For the first time in human history, there are now more elderly people in the world than young children.
Current trends indicate that by 2050 this gap will become even more significant – for every child under five, there will be more than two elderly people aged 65 and over. As BBC notes, demographers have discovered and tracked this trend for a long time: in most countries, people are living longer and having fewer children. But how will this affect us? Or is it already affecting us?
Not enough "new arrivals"
Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, says: "There will be very few children and very many elderly people over 65, which will make it very difficult to maintain the global community in a normal state."
Murray is the author of a 2018 report in which he suggests that nearly half of all countries in the world are threatened by "birthrate bankruptcy" – not enough children are being born to sustain the population of a given state. "Just think of all the profound social and economic consequences facing a society where there are more grandparents than grandchildren," he adds.
According to the World Bank, in 1960 the global fertility rate was about five children per woman. Nearly 60 years later, it has halved to 2.4.
At the same time, socio-economic development has benefited those born in our time. In 1960, people lived on average just over 52 years. The current life expectancy in 2017 reached 72 years.
This means we need more and more resources as we age. Pressure on pension systems and healthcare is growing.
Aging population
The problem of an aging population is more acute in developed countries. There, fertility rates are generally lower, mainly due to economics: child mortality rates are lower, birth control is widely available, and raising children is quite expensive. In such countries, women often give birth later and therefore have fewer children.
Higher living standards mean people live longer. The best example is Japan, where life expectancy is about 84 years (the highest in the world) and where 27% of the population is over 65 (also the highest in the world). And what is the share of those under five in Japan? According to the UN, about 3.85%.
Both figures have long worried Japanese authorities, and last year the government announced plans to change the mandatory retirement age from 65 to 70. If (and when) this is implemented, workers in Japan will retire at an older age than anywhere else in the world.
But the imbalance we are talking about also threatens developing countries. In China, the share of elderly people is smaller than in Japan (10.6% of the total population), but due to strict birth control measures introduced in the 1970s, the world's second-largest economy has a relatively low fertility rate – an average of 1.6 children per woman. And those under five in mainland China now account for less than 6% of the total population.
Among countries with high fertility rates, African nations dominate. For example, Niger is "the most fertile country in the world": in 2017, there were an average of 7.2 births per woman. However, these same countries have high child mortality rates. In Niger, it is 85 children per thousand, one of the highest in the world.
Replacement rate
Share of those aged 65 and over,in selected countries and regions
• Japan 27%
• Italy 23%
• European Union 19.7%
• USA 15.4%
• Russia 14.1%
• China 10.6%
• Brazil 8.5%
• Turkey 8.15%
• India 5.9%
• Iran 5.4%
• Middle East\/North Africa 4.9%
• Sub-Saharan Africa 3%
UN\/World Bank data
For demographers, the number 2.1 is magical. It is believed that this fertility rate is sufficient for a population to reproduce itself. The most recent UN data shows that only slightly more than half of the world's countries (113) meet this requirement.
Researchers also point out that countries with higher child mortality and lower life expectancy need a rate of 2.3, and this threshold is reached by only 99 countries.
Due to declining birth rates in many countries, populations are likely to shrink significantly – despite the fact that the global population is growing (expected to reach eight billion by 2024).
One of the most extreme examples is Russia: the fertility rate there is 1.75 children per woman, and as a result, a sharp decline in population can be expected in a few decades. The UN Population Division estimates that Russia's population will decrease from the current 143 million to 132 million by 2050.
A shrinking and aging population primarily means a reduction in the number of workers, leading to lower productivity, which in turn slows economic growth. In November last year, the IMF warned that due to an aging population, Japan's economy could shrink by more than 25% over the next 40 years.
"The demographic situation affects all aspects of our lives," emphasizes George Leeson, director of the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing. Will technology help cope with the economic effects of the rapidly aging population of our planet?
Family and policy
Meanwhile, there is a consensus among experts: governments must act to defuse the "aging bomb" that is already ticking.
In 2015, China revised its "one-child policy" and in 2018 indicated that all restrictions would be lifted within a year. According to an editorial in the People's Daily, the official newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, having children is "a family and state matter."
However, lifting restrictions is unlikely to be a panacea. In 2018, 15.2 million children were born in China, the lowest number in over 60 years. Chinese scientists attribute this decline in fertility to a decrease in the number of women of reproductive age, as well as the tendency of young families to postpone having children for financial reasons—especially families where educated women do not want to play the role traditionally assigned to them in society.
Older and Healthier
Population experts warn: to mitigate the effects of an aging population, the state needs to care for the health of the elderly. Healthy people can remain productive longer, and this also reduces healthcare costs.
Moreover, as specialists from the International Labour Organization emphasize, economies in countries where women work on an equal footing with men are less prone to downturns. The higher the share of women in the workforce, the more resilient the economy.
Can such recommendations from scientists help, will they be heeded? The clock is ticking.