Both statistics are based on data from citizen registration offices (Meldestellen), meaning they classify as emigrants those who have deregistered from their permanent address, indicating another country in the “further stay” field; the difference is mainly the result of using mismatched criteria for assessing the personal situation of citizens with two or more registered addresses. And both, according to insurance service experts, are incorrect: the actual number of those caught up in the wanderlust amounts to at least 250,000 annually. Simply not everyone considers it necessary to inform their home country about their movements, for fear of losing future social benefits and out of elementary caution – to avoid becoming victims of double taxation in distant lands. Modern emigrants risk nothing else – naturally, if they choose points on the globe united into a single European space. Within the EU, there is an almost identical health insurance system and very similar rules for buying and renting real estate, and if you are outside Germany for less than 183 days a year, you don’t even have to deregister. But even if we consider risk the possibility of ending up in a foreign language environment (not everywhere have community-type diasporas taken root well enough to guarantee newcomers German-speaking doctors on the next street and a pub around the corner), it is offset by rosy hopes for a better life. According to a June study by the Forsa sociological institute, about 40% of Germany’s population aged 14 to 49 “from time to time” think about changing their place of residence, 8% entertain such thoughts “seriously.” One and a half percent of them were already packing their suitcases at the time of the survey.
14.3% of potential emigrants expect a higher standard of living abroad, one in four dreams of good weather compared to Germany. 25.5% cite the situation on the German labor market as a reason for possible departure, 36.5% cite the overall economic situation in the country. And this information was obtained, as already said, last month – during days colored by football euphoria and a clear hint of a rise in national spirit, when news from parliamentary halls was listened to much less than reports from stadiums.
What will the numbers become when, after the applause dies down and the black-red-gold flags are put away in closets until better times (will they come?), the unemployed read the Bundesrat resolution of July 7, announcing the tightening of sanctions from August 1 against “those evading job agency offers” up to complete loss of benefits? When, by a strange coincidence, those still working calculate what the upcoming VAT increase along with the rise in health insurance contributions will cost the family budget? “It is too early to talk about a catastrophe that could result in a complete collapse of the economic system,” says Klaus Bade, professor at the University of Osnabrück and sociologist, “but the situation can already be characterized as migration-suicidal... Many have a choice of where to go. Many have no choice – it doesn’t matter where, they need to leave immediately.”
“Statistical studies do not provide a basis for conclusions about the causes and consequences of mass emigration,” say the authors of the annual report on migration flows, published in Wiesbaden. Of course they don’t – it is quite naive to try to draw any conclusions other than those already made long ago: Germany has lost its economic attractiveness (now not only for top-class professionals but also for people with secondary education), and near and far abroad offer a hardworking person much more opportunities for self-realization. Germany needs asparagus pickers and auxiliary workers to uproot rotten trees. In Switzerland and Austria, Norway and Sweden, Belgium and the Netherlands – high-skilled construction workers and engineers, chefs and hotel managers. And doctors, doctors, doctors... “German medical degrees are traditionally valued worldwide, while in many rural regions of Germany there are no specialists capable of providing emergency care until a team from the nearest city arrives,” Klaus Bade sadly states.
In the words of those who love beautiful metaphors, Germany loses one metropolis every two years – during this period, a crowd of people leaves it, numerically comparable to the population of Leipzig. But there is no need to fear the country turning into a desert – the ratio of outflow to inflow of residents is still in favor of the latter. For now – last year, immigration to Germany did not reach the 600,000 mark, customary since reunification. A total of 579,000 foreigners came for permanent residence – 4% less than in 2004. The reduction was mainly due to ethnic Germans: they, excluding family members of other nationalities, numbered only 31,000 (2004 – 50,000, 2003 – 62,000). Summing up the figures with data on those who returned home after a long absence, statisticians get a “immigration-emigration” ratio of plus 79,000 people.
However, even the positive figures offer little salvation. The country’s population is replenished by immigrants who are not always highly qualified, and even those who arrive with higher education diplomas often have to seek their place in the sun as taxi drivers or cleaners. “To prevent a real catastrophe, the authorities must reconsider their policy along the following lines: we accept per year as many doctors (engineers, computer scientists, nuclear physicists) as representatives of the same professions emigrate for permanent residence abroad,” believes Monika Schnaid, an employee of Raphaels-Werk. “And with the right approach to pan-European norms regulating migration processes, this could happen in the near future.”
It is only a pity that we won't get to live in this beautiful time... But maybe we will get to live on the shore of a warm sea, where huts are filled with breeze, and the sun reflects in the windows? Learning to milk goats and pick olives is probably no harder than, having lost one's mind under the weight of the label 'long-term unemployed', retraining as a 'one-euro' street and toilet cleaner. And, enjoying the result of one's labor and dreams of a future German pension, hoisting the black-yellow-red flag on the roof in the name of social reforms of one's own distant government.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, in 2005, 128,000 persons of German nationality moved to Germany for permanent residence, while 144,800 left the country. Net loss: 16,800.
For representatives of other nationalities, the statistics are as follows: entry – 579,300, exit – 483,600, net gain – 95,700.
48.8% of potential emigrants intend to stay in Europe after leaving. Germany's favorite country traditionally remains Spain: 22.1% would prefer it as a place of residence. Further preferences are as follows: 12.5% choose Italy, 9.7% Switzerland, 7% Sweden, 6.2% Greece, 5.1% Great Britain, 3% France.
Among those who would prefer the rest of the world to old Europe, 22.3% dream of New Zealand, 12.3% of the USA, 6.9% of South American states, and 4.6% of Asian countries.