The authorities – and in the US, population counting is naturally done by the state – neither confirm nor refute this hypothesis, and generally prefer not to spread the word about the landmark date (there were no official celebrations, for example). Politics, however: in a few days, elections to Congress, and the chances of the ruling (and presidential) Republican Party to retain control of the highest federal legislative body, according to pollsters, are not good. Illegal immigration is very high on the pre-election agenda. The Democrats have turned the authorities' inability to curb the emergence of new Americans from the bosom of Mexico into a political bast shoe that they methodically insert into every line for the Republicans (as if they themselves, when they were the majority in Congress, did better).
According to unofficial but generally accepted estimates, there are about 12 million illegal immigrants in the country, the vast majority of whom are "Hispanics," i.e., people from Latin America. Federal censuses, conducted every ten years, count them as Americans. However, it is believed that at least another million do not show up in any censuses: they avoid even such contacts with the authorities. Just in case. All these factors determine the accuracy of the count: relatively guaranteed plus 12 million or so, and, with a finger to the nose, plus another million, or one and a half, or two. The official figures are as follows: on average, every 7 seconds a birth is recorded in the States, every 13 seconds a death, and once every 31 seconds an immigrant enters/flies in/comes in/runs in/crawls into the country. Based on these figures and data from the last census, adjusted by current statistics, the magical moment of America's "300-millionth" was calculated.
The previous mark with six zeros was passed in 1967. Life magazine correspondents appointed a boy just born in a maternity hospital in Atlanta as the 200-millionth American. Although the choice of this particular child was very conditional, there was no doubt about the accuracy of the date: illegal immigration was not a noticeable problem at that time.
Thus, America's population has increased by half in less than 40 years – a result completely atypical for all other developed countries. And it is not at all about immigration (although the 300-millionth American, if we consider it to be a newborn, is most likely "Hispanic" – this population group has the highest birth rate). Immigration accounts for just over a third of population growth. The rest happens, so to speak, naturally, and not only due to low mortality and high life expectancy. Americans have very favorable birth rates – incomparable with other developed countries. The average American woman gives birth to 2.1 children in her lifetime – slightly above the so-called replacement level (at which the population remains constant). At the same time, the average for the EU is 1.47, and in once Catholic and large-family Spain and Italy it is even 1.28. If we exclude immigration (and the topic "what is immigration and how to fight it" is now at the peak of fashion throughout Europe), the population of these countries will halve in 40 years. The US population will grow by more than 100 million over the same period: according to demographers' forecasts, America will pass the 400-million mark by 2043.
There is no immediate and unequivocal answer to the question – what distinguishes Americans from residents of all other developed countries. There are many hypotheses, and all of them, one way or another, sooner or later come down to the American national character. What the American (as well as any other) national character is, again, is not known for certain to anyone – but it is quite obvious that one of the most characteristic traits of this character is optimism. To an outsider, American optimism sometimes seems feigned, sometimes stupid, often unfounded. Yet optimism really does exist in America. Different researchers and observers seek its sources in different places, but most often they mention religion. They say sincere faith encourages and allows a much brighter outlook on the future. By the way, it also considers childbearing a very godly deed. There is no doubt that the average American is much more devout than the average European, Japanese, Russian, or even neighbor Canadian – but this statement does not explain why in America high birth rates are also characteristic of the sociological groups "atheists" and "non-believers." (These groups, according to the American statistical system, are different: an atheist cannot prove that God does not exist, therefore he believes in that, while a non-believer does not believe in anything at all, neither in God nor in his absence.) However, both non-believers and atheists, in terms of cheerfulness, differ little from believers, which, in fact, allows us to speak of optimism precisely as a trait of the national character, no longer directly related to religion.
One amusing hypothesis explains the American phenomenon by the spaciousness of the country – they say that in the US, there is simply physical room to breed and multiply. There is undoubtedly a kernel of truth here: the average population density per square kilometer in America is shockingly low for a developed country. At the same time, the lowest birth rate on the planet is recorded in the city-states with the highest number of people per unit area: Singapore and the Chinese Hong Kong and Macau (1.06, 1.02, and 0.95 children per woman, respectively). Zero birth rate altogether is observed in another city-state, the Vatican City, but the problem there, presumably, is not overcrowding. Incidentally, in America, the average floor area of a single-family home has increased from 93 to 195 square meters over the past half-century. At the same time, housing of the same quality costs very differently in different regions – from California with its "closer to half a million, and don't even think of approaching" to the growing cities of Texas and the Midwest, where prices for such 195-square-meter houses in a green suburb comfortably fall within $130–150 thousand. Yes, one has to pay for cheap housing by relocating, which, as is well known, is as bad as two fires – but apparently, Americans are fine with such a fee: they remain the most geographically mobile nation among economically developed ones. Of course, these houses are bought on credit, which again implies a bright view of the future order of things – that is, optimism and the associated confidence in tomorrow.
In political terms, optimism is fraught with the need to comprehend the consequences of some undertaking (such as the Iraqi one, for example) as they unfold. Demographic indicators, however, only benefit from carelessness and a certain lack of understanding of consequences.
Alexander DYMELIN.
Русская Германия