Scientists have predicted a decline in the Earth's population by 2100
According to scientists' estimates, the planet's population will peak at 9.7 billion people by 2064, then begin to gradually decline and reach 8.8 billion by 2100.
One of the parameters guiding the authors of the report was the fertility rate, which has nearly halved since the 1950s. Scientists assume that the rate will continue to decrease further.
In the summer of 2019, UN experts presented a different assessment of the demographic situation in the world. In their view, by 2050 the population will increase to 9.7 billion, and by the end of the 21st century, the Earth's population could reach 11 billion people.
The report noted that until 2050, half of the demographic growth will come from nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia, Egypt, and the United States. At the same time, Europe's population could decline.
As RFI notes, the IHME and UN estimates coincide in their assessments of the ratio of elderly people to children. IHME experts believe that by 2100, the number of children under 5 will decrease by 280 million compared to 2017 and will amount to 401 million. The number of people over 80 will increase to 866 million (in 2017 – 141 million).
The UN assumed that by 2050, the number of people over 65 will exceed the number of people aged 15 to 24, as currently the elderly represent the fastest-growing category of the world's population.