According to official data, between seven and nine million Ukrainians work seasonal jobs abroad
As Deutsche Welle reports, in recent years Poland has become the most popular European Union country for Ukrainian emigrants. In 2017, they were the largest group of foreigners who received residence permits in the EU, with the majority of the 662,000 permits issued by Poland itself.
These numbers are expected to grow in the near future. According to the World Bank, Eastern Europe will remain one of the regions with the fastest outflow of labor in 2019. Among Eastern European countries, Ukraine is projected to top the list for the year, losing nearly 1.5 percent of its working-age population. Already, according to official data from the Ukrainian authorities, 3.2 million Ukrainians work abroad permanently, while between seven and nine million find seasonal work there.
Poles fear losing Ukrainian labor force
No one can give exact figures on how many Ukrainians are employed in Poland, as many work in the country for a few months, then return home for a few months before heading off to work again. Estimates converge on the fact that over a million Ukrainians work in Poland overall, AFP reports.
However, the situation may change – given the planned changes to immigration legislation in Germany, many Ukrainians may move from Poland to that country. In Poland's construction and agricultural sectors, panic has been spreading recently – as they are dependent on Ukrainian workers.
"People are often illegally employed in these sectors, and these workers will go to Germany," says Krzysztof Inglot, head of a Polish recruitment agency, in an interview with AFP. His firm recruited about nine thousand Ukrainian workers for jobs in Poland. According to Polish employers' estimates, if half a million Ukrainians leave the country, it would have macroeconomic consequences in the form of a 1.6 percent drop in GDP.
These fears are not unfounded. According to a social survey conducted by OTTO Work Force, cited by the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita, about 40 percent of Ukrainians working in Poland are considering looking for work in Western Europe. A vivid illustration of these sentiments is the advertisements in Facebook groups for Ukrainians in Poland offering jobs in Germany with salaries low by German standards but significantly higher than in Poland.
The Association of Polish Employers and Entrepreneurs ZPP, in view of such sentiments, even appealed to the Polish government to simplify the procedure for employing foreigners, obtaining permanent residence permits, and even ease the path to citizenship.
Easing access to the labor market in Germany
The new immigration law in Germany, after months of discussions, was approved by the country's government in December and is expected to be voted on in the Bundestag soon. It aims to ease access to the German labor market for citizens of third countries, as Germany itself currently has 1.2 million vacancies.
"The biggest change is the equalization of skilled workers with vocational training and workers with higher education. In addition, the rule of preference (of EU citizens over others when applying for jobs – Ed.) is largely abolished," notes the German Institute for Employment Research (IAB).
The main barrier of having to have educational qualifications recognized in Germany, although it will remain, will offer new opportunities for foreigners interested in working in Germany, such as a six-month visa for job searching, a place for vocational training, or recognition of education. However, experts point to the strictness of the rules for obtaining new types of residence permits. "Therefore, it is unlikely that these generally useful instruments will be used on a large scale," the IAB adds.
More and more Ukrainians already working in Germany
The IAB has not yet made estimates of what the situation with Ukrainians on the German labor market will look like after the new law is passed. However, statistics already indicate an increase in the number of Ukrainians in Germany, including in the country's labor market.
As of March 2018, 138,000 Ukrainian citizens lived in Germany. About 43,000 Ukrainian citizens in Germany have official jobs and pay mandatory social security contributions. This is almost 10 percent more than a year earlier.
According to the Federal Employment Agency of Germany, almost nine thousand more Ukrainians are employed part-time in the labor market, earning small amounts and not paying social security contributions.