Vladimir Mukomel, head of the sector for studying migration and integration processes at the Institute of Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Lenta.ru about who is leaving Russia and why.
– Judging by the mood on the internet, Russians are gripped by a desire to leave the country. Is this just talk or is the problem of emigration really very acute now?
– Such a problem really exists, society is split. This is connected not only with the events in Ukraine; now there is mobilization, restructuring of society, economy and government in Russia, isolationist sentiments are emerging. This frightens many people.
Some people are considering the possibility of emigration, but one should not exaggerate their numbers. This is a projective mood, more of a wish that will hardly be realized by the majority. However, those who have the opportunity are now revising their life plans and creating 'fallback airfields' in the West to use when life in Russia becomes truly uncomfortable.
– Can news about another 'prohibitive law' become the last straw in a person's desire to emigrate? How important is the information background?
– Remember the anecdote about an elephant's appetite – 'Of course he'll eat it, but who would give it to him.' To leave, there need to be conditions in the country where the person plans to go, an 'airfield' must be prepared. This takes a certain amount of time. Leaving means needing to solve a bunch of everyday problems: children's education, helping parents, housing... All issues must be resolved in parallel. I'm not even talking about work.
The situation is changing, and many believe not for the better. Accordingly, the intensity of searching for options increases. But this does not mean that people instantly abandon their housing and go abroad.
– How many people move from words to action?
– Sociologists usually ask the question: 'Would you like to leave the country?' As a rule, the numbers range from 15 to 20 percent. But as soon as respondents are asked whether they are taking any concrete actions to leave, the numbers drop sharply to 3-4 percent or even less. Therefore, one must treat the moods recorded on social networks and in sociological surveys very, very carefully. I believe that only 2-4 percent are really ready to leave Russia, radically changing their social environment, no more.
– So it's not yet time to sound the alarm that all the best, smartest people will leave Russia?
– No. The desire to get an education, a job, improve qualifications, and possibly also wait out a certain period in the West, has certainly increased, as has emigration. But I would not speak of catastrophic scales of emigration yet.
– What kind of people are in these 2-4 percent of leavers?
– First, these are young people who have just gotten an education and are planning to find work or continue their studies in the West. Most of them will return to Russia under favorable conditions or will live in two countries.
Another part of the emigrants is the intelligentsia, who are already of mature age, have savings, and can afford to buy housing in the West, get a residence permit, and wait out the aggravation of the situation in Russia there.
– And is the flight of scientists from Russia continuing?
– For scientists, work has always been the most important thing. If there is a contract, they go. The vast majority of scientists work in the West on temporary contracts, on grants. If they have long-term contracts, they can leave with their families. But then the question arises about the future of children, where to provide them with education. Most likely, a wait-and-see position will prevail in the near future.
– Do mainly residents of the capital emigrate, or are people from the regions also actively leaving?
– If in the early to mid-1990s mainly residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg left, now people emigrate from everywhere. From small towns in Siberia, as many leave as from megacities. If you go around American universities, you will see students from all regions of Russia, there will definitely be residents of small towns.
– And what else distinguishes this wave of emigration from the previous one?
– The geography of the territory of origin has changed, the composition has changed. But overall, I would not say that big changes have occurred. In the 90s, emigration was ethnic – Germans, Jews, Greeks left. Today, emigration has ceased to be ethnic; representatives of all nationalities leave. More Russians than Jews go to Israel, and more Russians than Germans go to Germany.
– In the 90s, Russians fled to the West in search of a better life. What are emigrants of the new wave looking for?
– The economic situation in Russia is not catastrophic now, unlike the times of 'sausage' emigration of the 80s and the first years of independence. If you have money, all goods can be bought in Russia. For people, the social environment, safety for themselves and family members, and freedom to express their feelings become more important.
– Where do they go most often?
– Most often, they go where it is comfortable to live and work. Different segments of the population go to different countries. For retirees, comfortable living conditions are more important; it could be England, Portugal, Italy, the Côte d'Azur, Bulgaria. It all depends on income. A retiree can rent or sell an apartment in a megacity and with that money buy housing no worse in the same Bulgaria or Italy.
Young people are more interested in work; they have slightly different requirements. The selection process is individual; one is interested in a megacity, another in a small university town.
– Do our emigrants manage to integrate into the environment, or do they forever remain Russians at heart, nostalgic for birch trees?
– Many of those who manage to settle in the West experience a certain discomfort because their social environment remains in Russia. They fall into a comfortable, convenient life, but the culture there is still a bit different. Many communicate exclusively with people from Russia. Although it is difficult to speak of any Russian diaspora abroad.
Among scientists there is a joke that if one Chinese person appears in a university department, then in a year there will be five Chinese in that department. But if a Russian appears, then in the coming years there will not be a single Russian there. Unfortunately, this is a consequence of the fact that in Russian society the level of interpersonal and intergroup trust is very low. Many carry this lack of trust abroad as well.
But children, especially if they move at an early age, quickly integrate into the host environment. In the second generation, they virtually cease to be Russians.
– And how many people return to Russia?
– There is no such statistics; there are statistics on border crossing registration. But we must understand that the world has changed. Speaking about a person leaving and then returning can only be conditional. There are many examples of cross-border families that live not only in two, but even in three countries. The husband works at a university in one country, the wife in another, the children study in a third. This is a normal situation.
Now it is more correct to speak not about brain drain, but about brain circulation. A specialist works in Russia today, tomorrow in one Western country, the day after tomorrow in another Western country, then again in Russia. And it happens that all this occurs within a year; different projects are implemented in different countries.