Analysis
Under a new wave of immigration (part 2)
End. Beginning: UNDER THE NEW WAVE OF IMMIGRATION (PART 1)<\/a><\/em><\/p>
What this means<\/strong><\/p>
In practice, the new system of relations between Russia and Western countries means the curtailment of scientific-technical and other cooperation, a reduction or complete cessation of investment in the Russian economy, and, most unpleasant, active opposition to Russia in all spheres of international trade with the aim of weakening the Russian economy.<\/p>
For a long time in Russia, it was repeated like a mantra that Europe depends on Russian gas, that Russia holds Europe by the throat with the gas valve, and that Russia is an energy superpower that dictates its terms to the whole world. However, as the Ukrainian crisis began to unfold, it turned out that this mantra is nothing more than self-deception; there is no dependence.<\/p>
Moreover, it turned out that Russia depends on the West, and depends very heavily – Europe's refusal to buy Russian gas and its replacement from other sources looms as huge economic problems for Russia. In conditions of extremely inefficient and backward industry, with no markets for energy exports, the country faces very unpleasant prospects ahead.<\/p>
Based on how the situation is developing, one can confidently say that relations between Russia and Western countries are damaged for a long time. Even worse, trust in Russia has been completely lost, and it is unlikely to be restored in the foreseeable future.<\/p>
This means that the economic situation in Russia will rapidly deteriorate.<\/p>
For those who think otherwise and find this incredible, it would be good to recall the fate of a country that fifteen years ago was cited as an example of an economic miracle, and whose economic model was partly planned to be adopted in Russia – we are talking about Argentina. Now it is a country with a ruined economy and high crime rates, whose residents are moving in large numbers to work in relatively prosperous countries like Chile and Mexico.<\/p>
Russians' hopes for China as an alternative to the Western direction have no basis. China never was and never will be an ally of Russia, as it pursues its own policy and all other countries for it are just pawns in its game.<\/p>
Moreover, Russia's weakening and its conflict with the West are only beneficial to China, because the prospect of Russia turning into a raw material colony of China is already clearly visible, with a real scenario of losing a large part of its territory and, possibly, even sovereignty.<\/p>
Most importantly, China is so heavily dependent on the West that under no circumstances will it support Russia, especially if the West makes this a condition for further cooperation with China. Therefore, one must realize that without cooperation with the West, Russia will face very bad times over a fairly long period.<\/p>
One must also keep in mind that Russia has a host of internal problems that will only worsen as the economic situation deteriorates. Given how many forces in the world are interested in exacerbating these problems and turning them into a hot phase, one can speak with a high degree of confidence about serious conflicts on Russian territory. What is currently happening in the territory of Southeastern Ukraine is a model of how the situation may begin to develop in Russia itself, given the multi-ethnic and multi-confessional composition of its population.<\/p>
Finally, given how rapidly civil liberties are being restricted in Russia, a scenario of closing borders and introducing exit visas, as was the case during Soviet times, is more than likely. So far, such a scenario seems fantastic, but already certain categories of Russian citizens are effectively banned from traveling abroad.<\/p>
Emigration<\/strong><\/p>
Despite the euphoria in Russia over the annexation of Crimea and the general patriotic upsurge, such a mood is unlikely to last long. Moreover, when economic problems begin (which may occur within a year, at most two), and internal conflicts start to flare up, the current euphoria will quickly give way to depression and aggression.<\/p>
All of this has already happened in Russian history, and repeatedly, so the scenario of how the situation will develop is quite clear. This same scenario includes a separate chapter on mass emigration.<\/p>
The main reason will be the same deteriorating economic situation and falling real incomes. This will force specialists to look for work abroad with subsequent naturalization in the country of work; this will become the main component of the new emigration.<\/p>
Another category of leavers will be children of wealthy parents. If mature people who own businesses in Russia or hold lucrative positions do not risk losing what they have and, despite the significant deterioration, will hold on until the end, then for their children they will try to ensure a normal future abroad.<\/p>
Therefore, Russia will experience an outflow of young people among those whose parents are able to send their children abroad for study, work, or through business immigration programs. In general, this process has been going on quite intensively over the last couple of decades, but in the coming years we should expect an avalanche-like increase.<\/p>
Already now we can say that a feature of the new wave of immigration will be that its backbone will consist of wealthy people from among successful businessmen and highly qualified specialists, as well as a large number of young people from wealthy families.<\/p>
Given that Kazakhstan is quite closely integrated with Russia, everything written above applies to it to some extent. As for Ukraine, that country faces a fairly long process of recovery and transition from post-Soviet relations to democratic ones modeled on the West. Obviously, this will be accompanied by economic difficulties, which in turn will lead to an outflow of a large number of skilled professionals.
At least at the moment, everything points to the formation of another powerful wave of emigration, comparable to the wave of the 1990s. Whether it will be as intense, or even surpass it, depends on how the situation develops.
One can also be sure that as soon as this wave becomes noticeable, obstacles to leaving will be put in place – the conditions for this are already prepared.
Unfortunately, the era of the post-Soviet NEP in Russia, by all indications, is coming to an end. The country is again transitioning to the status of a “besieged fortress,” where enemies and traitors are imagined everywhere. Russia has gone through this many times before, and each time it spawned waves of emigration, which were soon met with an iron barrier. One can assume that now the situation will develop along a similar scenario.
Yegor TROFIMOV.
“Russian Toronto”
