Legally working migrants in Russia have decreased by 40%
Migrants "went gray"
By tightening the procedures for registering migrant labor, the government has sharply worsened the situation with the legalization of foreign labor, according to the November monitoring of the economic situation prepared by RANEPA experts. "The tightening of screws" in the midst of the crisis led to a 44% decline in the number of people wanting to legally register their work in Russia, while the total number of migrants decreased by only 8% (over eight months of 2015, according to the Federal Migration Service). If from January to September last year, over 3 million migrants registered their work in Russia, this year it was less than 1.7 million.
"Apparently, the radical changes made in 2015 to migration legislation did not work as expected, or at least were untimely under the economic crisis," states the article by RANEPA experts.
Several reasons influenced the decline in legal employment, says the article's author, Yulia Florinskaya, a leading researcher at the Institute for Social Analysis and Forecasting of RANEPA. "This includes the ruble devaluation, loss of interest in the labor market – the number of migrants numerically decreased. Some migrants stopped registering due to Kyrgyzstan and Armenia joining the EAEU. But there is also the legislation, which made entry into the labor market more expensive amid falling wages," she explains.
The fact that the number of migrants in the shadow sector has increased is obvious, says Florinskaya. But for now, the authorities are not inclined to ease registration conditions. "So far, the Ministry of Economic Development is only raising the coefficient for patents by 15%. Moscow even reduced its own, so in Moscow the (cost of a patent) will only increase by 5%. On what basis the federal coefficient is increased – I don't know, wages are falling," she marvels.
In the first ten months of 2015, Moscow earned nearly 8.1 billion rubles from selling patents to migrants (2.5 times more than last year). The growth in revenue comes amid a 40% drop in the total number of patents issued and will continue further due to the increase in the cost of a patent by about 5.3%.
"It is premature to claim that there is an increase in illegal employment due to the expansion of the patent system for foreign citizens to legal entities. For example, the decline in the inflow of foreign citizens may be due to the current economic situation, as well as due to the introduction of an exam for foreign citizens on knowledge of the Russian language, the basics of Russian history and law," noted Elena Lashkina, assistant to the Minister of Economic Development. She pointed out that the cost of a patent is set by regions, and added that the issue of easing registration conditions is not currently being considered. "At the same time, the issue of the law enforcement practice of the introduced norms is being discussed, and a number of amendments are currently being prepared to eliminate bottlenecks in document processing," Lashkina added.
The Ministry of Education and Science, on the contrary, proposes to slightly tighten conditions, at least in Moscow. The ministry sent a recommendation to the capital's authorities to additionally introduce an oral part of the Russian language exam (currently, regional authorities can set their own rules for testing knowledge). The number of patents issued across Russia is currently lagging behind last year's level, Florinskaya noted; in Moscow, their number is also falling month by month. "It seems everyone thinks the stream is bottomless and people will endlessly pay for everything," the expert comments.
10-12 thousand rubles will fix everything
Lawyers believe that the decline in the attractiveness of the Russian labor market is primarily due to economic reasons. "The reduction in the number of migrants is caused more by the deterioration of the economic situation in the country, and above all the ruble devaluation, than by changes in legislation (regarding mandatory exams and the increase in the monthly tax on patent payment)," says Vitaly Dzhaparidze, senior lawyer at the company "Nauka Prava".
"The changes to migration legislation since 2015 have only simplified the procedure for obtaining permits both for workers – citizens from CIS countries – and for employers. Organizations no longer need to submit applications for quotas for required positions to the employment center and obtain permits to attract foreign labor, and foreign citizens no longer need to obtain work permits. This procedure has been preserved only for foreigners with a visa regime of entry," he explains.
According to him, foreigners, on the contrary, are now interested in legalizing their legal status. "This is primarily due to harsh sanctions for both foreign workers and employers. In case of illegal employment of a foreign citizen without the necessary documents, a fine and mandatory administrative expulsion will follow for Moscow and St. Petersburg, including their regional subjects. For the employer, for just one failure to notify (the obligation to notify the migration authority within three days of concluding/terminating an employment or civil law contract with a foreign citizen) a fine of up to 1 million rubles is provided," says Dzhaparidze.
According to lawyers, most migrants do not take the exam on knowledge of Russian, history, and basics of legislation, preferring to buy the corresponding certificate. "Taking the exam at the migration center in Sakharovo costs 600 rubles. However, about 80% of migrants, at least in Moscow, buy certificates through intermediaries for 4-6 thousand rubles," says a source familiar with the situation. "The same scheme works for obtaining a medical certificate – in Moscow it can be bought for 6 thousand rubles. So a migrant may not know a word of Russian and be an HIV-infected psychopath, but 10-12 thousand rubles will fix everything," he says.
The problem is also acknowledged by the Moscow City Department of Economic Policy and Development. According to its head, Maxim Reshetnikov, they plan to ban accepting medical certificates from third-party organizations in the second half of 2016 (currently, only one third of migrants purchasing patents undergo medical examination directly in Sakharovo).
More Ukrainians, fewer Central Asians
The number of CIS citizens present in Russia as of November 2015 decreased by an average of 9% compared to November 2013, excluding Ukraine, according to experts from RANEPA based on data from the FMS and the central database of foreign citizens. 'The situation with Ukrainians is unclear; they have not yet realized that all benefits are being closed, and therefore migrants from Ukraine remain among the worst legalized in Russia. Which direction practice will take, and how much conditions will be tightened for them, depends on local authorities,' notes Florinskaya.
This year, due to the crisis in Ukraine, the number of migrants from that country increased more than 2.5 times. According to Rosstat, for January–August 2015, net migration (number of arrivals minus departures) of Ukrainians to Russia amounted to 94,000 people, compared to 36,000 for the same period last year. For most other directions, there is currently a decline.
'The inflow of foreign citizens from Ukraine has increased many times over. Moreover, this is characteristic not only for Ukrainians working under the patent system, but also for Ukrainian citizens obtaining work permits for highly qualified specialists,' notes Dzhaparidze.
Comparing data for November 2015 with November 2013, experts noticed that the number of arrivals from Central Asia decreased the most, including from Uzbekistan (by 23%), Tajikistan (by 19%), Azerbaijan (14%), Moldova (8%), and Kyrgyzstan (6%). 'So far this is not a problem, but it seems that the decline is ongoing, and our demographic concept has a target of 250-300 thousand (growth),' reminds Florinskaya. The risk of population decline in Russia exists already this year, she believes.
Russia maintains a small increase in migration from non-CIS countries, but it is provided by post-Soviet countries classified under this category – Georgia and the Baltic states, according to the RANEPA monitoring. Meanwhile, internal Russian migration is growing: the population continues to concentrate in Moscow, the Moscow Region, Krasnodar Krai, Tyumen Oblast, and also in Crimea. The number of relocations within Russia this year increased by 86,500 people, or 3.5% (compared to January–August 2014).
'The migration decline of the population continues in the regions of the north and east of the country, as well as the North Caucasus. Many regions in Central Russia and the Volga region are losing population due to migration. Despite migration growth from international migration, 50 regions of the country experienced migration population decline in January–August 2015,' experts note.
Qualified foreigners not needed
But if the number of migrants from the CIS as a whole did not decrease significantly, then visitors from developed countries – the EU, USA, Canada, and others, from which both tourists and highly qualified specialists, as well as investors and businessmen, arrived – decreased substantially, according to the monitoring. By the beginning of autumn, the number of foreigners from such countries had almost halved, and from the USA, Finland, Great Britain, and Spain – even more, by 60%, experts calculated. The number is decreasing across all groups: tourists, students, specialists, and businessmen; the decline has been ongoing for more than a year, approximately since the summer of 2014.
Russia has become less in need of foreign specialists, the Ministry of Labor announced on November 20. Quotas for the next year for visa countries, including for qualified employees, have been significantly reduced. 'The need approved by the interdepartmental commission under the Ministry of Labor of Russia for 2016 is 213,929 people, which is 77.6% of the need for 2015,' the ministry's press service said.
At the same time, the government plans to reduce the allowable share of foreign workers that business entities are allowed to hire. In particular, according to a proposal by the Ministry of Construction of Russia, a draft resolution prepared proposes to reduce the share of migrants in construction to 65% of the total number of company employees.
The final decision may still change, however, noted the head of the Ministry of Labor, Maxim Topilin. 'The Ministry of Construction is now checking to avoid a situation where we introduce a 65% share from January 1 and our construction sites come to a halt, so there will be a conciliation meeting in the government,' he explained.
Elena MALYSHEVA, Yulia KALACHIKHINA.
Based on materials from Gazeta.ru