A state fund will be created in Russia to provide guarantees to banks when issuing mortgage loans to participants of the compatriots resettlement program who do not have Russian citizenship, said Yevgeny Manyatkin, head of the Department for Compatriots Affairs of the Federal Migration Service (FMS). "With guarantees from the state fund, they will be able to get mortgage loans from banks immediately upon arrival in Russia," the official said.
The FMS also promises to grant citizenship to resettlers under a simplified procedure within six months and to pay relocation allowances. "Their travel will be paid for, a social package will be provided, and in addition, a one-time allowance will be paid," Manyatkin clarified. Those moving to Russia for permanent residence will be able to bring 5 tons of cargo at state expense, and another 5 tons if the number of family members exceeds three.
According to Yevgeny Manyatkin, the amount of the allowance will depend on the place where the resettlers decide to settle. In regions classified as group "A," with a difficult demographic situation, payments will be 60,000 rubles per program participant and 20,000 rubles for each family member. This applies to such border areas as Kaliningrad, Amur Region and Tyumen Region. In regions of group "B," where large-scale projects are planned and therefore qualified personnel are needed, the amount of payments will be 40,000 rubles for the program participant and 15,000 for family members. In the regions least in need of population influx, category "V," resettlers will not receive one-time allowances.
Of the 55 constituent entities of Russia that have declared their desire to participate in the program to receive compatriots, the FMS selected 12, where resettlers will be able to come in 2007. They include Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk, Irkutsk, and Tver regions. Kaliningrad Region will be the first to receive compatriots. After the regional programs are approved, resettlers will be able to come to another 33 entities.
By 2012, the FMS hopes to accept 300,000 program participants, not counting their family members. In 2007, the regions expect 23,000 people, the official noted. Already, 30,000 applications for participation in the program have been received, the head of the FMS Department for Compatriots Affairs rejoices.
The reason for such government concern for resettlers is clear. The government hopes to solve two problems at once: demographic and the shortage of qualified personnel. According to experts, for example, the Vologda Region will be short of more than 200,000 specialists in 10 years. In the Trans-Urals, there is already a large shortage of agricultural workers. In the Kaliningrad Region, there is a shortage of doctors, teachers, and cultural workers. According to experts from the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, a real labor deficit in Russia will occur between 2010 and 2015. And according to a World Bank report, by 2025 the demographic situation in the country will pose a threat to the economy. By then, Russia's population will have shrunk by 17 million people, and the share of people over 65 will reach 25%.
However, experts have mixed assessments of the program. For example, bankers are cautious about the idea of issuing mortgage loans to resettlers even with state fund guarantees. "I believe that providing state guarantees for mortgage loans to such categories as military personnel and resettlers is correct," says Sergei Gandyuk, vice president of the European Trust Bank. "The question is how these guarantees will be used. The fact is that these categories of citizens are considered a risk group: it is difficult to determine their job stability in the absence of long-term work experience in one place."
"One-time payments from the state to resettlers are not sufficient proof of solvency for the bank," agrees Denis Zeman, head of the mortgage transaction support department at Promsvyazbank. However, in his opinion, banks will gladly take on the "state order" if clarity is brought to the issue of the amount of guarantees provided. This also worries Oleg Skvortsov, deputy chairman of the board of Absolut Bank. "I believe that to successfully solve such a problem, it is necessary to work out the technological and methodological components in detail, clearly describing the regulations and lending procedures," the banker says.
And sociologists believe that the program is not able to solve the problems facing Russia today. "One should not expect that millions will come; we can only talk about a few tens of thousands," says Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya, director of the Center for Migration Research. "And, for example, the Khabarovsk Region needs ten times more specialists than will come—not forty thousand, but four hundred."
Most likely, the majority of resettlers will settle west of Lake Baikal, the expert believes. It is unlikely that the one-time payments proposed by the government will force people to settle in Primorsky Krai. "Those who are really doing poorly where they currently live will come. I don't think Russia is interested in such people," says Elena Tyuryukanova, a leading researcher at the Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expressing a different kind of concern.
According to the expert, Russians currently living in Uzbekistan, dissatisfied with government policy in Georgia, as well as Ukrainians who have not found a more prosperous place, may respond to the offer. Residents of Tajikistan are more oriented towards temporary migration to Russia, while Armenians who really wanted to come to Russia have long since done so, Elena Tyuryukanova believes. Thus, we risk getting a "very specific contingent," the expert says. In addition, it is unknown whether resettlers will want to take the jobs offered by the employment service. For example, an analysis of questionnaires from those wishing to move to the Kaliningrad Region showed that most dream of working in the oil industry or the service sector, and not at all as teachers.
Only 10 families instead of the expected 300,000 highly qualified specialists moved to Russia from CIS countries in the year of the compatriots resettlement program. This was reported by a representative of the Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation, Evgeny Manyatkin.