More people are leaving Russia
In the first eight months of 2014, more people left Russia than in any full year of Vladimir Putin's rule, Rosstat data shows. In January – August 2014, 203,659 people emigrated from the Russian Federation. For comparison, in the same period of 2013, 120,756 citizens left the country for permanent residence.
For all of 2013, 186,382 people "departed" from the Russian Federation, which was the highest since 1999 (when 214,963 people left the country).
The difference between the number of departures and arrivals favors the latter, mainly due to migrants from CIS countries. However, the number of arrivals in the Russian Federation is growing more slowly than the outflow from Russia. Thus, the number of "arrivals" in the Russian Federation in January – August 2014 was 361,384 people, and in 2013 – 315,350 people. "The migration increase of Russia's population decreased by 16.2%, which occurred as a result of the increased number of departures from the Russian Federation (by 82.9 thousand people, or 68.7%)," Rosstat notes.
From the statistical agency's summary, it is evident that our compatriots are mainly leaving for the USA ("migration increase," i.e., the difference between those who arrived from this country and those who left for it, is negative here – minus 644 people), Germany (–588), Canada (–347), and Finland (–283).
It is time to talk about a new wave of Russian emigrants to the West. This time, the "philosophers' steamship" is carrying away primarily entrepreneurs.
Bloomberg lists the most notable of those who have already been forced to leave the country: the founder of the social network VKontakte, Pavel Durov, handed over operations and left, in his own words, to avoid providing security services with data on Ukrainian users of the network; mobile game developer Game Insight LLC moved its entire headquarters to Lithuania; Pavel Muntyan, one of the founders of the animation studio Toonbox, relocated it to Cyprus. "Russia is one of the key markets for us, but for the next few years, this market is apparently closed to us," says Muntyan. "Russians consider our cartoons not Russian enough. And we don't want to be Russian, we want to be international. Why lock ourselves in?"
Another example of recent emigrants is former employees of the portal Lenta.ru, who left the editorial office after the dismissal of Galina Timchenko and now work under her leadership in Riga at the online publication Meduza.
Labor market experts surveyed by Gazeta.Ru confirm: the "brain drain" is intensifying.
Two trends
"Overall, labor migration to Russia is positive, but due to inflow from CIS countries," notes Andrey Korotayev, head of the Laboratory for Monitoring Risks of Socio-Political Destabilization at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. "This is very important because Russia's population is growing mainly due to migration increase." But when it comes to high-skilled labor migration, the situation is fundamentally different. "There is an outflow of so-called 'white-collar workers,'" Korotayev states. "Indeed, in recent months, there may be an intensification related to sanctions and so on."
"People who want to capitalize on their brains seek to leave the country. Because in a 'reservation,' it is extremely difficult to engage in science, development, and serious research projects, as there is no opportunity to fully exchange information and technologies. Moreover, for many professionals and entrepreneurs today, leaving is a matter of ambition. If a researcher is cut off from the ability to participate in international projects, and a businessman is deprived of the ability to supply their products to external markets, they consider leaving.
What is the Russian market? It is just 146 million people plus complex logistics and an unfriendly bureaucratic environment. Of course, if brains can produce a product that is in demand on the market, they want that market to be as large as possible," says Roman Ivanov, head of the project CareerDriver.ru.
According to a study conducted by The Boston Consulting Group, HeadHunter, and The Network, 41% of Russians would agree to move to another country for work. Among the cities where Russian residents would gladly relocate, London leads. Then come New York, Paris, Berlin, and Barcelona.
But there is also an opposite, equally negative trend.
"Some foreign companies are starting mass layoffs of Russian specialists from offices abroad. This is especially noticeable in the oil industry and mechanical engineering, which are subject to sanctions. This, by the way, can be seen as a signal that the sanctions are serious and long-term. If a company has lost its sales market in Russia, it begins to get rid of the people who serviced that market – engineers, specialists, salespeople. These people will return to Russia. This has already begun," says Ivanov.
He clarifies that he is personally acquainted with HR managers of several European companies that are disbanding teams of Russian specialists. "There is a return of those who left to work in Europe and other countries," confirms Gleb Lebedev, research director at HeadHunter.
These returning specialists somewhat improve migration statistics without improving the economic situation. "Both trends are entirely determined by the geopolitical situation," Ivanov emphasizes.
Who is leaving
According to Lebedev, the outflow is noticeable in several areas at once. "These are, for example, research staff. Their departure is connected not so much with pay as with the very opportunity to work – the availability of necessary equipment, materials and the foundation which we have not developed or have lost. For entrepreneurs who are leaving, the determining factor is still the salary level, as well as such a subjective concept as 'standard of living' – some understand it as climate and cultural features, others as legislation and ease of doing business," says HeadHunter analyst.
"Everyone is leaving. Emigration has no sectoral focus," believes Ivanov. "From the perspective of individual sectors, nothing has happened to the economy, all problems are at the macro level."
The outflow may increase. "We will see the consequences of political changes with a time lag, because moving to another country is not a quick process. Those who started preparing in advance, for whom the political situation may have been the last straw, are leaving now," explains Lebedev.
How will this affect the labor market
In a normal situation, there is nothing terrible about the outflow of specialists, Korotaev reminds us. The more people go to other countries and the higher positions they occupy there, the more benefit they bring to the "home" economy. First, someone gains experience abroad and returns, passing it on, Korotaev says. And second, even those who remain abroad provide business connections for their country.
"Why did India manage to turn into a global IT office? Of course, there is low labor cost with sufficient qualifications. But it is very important that the middle and senior management of the world's largest IT companies largely consists of Indian specialists. Guess where an Indian specialist, all else being equal, would prefer to place an order – in China, Russia or India," says Korotaev.
Such emigration would also be beneficial for Russia, but the picture is completely different now. "Brain drain" will lead to a decline in the quality of technological and managerial processes in the country. The main problem for the labor market is that the economy is slowing down. It is hard to find a large company that is not preparing to announce layoffs of at least 10% in the next couple of months. Moreover, this is an optimistic forecast. All these people will need to be placed somewhere," notes Ivanov.
Thus, on the one hand, we are facing rising unemployment, and on the other hand, the shortage of qualified personnel, which is so often called one of the structural problems of the Russian economy, will persist and even increase. "Even in Moscow there is a shortage of highly qualified specialists," states Lebedev. "Even though overall competition among job seekers is high and continues to grow."
"The shortage of qualified labor will remain. The country has not modernized its vocational training system at all over the past four or five years," explains Ivanov.
Ekaterina MEREMINSKAYA.
"Gazeta.ru"