1. How many refugees arrived in Germany in the past year?
There is no exact figure. However, from the beginning of September 2015 to the end of July 2016, the computer system EASY registered 900,623 people. EASY stands for Erstverteilung der Asylbegehrenden (initial distribution of asylum seekers). In this system, refugees arriving in Germany are recorded anonymously, without names and passport data. Therefore, double registration is possible, for example. Moreover, some of those who crossed the border may have then left for other European countries.
2. Are fewer refugees arriving this year?
Yes, undoubtedly. The largest number arrived in Germany in the fall of 2015, but since the beginning of 2016, the numbers have sharply declined. While in January EASY registered about 91,600 people, in June it was only 16,300.
3. Why then is the number of asylum seekers growing?
Because the refugees who have already arrived in the country are moving into another category. EASY simply records those who have physically crossed the border. But the statistics of the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) already indicate those who have legally filed an application for asylum. Here, names and passport data are also recorded, if available.
In 2015, 441,899 people became officially recognized asylum seekers. From January to July 2016, 468,762 similar initial applications were registered. This means that after increasing its staff, BAMF significantly accelerated the processing of applicants. As a result, refugees who have been in a "pending" state for many months now receive official status faster, allowing them to legally stay in Germany until their asylum request is decided.
4. Do all applicants receive asylum?
No. The examination of an asylum application lasts at least several months, and it is granted to far from all applicants. In 2015, roughly every second application was rejected, so only 50 percent of applicants received asylum. In 2016, the quota of positive decisions exceeded 60 percent.
The increase in the quota and the decrease in the number of arriving refugees are interrelated processes. Last year, numerous residents of so-called safe countries of origin crossed the German border, primarily from the Balkans and North Africa, who in principle cannot count on obtaining asylum in Germany. The adoption of various measures made it possible to sharply reduce the number of such cases. Among those arriving in recent months, the percentage of people from countries currently at war is significantly higher. These are primarily Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Therefore, the quota for granting asylum is now higher.
5. How are refugees distributed across Germany?
For distribution, a scheme called the "Königsteiner Schlüssel" (Königstein Key) is used. It takes into account tax revenues and population in the federal states and is usually used to determine the share of these states in funding national projects. According to this scheme, the most populous state of Germany, North Rhine-Westphalia, accepted the most refugees.
6. How much money does Germany spend on refugees?
All leading German economic research institutes have attempted to answer this question, using various methodologies. There are no exact data; it all depends on what and how is counted. In most studies, the costs of supporting one refugee for a year are estimated at approximately 12,000 to 20,000 euros.
Based on these estimates and its own calculations, the German Federal Ministry of Finance included expenditures of 99.8 billion euros in its medium-term planning for 2016–2020. Thus, we are talking about roughly 20 billion euros per year from the federal budget.
In 2016, the largest expenditure item (6.9 billion euros) will be support for state and local authorities, which bear the direct costs of receiving and supporting refugees. As applicants are officially granted asylum, the structure of expenditures will change.
The fact is that a person granted asylum, if he has not found work, is entitled to numerous social benefits (payment for housing, health insurance, children's education, etc.). The German Ministry of Finance assumes that in 2020, the main part of the planned 20 billion (8.2 billion) will go precisely to social support for refugees.
7. Will the reception of refugees lead to an increase in unemployment?
Yes. The German government assumes that by 2020 the number of unemployed will increase from the current 2.7 million to more than 3 million people. However, so far the reception and support of asylum seekers have led to the creation of new jobs and increased employment. The Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) alone doubled its staff numbers in one year from 3,000 to 6,000 people.
In addition, Germany will additionally need 25,000 teachers in general education schools and vocational schools, 14,000 educators in kindergartens, and thousands of social workers. Employment growth is also observed in the construction industry, security companies, and local authorities.
8. What are the chances of refugees finding employment?
They are still low. According to the Federal Employment Agency, in the first seven months of this year, 136,000 people from those countries whose residents most often receive asylum found jobs in Germany. That is 30,000 more than in the previous year. However, most of them arrived in the country before the summer of 2015.
At the same time, more than half of those who applied for asylum this year are under 25 years old and thus have good chances of learning a profession. A survey conducted by the German Association of Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) showed that on average 22 months pass from the arrival of a young refugee to the start of vocational training. This time is spent on processing the asylum application and on learning the basics of German.