For 15 years now, the number of citizens wishing to leave the country has been continuously growing in Germany. The government and demographers claim that rumors of a brain drain are exaggerated. Willingness to leave does not always translate into action.
Every fifth German citizen is ready to move to another country for permanent residence. These are the results of a survey by the German Institute for Demographic Research (IfD) conducted in May-June 2007. Among respondents under 30, 33% are seriously considering emigration. Since 1993, the number of those wishing to try their luck abroad has been continuously growing. However, this does not at all mean an actual outflow of population.
The authors of the study claim that in the coming years the percentage of potential emigration will reach post-war levels. In 1950, every third resident of West Germany expressed a desire to leave the country. As the country recovered and living standards rose, the trend declined. In 1958, the figure fell to 10% and remained at a low level for the next 45 years. However, in the early 1990s, the curve began to rise again.
Emigrants cannot be counted
Data from the Federal Statistical Office confirm this trend. Since 1991, the number of Germans who have moved abroad for various reasons has been continuously growing. In 1991, 99,000 citizens left the country; in 2001, 109,000; in 2003, 127,000; in 2006, 150,000 people. Against the backdrop of low birth rates and a shortage of skilled labor, this would seem to be an alarming signal.
However, in Berlin, they are reacting calmly to this data for now. Firstly, migration flows move in both directions: in 2006, 104,000 German citizens returned to the country. Secondly, reliable statistical data on the scale and nature of emigration does not yet exist. The Federal Institute for Population Research (BfB) took on this task on behalf of the government in 2006.
Project leader Lenore Sauer explains the lack of precise figures for two reasons. Firstly, many emigrants initially plan to stay abroad only temporarily and decide to settle only after living there for a couple of years. Therefore, when they leave, they do not deregister and formally continue to live in Germany. Secondly, due to the abolition of visa requirements and the liberalization of the labor market in the EU, the population has become more mobile overall, and it is becoming increasingly difficult for demographers to track their movements.
Work, climate, taxes
It is the countries of Western Europe that often become a second home for Germans. Most often, emigrants choose German-speaking countries – Austria and Switzerland. In 2006, the champion was Switzerland: 18,000 citizens of the Federal Republic of Germany moved there. Sociologists explain this trend by the large number of job vacancies and the relatively painless integration into society.
Employment, according to various sources, is the main or second most important reason for emigration. German citizens with higher education also often migrate to Scandinavian countries and Ireland - countries where the job market is also growing. The 'classic' destinations - the USA, Canada, and Australia - remain popular.
Among other motives prompting them to change their place of residence, Germans most often cite low taxes, family circumstances, and a higher quality of life - warm climate, good ecology, better compatibility of family and work. The latter group of emigrants most often prefers southern European countries: Spain, Italy, and Portugal.
Scientists leave for a short time
Finally, the USA and Great Britain are particularly popular among those wishing to pursue a scientific and academic career. According to the European Commission, 70,000 specialists in exact and technical sciences from Germany currently live and work in the USA alone. At home, German scientists are deterred by the rigid hierarchy in universities and research institutes, lack of funding, and bureaucratic obstacles.
In its latest demographic report, the government states that there is no brain drain problem in the country. On the contrary, Germany even benefits from scientists going abroad. The fact is that most of them go abroad on grants and temporary contracts. Their goal is not to emigrate but to gain experience that will be useful for a successful career at home. According to government estimates, at most 5% of German scientists intend to stay abroad.
Nevertheless, the Ministry of Education and Research is sounding the alarm: if reforms are not carried out in the coming years, the outflow of scientific personnel will become a serious problem for Germany. The ministry, headed by Annette Schavan, has introduced a number of bills to the Bundestag that are intended to increase the competitiveness of German universities and research institutions. In addition, by 2010, Berlin will increase science funding to 3% of GDP.
Tatiana PETRENKO.
Deutsche Welle