According to experts' forecasts, the German labor market is set to grow
As reported by "Russkaya Germaniya", the number of employed persons, according to IAB specialists' forecasts, will increase by 670,000 people in 2017 and reach 44.26 million workers. Particularly large growth is expected in the service sector, including the creation of many new jobs in childcare facilities, nursing homes, and outpatient care for the sick and elderly. "This is happening because our society is rapidly aging," the researchers explain.
In the public sector, as well as in education and healthcare, 270,000 new jobs are expected to appear. Their overall growth in these sectors will occur at a faster pace than before. At the same time, the number of part-time and mini-job workers will decrease by 50,000 people; the number of civil servants and small private entrepreneurs will also decrease.
New jobs will also appear in industry, but not in such numbers. Here, a predominance of 30,000 new jobs is observed in the manufacturing sector.
The average annual number of unemployed will be 2.57 million people, the lowest since German reunification in 1990; compared to the past year of 2016, it will decrease by 160,000. Today, one third of all unemployed receive monthly Arbeitslosengeld I (ALG I) benefits, two thirds receive Hartz IV benefits; according to IAB specialists' forecasts, in 2017, 14.1% of ALG I recipients will find permanent or temporary work; among Hartz IV recipients, only 3.2% will do so.
Data from the statistical service of the Federal Employment Agency in Germany (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) indicate a possible increase in the number of refugees and, consequently, a rise in the number of applicants for unemployment benefits. This increase, compared to 2015, could result in an additional 50,000 unemployed. "However, the good rates of production growth in the country will fully compensate for this increase in the number of unemployed," says Enzo Weber, one of the participants in the IAB study.
Already in 2016, the number of permanently employed people in Germany reached a record high. In this regard, Germany's gross domestic product growth was 1.9%. In 2017, absolute production volume will grow by 1.4%; the decrease of 0.5% is due solely to one factor – a larger number of public holidays than in 2016.
The accuracy of the above forecasts, according to specialists, is based on a vast amount of factual material. Such predictions in recent years have shown their reliability and have been confirmed in practice. At the same time, the researchers do not hide the fact that "economic risks have not been ruled out by anyone, especially given Brexit, the vulnerability of the European banking system, and protectionism."