25/1/0
Russia is becoming an unattractive country for labor migrants. This trend can be tracked using St. Petersburg as an example. According to the head of the regional FMS department, Elena Dunaeva, by the beginning of 2015, 7,000 more foreigners had left the city and region than in the same period in 2014, and 5,000 fewer had entered. Thus, the city and region are short of 12,000 people. Dunaeva predicts that in 2015 the number of labor migrants will decrease by 15-20%.
In turn, the head of integrated cleaning of highways in the central district of St. Petersburg GDP "Center" Evgeny Vikhnevich emphasizes that a third of migrant employees have quit the city's road services.
Where have foreign workers disappeared to?
Not long ago, labor migration was called one of the main problems of the Russian economy. Statements were made repeatedly that the president had set the task of creating 25 million high-performance jobs by 2020. However, mostly low-skilled workers are coming to the country, lowering the overall level of education and increasing the crime rate. Now many are asking in horror who will sweep the yards, dig trenches, and work on construction sites.
The chairman of the international alliance "Labor Migration" Nikolay Kurdyumov confirms that the topic of a possible outflow of migrants is extremely popular now. However, he explains that the reasons for what is happening are not only economic. For example, in January and February, foreign workers traditionally go home and return in March.
It would be a mistake to say that the crisis had no effect on the situation. Representatives of Central Asia, before going home, exchanged the money they earned in Russia for dollars; accordingly, the fall of the ruble did not work in their favor.
One might suppose that the introduction of a mandatory paid test on knowledge of the Russian language, legislation, and history led to a decrease in the number of arrivals from Central Asia. However, Nikolay Kurdyumov considers this a minor factor. According to the latest data, on average only 10% of test takers fail the exam. Moreover, a number of regions have the right to revise the list of questions in the test. For example, Moscow has significantly simplified it.
As one of the factors that led to the outflow of migrants, one can name the increased cost of obtaining a patent on the territory of the Russian Federation for citizens of neighboring countries. In some regions, including the capital, one must pay 4,000 rubles per month for it.
"This makes the migrant think. The figure must be multiplied by 12 months. It turns out they have to pay almost three times more than last year. But at the same time, they can move to other regions where a reduced rate is in effect," says Kurdyumov.
The question is which country the "fugitives" will choose for earnings. Kurdyumov believes that migrants are unlikely to go en masse to Kazakhstan — the country's need for labor is small compared to Russia. Mostly people are needed for agricultural work and construction.
It will be very difficult for residents of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan to find work in Europe and Southeast Asia. Although both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have a certain quota for work, for example, in South Korea. But its size is completely meager. No more than 1,000 people can go to work in Korea. At home, migrants will hardly be able to find work. Over the past years, no changes for the better have occurred in the economies of Central Asian countries, and national currencies, as before, lose to the ruble.
"Yes, the migrant community is grumbling. The ruble is falling, the patent has become more expensive. Many declare that they will leave. They can be understood. But I do not think the situation will change radically. March, April will come, and people will again be drawn to Russia," Kurdyumov believes.
There is another nuance in all this: today about 1.5 million labor migrants are on the FMS blacklist for violating Russian laws. They will not be able to come to Russia. For some, the ban is for one year, for others for two, and for some for all five years. Moreover, many migrant workers learn about their name on this list only at the border.
Will Russians manage without migrant workers?
Sociologist, chief specialist of socio-economic programs of the "Center for Social and Labor Rights" Pyotr Biziukov does not believe that labor migrants are needed by Russia. "Everything that happened was beneficial to employers. One has to pay well for normal work. But why, if you can pay a migrant half as much? If there is a good salary and work under an outstaffing contract, then there will always be people willing to work. There are many unemployed residents in Moscow. Large cities are overflowing with them," says Biziukov.
The chairman of the movement "Tajik Labor Migrants" Karomat Sharipov emphasizes that his compatriots in 99% of cases worked for foreign investors, because even a clothing or food market in Russia, as a rule, has an owner with an offshore. This means that sanctions have also affected the situation of migrants.
In addition, many natives of Tajikistan who worked in Russia not in the most prestigious industries indeed wanted to return to their homeland after the ruble collapse, but, surprisingly, they cannot do so. They entered Russia using internal passports, without foreign ones. Now the rules have changed. Holders of internal Tajik passports for entry into their country must obtain a certificate from the embassy or consulate that they really worked in Russia. It costs about 3,000 rubles.
“I assume that the FMS and the diplomatic corps of Tajikistan could conclude an agreement. Citizens themselves want to leave, but they are told: ‘Pay for the certificate.’ I do not rule out that the outraged may go to the walls of the Tajikistan embassy. I wrote about this problem to the ambassador. It is necessary to organize at least a temporary corridor for two or three months so that holders of internal passports can leave Russia,” Sharipov is confident.
The chairman of the movement says that today a situation has developed in which labor migrants are practically not needed by Russia. Engaging in unskilled labor is practically impossible, and migrants have no opportunity to find work in manufacturing or the agricultural sector because these industries in our country are in decline.