increased appetites of the Russian elite, for whom the status of a regional power became too tight. That is, we have a classic situation described by Pushkin – 'I don't want to be a hereditary noblewoman, I want to be the mistress of the sea...'
The second reason, which also lies on the surface, is the rapid strengthening of autocracy in the country and the conflicts with the West that began on this basis, which sought to preserve and strengthen democratic institutions.
Finally, as a consequence of the growing ambitions and appetites of the elites, as well as a slowdown in economic growth, a trend towards worsening living conditions for the population emerged. As a lightning rod for public discontent, which was inevitable, it was considered better to shift the blame onto an external enemy.
To this one should add a host of other factors, including those that the general public is unlikely to ever know – for example, changes in the balance of power within ruling clans, the conclusion or non-conclusion of new agreements with global elites, etc.
Be that as it may, in 2012-2013, minor squabbles with the West gave way to raised voices, and from the beginning of 2014 gave way to a confrontation comparable only to the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Current situation
If we set aside emotions and personal biases, the situation looks as follows. As a result of a series of clumsy actions by Yanukovych's government, popular demonstrations took place in Ukraine demanding the resignation of the corrupt leadership. After Yanukovych's escape from Ukraine, the Verkhovna Rada formed a provisional government and scheduled elections for a new president.
Taking advantage of the unstable situation inside Ukraine, Russia sent troops into Crimea and, after holding a referendum not recognized by the international community, annexed the territory of the peninsula in violation of all norms and agreements.
Then, through direct intervention and support for separatist forces, it began destabilizing the southeastern regions of Ukraine, which led to full-scale military operations involving mercenaries from Russia, loss of life, and a humanitarian catastrophe.
At the same time, an unprecedented propaganda campaign against the West, America, and Ukraine was launched in Russia, stoking an atmosphere of hysteria and biased presentation of facts.
One may agree or disagree with this interpretation, and arguments can be made for or against it depending on one's personal stance, but what is described above is how events are interpreted in the West.
Accordingly, the West will henceforth build its relations with Russia based on the following:
- Russia is an aggressor country that tramples on international law and treaties;
- Russia is no longer a partner but an adversary of NATO (Russia was the initiator of this);
- Russia cannot be trusted, as recently both Putin and Russian diplomats have been caught in outright lies, meaning it is impossible to build normal contractual relations with this country.
In fact, Russia has become a pariah state, and will be treated accordingly. Moreover, this happened solely on Russia's initiative, as Western countries had absolutely no need for a conflict with Russia; the world already has enough problems that require serious attention and resources. Furthermore, Russia was extremely important to Western countries precisely as an ally.
Overall, it seems that, as in the case of Ukraine, the Kremlin rulers decided to take advantage of the difficult situation in which Western countries currently find themselves, forced to deal with a large number of challenges. Their harsh reaction is not surprising in this regard, as there is effectively blackmail on the part of Russia. If this is the case, then creating problems for Russia becomes a matter of principle for Western countries.
Continued: UNDER A NEW WAVE OF IMMIGRATION (PART 2)
Egor TROFIMOV.
«Русский Торонто»