Are talks about a mass exodus of migrants from Russia greatly exaggerated?
In search of answers to these and other questions, "Lenta.ru" spoke with the migrants themselves and representatives of national diasporas.
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"In two weeks, there was only one request from a Tajik citizen to help buy a ticket home. Can that be called a mass exodus?" says Gavkhar Dzhuraeva, head of the human rights center "Migration and Law." "I don't know where the forecasts that a quarter of foreigners are ready to flee came from. These data are provided by organizations that work with foreign visitors mainly on a commercial basis."
At this point, Ms. Dzhuraeva pauses meaningfully. In the silence, there is a hint that the panic benefits someone, as it could provoke a rise in prices for intermediary services in legalizing migrant workers.
"Our people, of course, like Russians, are experiencing currency fluctuations. The salary, which used to average $600, has fallen by half at today's exchange rate. The Kyrgyz are especially suffering. Now the exchange rate of their local currency is higher than the ruble. But workers have nowhere to go anyway. Even if the ruble collapses again, a mass exodus from Russia is unlikely. Migrants will cling to their Russian jobs until the very end, even when they can send home not $200 but $50. Most have no work back home. Sure, one could lie on the couch at home, but then who will feed the family?"
According to Dzhuraeva, an outflow of foreign workers is indeed being observed now. But this happens every December. Traditionally, the peak of migration is in spring and summer, and many try to spend the New Year holidays at home with family. But while foreigners are not expressing a desire to return "for good," there has been a wave of complaints about salary delays. Mainly from workers in housing and communal services and construction companies.
"Recently, we secured the payment of 520,000 rubles to a Tajik construction crew," the human rights defender continues. "Although the total debt to them reached 800,000. The employer wrote off the 'shortfall' as 'legalization' of money. We fear that against the backdrop of the crisis, the growth of non-payments will snowball. We do not see any other trends in the migration sphere yet."
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Almazbek Kigizbaev, a native of the Chuy region of Kyrgyzstan, has been coming to Moscow for work shifts for five years. He started his "career" as a laborer. Now he works as a carpenter in a utility company in the Eastern District of the capital.
"I get 20,000," he says. "Together with my friends, I rent a one-room apartment. I pay 4,000. Before, I could send home $500 a month. I have two children there. Now I can only send $100. I used to spend 5,000 on food, now it's 8-9. If there were work back home, I'd leave immediately. But I live in a village. There's nowhere to get a job there. I have a teacher's diploma. With it, you can go to budget companies. But they only pay 10,000 there. That's if you're lucky. It's not enough to live on, only to keep from starving. Many of us are thinking about Turkey and Korea. They are also visa-free for Kyrgyz. If you try, you can earn up to $1,000 a month. But it's very far. So I'm putting up with it for now. I won't leave Moscow yet. Maybe my wife will have to come with me to earn money. And the children will stay with their grandmother."
Kubanychbek Kozhoev, president of the All-Russian Kyrgyz Congress, believes that although the economic situation of migrants has worsened, there are no alternative labor markets to Russia, at least for Kyrgyz, for now.
"Despite the fact that money has become catastrophically insufficient for both rent and living expenses, I do not yet see panic among my compatriots," explains Kozhoev. "On the contrary, everyone lives in hope of positive changes. Today, Kyrgyzstan is supposed to join the Customs Union. In this regard, our citizens expect improvement in conditions. At least, some administrative relaxations for migrants. We believe the situation will improve."
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In the All-Russian Congress of Uzbeks, the exodus of compatriots was noticed. However, they are unsure what to attribute it to: economic conditions or New Year holidays. They say it will be possible to say for sure only in a month. But the demand for tickets to Uzbekistan is now higher than at the same time last year. This may be due to an active campaign launched by the government of Uzbekistan to return compatriots to their homeland.
Human rights activists from the "Migration and Law" center claim that of all post-Soviet republics, only Uzbekistan urges its citizens not to leave the country. The authorities explain that "far from their native lands," Uzbeks "lose their national identity and culture." Heads of district administrations (aksakals) were even given a plan from above on how many people they must persuade to return home.
"A policeman constantly visits my relatives who live in the Samarkand region of Uzbekistan, asking when I will return," says Toshpulat, a market vendor. "He threatens to fine them. We have work here. There are many vacancies at the weaving factory. The problem is the salary. In Moscow, even today with the collapsed ruble, I earn about $300 a month. There, I wouldn't earn more than $100. So for now, it's more profitable for me to work here. But I know that many compatriots, against the backdrop of the dollar's rise and pressure from local officials on families, have decided to wait out at least this winter at home. I hope the situation will change by spring."
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The association "Tajik Labor Migrants" does not share optimistic expectations. And they note that the Russian financial instability is now compounded by the tightening of migration legislation. Starting January 1, 2015, to obtain a legal labor contract, a foreigner must have a voluntary health insurance policy, a certificate confirming knowledge of the Russian language, and monthly purchase a work patent for 4,000 rubles. On average, legalization will cost a one-time fee of 20,000 rubles.
– And that's not counting the tickets and the cost of getting a foreign passport back home, – complains Karomat Sharipov, chairman of a public organization. – In current conditions, the money invested simply won't pay off. Previously, a migrant earning an average of 15,000 rubles would get about 2,500-3,000 Tajik somoni. With that money, his family could buy a bag of flour and not starve. Now wages have halved. It's just become unprofitable to live in Russia. Income does not cover living expenses. Our government is at a loss. There are no jobs for young people. In agriculture, where wages are meager, there is an expansion of Chinese workers. But in the republic, recruiters have become active in hiring men for hot spots – Iraq, Syria. They promise monthly salaries of up to $5,000. People will go, of course, even knowing the risk of being killed. What else can they do? They have to feed their families.
Migrants would be happy to compensate for the exchange rate difference by raising the cost of their services, but they can't.
– I've been working as a caregiver in Moscow for several years, – says Ramziya Onaeva, a trained doctor from Tajikistan. – I've built up my own clientele. People refer me by word of mouth. I earn about 30,000-40,000 rubles a month. Before, it was more than enough. But I can't raise my prices. The crisis is not only affecting us, but also the employers. The daughter of my patient who used to pay for my help recently lost her job herself.
– This is the market. There is a general economic downturn, – agrees Kubanychbek Kozhoev, president of the All-Russian Kyrgyz Congress. – Against this background, it's somehow impossible to talk about raising prices. For employers, migrants are attractive precisely because of their cheaper labor, as well as their endurance and work ethic.
To mitigate the situation, human rights activists from the public organization "Migration and Law" have developed their own anti-crisis package.
– We are asking to postpone the entry into force of the law on mandatory Russian language exams, and to make Russian language courses free for migrants, – explains Gavkhar Dzhugaeva, leader of the movement. – In the crisis conditions, we ask for concessions for the children and grandchildren of veterans from former USSR republics. Let them have a chance to support their grandfather who fought for the country, let them have the right to work in Russia without bureaucracy. I cannot say how many such veteran families there are. The number of those in need should be determined by the authorities of each country. But I think it would be fair and would be a significant gift to veteran families for Victory Day.
According to the Federal Migration Service, there are currently more than 11 million labor migrants in Russia. Another approximately 4.5 million foreigners work illegally.
"I don't think we will see a massive reduction in migration in the near future," said Konstantin Romodanovsky, head of the FMS, in an interview with Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "We see changes in the ruble exchange rate against the dollar. But if we look at the ratio of the ruble to the national currency of the migrants' home countries – Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, or Kyrgyzstan – they change proportionally. Based on this, we can say that it is unlikely that Russia will become unattractive for external labor migration."