In the future, Merkel's policy will turn out to be a plus for Germany's development, the expert predicts
– How serious is the rejection of migrants by German society today?
– This question cannot be answered unequivocally. It is impossible to say that all German society accepts migrants or, on the contrary, that it does not accept them. German society, like any other – European, Russian, American – is very heterogeneous. There are different poll results, and different points of view are debated in the media.
– What do opinion polls and statistics show on this topic?
– Today there is an increase in arson attacks on refugee camps. Comparing the crime statistics of 2014 and 2015, we note that the number of arson attempts increased by 76% and the number of actual arsons by 47.5%. At the same time, only four court rulings have been issued in the country that placed responsibility on the perpetrators.
At the same time, it is worth noting that there are few deep academic studies of this problem, as opposed to journalistic ones. Nevertheless, there are some sociological polls that show a relatively positive attitude toward newcomers. Based on the March ARD poll, I would say that the majority of German society understands the migration situation and the policy pursued by Angela Merkel's cabinet. 67% of respondents said they believe in the integration of humanitarian migrants into German society and that Germany will cope with this task.
One needs to know the background of such sentiments. Germany is lucky to have a politician like Angela Merkel. A few days ago, the media widely circulated an interview with her, where, in response to a question from journalist Anne Will about what her plan is for receiving refugees, given that the number of humanitarian migrants is growing, Chancellor Merkel replied that we will accept them, integrate them, and they will join German society. This is, roughly speaking, "Plan A," and what about another, so to speak, "Plan B," the journalist asks her. To which Chancellor Merkel answered that there is no "Plan B." In other words, there is only one plan, according to which refugees flee and the German government rescues them. After all, a continent where one country closes its borders and another must save all the people is not the Europe of Merkel's vision. So she has no other plan.
– How do you explain this position of Merkel?
– You know, I thought about this for a long time and can cite a quote from Winston Churchill. He once said that a politician differs from a statesman in that the former only thinks about how to please the voter, while the latter makes decisions that will benefit the state in five to ten years. So, based on Churchill's concept, Merkel is a statesman. She does not make decisions based on the mass of voters. She understands perfectly that if they manage to integrate the people who have now arrived in Germany, it will be a major demographic breakthrough.
Here you need to see the whole picture. In Germany, the standard of living is rising, people are living longer, but the population is declining. At the same time, social obligations will need to be fulfilled. And migrants are a demographic addition to this aging and shrinking population. Look, at the end of the 19th century, when Chancellor Bismarck introduced the concept of pensions at age 70 in Germany, the average life expectancy was 55 years. In modern Germany, where the retirement age is 65, the average life expectancy is constantly increasing and has already surpassed 73 years. So in the future, Merkel's sensible policy will turn out to be a plus for the development of the state.
– How strongly does Angela Merkel's migration policy affect the change in the domestic German political landscape? And does it affect it at all? By the logic of things, it is assumed that this policy will contribute to the growth of far-right sentiments in German society.
– Statistics do show a rise in right-wing extremist sentiments. The number of regional organizations opposing "the Islamization of the homeland" is increasing. For example, in Dresden there is a movement against Islamization called PEGIDA. Similar movements have emerged in Leipzig and other places. Such sentiments are growing. But the number of their adherents sometimes increases and sometimes decreases. For example, at the beginning of January 2015, 25,000 people participated in PEGIDA rallies, while at the end of December of the same year, about 6,000 were registered. After the events in France, the size of nationalist demonstrations in Germany rose to 17,500 people. In the report of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution of Germany, which monitors such organizations, it is noted that 300 members left the National Democratic Party of Germany in 2015, and today its membership is only 5,200 people. So trends on this flank of German politics are ambiguous.
– And how do these sentiments affect Merkel's popularity?
– When it comes to Merkel's ratings, they are also varied. On the one hand, her popularity is declining. But on the other hand, after the interview in which she said that we only have "Plan A" for refugees, her rating rose again. In February it was 46%, and in early March it increased to 54%. Meanwhile, Merkel's constant critic, CSU chairman and Bavarian prime minister Horst Seehofer has 38%. Incidentally, returning again to Winston Churchill's classification, I would say that Seehofer is a politician, while Merkel is a statesman who works for the country.
It is also important to note that in fact there is no discord within Germany between the main political figures and parties on substantive issues, on the migration topic. For example, Germany adopted amendments to legislation limiting family reunification for persons who have received asylum in the country. They stipulate that those who have been granted refugee status in Germany will not be able to bring their family members to Germany for two years. There is no such rule for other categories of migrants, for example, business migrants, students. This applies only to humanitarian migration. It turned out that there are no contradictions between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats on this and other key issues. They know how to negotiate.