"Russkaya Germaniya" notes that officials today are not undertaking to give a reliable forecast of the number of refugees that Germany should prepare to receive in the near future. The federal government estimates their number at about 500 thousand people per year for the period up to 2020. That is another two and a half million asylum seekers: together with the 1.1 million who arrived last year, the cabinet's internal estimates feature the figure of 3.6 million people. This is a "purely technical" forecast of the Ministry of Economy, which may change in one direction or the other, but last year's data indicate that it is naive to expect a reduction.
In 2015, the forecasting of the number of refugees began with a "moderate" 250 thousand, by the end of the year the actual figures exceeded one million. If earlier mainly young single men ended up in Germany, now, according to the Ministry of the Interior, 80% of those arriving in Germany via the so-called "Balkan route" are women and minors.
As the same Interior Ministry states, refugees in Germany reliably disappear: the number of "lost" reaches 13 percent. In response to a parliamentary inquiry from deputies of the Left party, ministry representatives reported that about 130 thousand people – approximately every tenth registered refugee – did not make it from the initial registration points to the housing provided for refugees. What happened to these people? Either they left Germany, moving to other countries, or they are in the country illegally.
At the same time, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge, BAMF) is increasingly less able to reach agreements with other EU states, which according to the practically non-functioning Dublin Agreements should bear responsibility for people found on their territory, regarding the return of asylum seekers from Germany to them. In 2014, Germany actually managed to "return" to other EU countries every fifth refugee who, by law, should have been sent there; in 2015 – only every tenth. Greece, Hungary, and Italy are unable to cope with the human flows and do not take refugees back.
At the same time, Germany is making real attempts to persuade many asylum seekers to voluntarily return to their homeland, providing refugees willing to go back with travel payment and other financial assistance. What does the country actually provide to refugees who agree to return?
There are various projects; most of the funds are paid to returnees under the so-called REAG/GARP program ("Reintegration and Emigration for Asylum Seekers in Germany/Government Assisted Repatriation Programme"), the financial burden of which is borne by the federation, the federal states, and the International Organization for Migration (Internationale Organisation für Migration, IOM). Citizens of EU states are excluded from the program unless they have been victims of human traffickers and forced into prostitution.
Not all refugees who have agreed to return to their homeland, or asylum seekers who have been denied asylum, receive assistance, and not all who receive it get the same amount. "Resettlement grants" are paid only to those persons who have managed to convincingly demonstrate that they have no means of their own. The amount depends on the country of origin. Refugees have no legal claim to these payments, even if all conditions are met.
The REAG/GARP program covers transportation costs for sending to the homeland – a ticket for train, bus, or plane. If a refugee leaves by car, he receives 250 euros for fuel. In addition, people are paid so-called "travel assistance" (Reisebeihilfe) – 200 euros per person over 12 years old, 100 euros per child. Asylum seekers from most Balkan states do not receive this money – last year, residents of Kosovo, from where the flow of refugees has noticeably increased, were the latest to lose it. The agencies funding the program believed that the increase was precisely due to the possibility of receiving this money.
Immigrants from the Balkans also do not receive start-up assistance (Starthilfe). Its maximum amount (500 euros per adult and teenager, 250 euros per child under 12) is paid to voluntary returnees to Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Ghana. Syrians, like citizens of many other states – from Sudan and Somalia to Ukraine and the Russian Federation – receive a smaller amount – 300 euros for adults and 150 for children.
For Kosovars, there are separate programs in a number of federal states. In particular, URA2, applied in eight states, including Berlin and North Rhine-Westphalia: in addition to counseling and psychological assistance for those voluntarily returning to Pristina, the German state pays a one-time "resettlement grant" (50 euros), provides one-time material assistance for rent (up to 600 euros), education (500 euros), and business start-up (up to 3000 euros for "special business ideas").
For the REAG/GARP program, the federal budget allocated 10.1 million euros in 2016. AMIF, the European Union's special Asylum, Migration and Integration Fund (Asyl-, Migrations- und Integrationsfonds), also provides funds for financing returnees. The main point of funding such programs by the state is an attempt to relieve the social system and, if possible, resolve hopeless situations – in particular, by motivating those people who will not receive asylum but whose cases are dragging on for years to voluntarily leave Germany.
In 2015, under the REAG/GARP program, 37,220 people left Germany, about 32,000 of them citizens of Balkan states. Refugees from regions where conflicts are raging use repatriation program services much less frequently. Overall, according to the Nuremberg Office for Migration and Refugees, the number of those who used the opportunity to voluntarily return to their homeland with German material support has tripled over the past year.
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