Three thousand euros to anyone who helps place an engineer in a job at Siemens AG – such an unusual initiative was recently announced by the world-famous German industrial giant, which is trying to find qualified workers to cope with the growing flow of orders for its products.
According to Expert magazine, Siemens is not alone. Thousands of European firms and companies, primarily those involved in manufacturing, are experiencing difficulties in finding qualified personnel. An increasing share of the pension-age population, a birth rate below the natural replacement level, and a decline in interest among young people in technical professions are the main factors negatively affecting the European market for skilled labor.
One of the first EU member states where the staffing situation reached a critical point was Germany, which is one of the economic and political heavyweights of the Union. As one of the main ways to solve this problem, EU leadership is considering the possibility of easing access to the internal labor market for migrants from third countries with higher education and sought-after specialties. Berlin is likely to be the first to take this step.
Continuous disruptions
According to the German Institute for Economic Research, in 2007, the country was short of about 23,000 engineers. According to institute experts, these vacant positions cost the German economy about €3.5 billion per year. Compared to 2006, the number of vacancies increased by a third. Despite some slowdown in European economic growth observed since the second half of last year, demand for highly qualified specialists in Germany still significantly outstrips supply.
Experts warn that given the demographic situation, the shortage of qualified personnel in the German labor market will only grow. Over the next four decades, experts predict at least two demand peaks. The first, according to calculations from the Cologne Institute for Business Research, will occur in 2012-2015, when the baby boomer generation (those born in the first post-war decade) will begin to retire en masse. According to the German Ministry of Economics, by 2014 the shortage of engineering and technical personnel in the country could reach 95,000; in addition, the economy will need 135,000 research workers.
But the problem will reach its greatest severity by 2050. By that time, the country's working-age population will decrease by more than 10 million, down to 30 million. The number of highly skilled labor resources (workers with a university degree or professional specialized education) will decrease by 2 million. This shortage will also threaten positions that do not require long-term specialized education: "If there are not enough engineers to design new machines and mechanisms, naturally fewer technicians and workers will be needed to assemble, maintain, transport, and sell them."
More migrants. Good and smart
Representatives of German business have been complaining for years about the difficulties they face in hiring the right workers. Experts suggest several ways to mitigate the current crisis: increasing the employment rate of women, youth, and older workers; lengthening the work week; and changing policy regarding labor migrants.
Germany is one of the few EU countries that has imposed restrictions on work for citizens from Eastern European EU countries. For citizens of third countries (i.e., from outside the European Union), the process of obtaining a work permit in Germany is fraught with even greater bureaucratic difficulties. According to David Arkless, head of the German employment company Manpower, the restrictions imposed by immigration policy are one of the main obstacles to finding the necessary specialists. The flow of labor migrants to a number of European countries, primarily Denmark and Germany, has noticeably decreased.
According to experts, Europe has today become a magnet for unskilled workers from around the world. The lion's share of educated labor migrants heads to Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Switzerland, and primarily to the United States. Many of them received higher education in the European Union. According to some estimates, in the EU, for every 17 unskilled immigrants, there is only one with higher education, while in the United States the situation is almost diametrically opposite – one unskilled migrant for every 11 highly qualified specialists. In Germany, according to independent German expert Heike Pete, the situation with immigrant qualifications is even more critical: in 2000-2003, only 3% of all immigrants could be classified as highly qualified specialists.
To counter negative trends in the labor market, in early July two German government ministers – Interior Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and Labor Minister Olaf Scholz – presented to their colleagues an action plan for partial reform of the immigration system, with the main emphasis on attracting immigrants who are specialists with higher education. At the same time, according to the plan's authors, the proposed measures will make it more difficult for migrants with insufficient qualifications to find a better life in Germany.
According to the proposed draft of immigration law changes, foreigners – graduates of German universities and qualified workers who have worked in their specialty in Germany for at least two years – will receive the right to an unlimited residency status. In addition, the minimum salary threshold that each candidate for permanent residence must receive may be lowered. Currently, before applying for permanent residency, a foreigner must prove that his annual income is at least €86,400. It is expected that this figure will be reduced to €63,600.
At the same time, Germany has already extended until 2011 (the maximum possible period under EU law) the restriction, expiring next year, on the free movement of labor migrants from Eastern European countries to Germany. The German government justified the restriction, imposed in 2004 after the first eastern enlargement of the EU, by the need to protect the domestic labor market from an influx of cheap labor from neighboring states.
Hot Autumn
The changes in immigration law proposed by the German government are in line with the European Union's policy on this issue. Creating attractive conditions to increase the number of "right" migrants, while simultaneously creating additional barriers for low-skilled immigrants and illegal immigrants, is one of the priorities of the pan-European government.
In early July, an informal meeting of interior and justice ministers of the 27 EU member states unanimously approved the draft of the "European Pact on Immigration and Asylum." Some provisions of the pact have already begun to be implemented: in June, the pan-European "Return Directive" was signed, which establishes common EU standards for the detention, custody, and deportation of illegal immigrants. Also nearing completion is the work, started in October 2007, on introducing a European equivalent of the American "green card" – the "blue card," which will allow qualified specialists from third countries to move freely throughout the Union in search of work. As European Commission President José Manuel Barroso said at the project's presentation in 2007: "By implementing the blue card project, we are sending a clear signal: specialists from around the world, welcome to the European Union!" After the project was discussed by justice and interior ministers in Luxembourg in early June, it will undergo hearings in the European Parliament's Committee on Civil Liberties in mid-September.
And a month later, in October, the authors of the blue card will defend its necessity at a plenary session of the European Parliament, which must make a final decision on this issue. In mid-October, during the Brussels EU summit, the final signing of the "European Pact on Immigration and Asylum" by the leaders of all 27 states is also scheduled.
German politicians and their EU colleagues face a difficult "hot autumn," which will be marked by one of the most sensitive and delicate issues – immigration. It is not excluded that European immigration legislation, which today in some areas resembles a patchwork quilt of 27 patches, will finally sink into oblivion by the end of this year and be replaced by a unified pan-European policy with minor local fluctuations.