The problem of a shortage of experienced production workers is linked to the so-called “age wave,” which is the term used for the impending mass retirement of Americans born in the postwar twenty years. Anticipation of this problem is causing concern in both federal and business leadership circles. And this anxiety is by no means premature.
Rudolf Pinner, a staff member of the Washington urban research center, warns that the first signs of the impending “age wave” have already appeared: “Some people born during the postwar baby boom are already retiring. And the first large group of this postwar generation will apply for their Social Security benefits in the near year 2008. That is, we are approaching a time when many experienced specialists will leave the workforce, and it will be impossible to completely replace them with the required number of young people, because the birth rate from the mid-60s - in the next postwar generation - fell sharply.”
Demographers remind us that the postwar children born between 1946 and 1964 have by now become quite elderly people. And this, as federal statistics show, means that workers currently aged 55 and older will constitute 17% of the American workforce by the end of the current decade. Given the impending mass retirement and the low birth rate that shaped the second postwar generation, it is not hard to foresee that, starting in 2010, a production situation will arise in which retirees will begin to be called back to the jobs they left.
Victor Marshall, director of a gerontological research program developed at the University of North Carolina, believes that with the onset of retirement of the first postwar generation, it will become increasingly difficult to find replacements for them in the workplace. Although last year the overall increase in the number of older workers was 4.5%, in the long term the American workforce will not be aging but rather becoming younger. A public opinion poll conducted by the American Association of Retired Persons shows that 70-80% of Americans intend to work after retirement. Moreover, according to statistical data, by 2008 half of the current 1,600,000 federal employees will become eligible for pensions, and this will entail a decline in inspector qualifications, which, experts believe, will lower the level of education, design, and production.
David DeLong, author of the book “Lost Knowledge,” warns that the coming mass retirement could lead to an unprecedented decline in the qualifications of the workforce. “What is still not very well known or understood is the fact that the first generation of highly educated production and management professionals is beginning to retire, people who have deep knowledge of such complex technologies as, for example, computer technology, pharmaceutical production, and the global economy. This means that people retiring will take with them knowledge that their predecessors did not have, that they acquired themselves, but that is difficult to pass on to others,” he said.
Most experts say that since many older people want to continue working even after retirement, enterprises should devise working conditions that are attractive to retirees. Debra Russell, an employee of the American Association of Retired Persons who heads that organization’s department of economic security for older people, is confident that enterprises need to master completely new forms of cooperation with workers who have retired. She noted: “If you ask people of the first postwar generation what they want, they will answer: flexible working conditions. Retirees who want to work in some enterprise will seek part-time work or a shortened working day.”
Debra Russell adds that the latest advances in medicine have increased human life expectancy, and this is prompting enterprises to use various health-care measures to instill a healthy lifestyle in their employees, thereby reducing the cost of their health insurance. Many experts consider the strengthening of this trend to be a sign that in today’s technologized world, employers are beginning to recognize the value of their older but experienced workers. Dorcas Hardy, chair of the White House advisory committee dealing with gerontological issues, says that although many young workers work responsibly and with enthusiasm, older experienced specialists bring to the production process their own special vision of the matter they are engaged in.
Preparing for a conference on aging issues, scheduled for December and intended to draw up recommendations to President Bush on the employment of older people, Dorcas Hardy notes that the question of how to interest people in continuing their working activity after retirement will certainly be discussed. “The income a retiree earns affects his pension. That is, it increases its taxation. And this should be discussed. The opportunities of retirees who want to work only from time to time should also be discussed. But all these working conditions are connected with how the enterprise works and what laws can be adopted to meet the needs of the future workforce.”
Some experts propose introducing a system of gradual retirement, which would allow older workers, by giving up the forty-hour work week, to continue working part-time. This will entail changes in pension laws and many private pension plans. But in any case, all experts believe that employers who have not yet understood the significance of the approaching “age wave” for them need to think about the coming problem.
“Voice of America”