The most interesting part of such statements is usually the information on the distribution of quotas across different immigration programs and what innovations to expect in the near future. Let me remind you that currently, all popular federal immigration programs are effectively closed; the processing times for applications waiting in line have stretched indefinitely; the previously centralized flow of immigrants has been spread across dozens of small provincial programs, the eligibility criteria for which are constantly changing.
Naturally, under such conditions, everyone expects at least some improvements. However, nothing new was said in the statement by the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, despite the usual grand words that this plan prepares Canada for economic development for many years to come.
From the ministry's statement, one can conclude that its primary task in 2014 will not be to accept new applications, but to process those that are waiting in line. This is logical, especially considering that in 2015, the current government plans to launch with great fanfare a new immigrant selection system where application processing time will not exceed one year. This cannot be done if previous applications are not processed. One can hope that in 2014, all those who applied under the economic class, including business programs, should receive a response from the embassies.
Figures announced by the minister
The total number of immigrant visas issued remains at the same level – Canada plans to accept between 240,000 and 265,000 immigrants in 2014. By the way, over the past couple of years, there have been discussions in the Canadian press about whether Canada needs immigration at all and in what quantity. The opinion is often heard that immigration should be closed because it brings Canada nothing but problems and expenses.
On the other hand, with the same consistency, economists publish conclusions that without an influx of fresh labor, Canada's economy faces slower development and social problems related to an aging population, and they recommend increasing the annual immigrant inflow to 400,000. So it is still completely unclear which way the pendulum will swing in 2015. The fact that quotas were left unchanged for 2014 is already a good sign.
There are changes in the distribution of quotas, although very small. In particular, the share of immigrant visas issued under the economic class increased from 60% to 63%, with a total of 164,500 visas. The main increase in this class came from the Canadian Experience Class program, targeted at those who have worked for at least one year in Canada. First and foremost, this program is designed for graduates of Canadian universities and colleges who find work in Canada after graduation.
In total, under this program since its inception (2008), about 25,000 people have received permanent residence in Canada. Given the fact that applications under this program are increasing more and more, the ministry increased its quotas from 10,000 to 15,000 per year.
Also, quotas for provincial programs increased from 44,500 in 2013 to 47,000 in 2014. The attractiveness of provincial programs for the Canadian government primarily lies in the fact that it sees them as a way to direct immigrants to small towns in various provinces – in 2012, 42% of applicants expressed a desire to settle outside Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, compared to 20% in 2000.
However, it should be noted that there is no exact data yet on how these desires have been realized and how the flow of immigrants is distributed in practice. It is no secret that most immigrants continue to gravitate towards large cities because there are more opportunities there, and the government has no mechanisms to force immigrants to live in the province under whose program they applied. It should also be noted that in light of the implementation of the new Express of Interest System in 2015, the future of provincial programs is still unclear, since the point of them is completely lost after the introduction of the EOI system.
The new Express of Interest System, which is being introduced with the consent of all provinces, is based on the fact that future immigrants must initially submit applications to a single center using a simplified procedure, as was once implemented for the Skilled Worker Class (Simplified Application Process). Applications are planned to be entered into a single database, access to which will be open to employers from all provinces. Each employer will have the opportunity to select applicants with the qualifications they need.
After that, selected applicants must submit a full package of documents to immigration authorities for final assessment. If the result of the review is positive, they will be issued immigrant visas. Applications that did not interest employers will be removed from the database after a certain time, with the possibility of reapplying.
Thus, the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration plans to provide the Canadian labor market with the necessary specialists, maintain short application processing times, while avoiding the creation of queues. The EOI is based on similar schemes in operation in Australia and New Zealand.
It is not yet possible to say how successfully this system will work, although some aspects that raise questions are already visible. I would like to draw attention to the following. Given that the number of immigrants admitted will depend on labor market demand, it is possible that the inflow of economic class immigrants may decrease, since it is not certain that demand for foreign workers will be high enough, and that the needed workers will be able to meet the immigration requirements. In this light, the Canadian Experience Class program (primarily through studying in Canada with subsequent employment) looks increasingly attractive and reliable.
Unfortunately, Minister Chris Alexander's statement said nothing about the prospects of the federal business programs Investor and Entrepreneur, which are currently closed to applications. It appears that the federal government has no clear plans for them, and it is unknown whether these programs will operate at all. In this regard, the federal government's irritation is understandable regarding the resumption of applications for Quebec's Investor and Entrepreneur programs in August 2013, although this intake was open for only two weeks with limited quotas on the number of applications accepted. It is possible that these programs will also face the same fate as the federal programs.
When it comes to federal business programs, so far the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration Canada is showing great activity and enthusiasm only for the Start-Up Visa program, which is primarily aimed at attracting high-tech companies and startups to Canada. This is largely due to the great interest shown by Canadian business incubators and investment funds, which are involved in the pre-selection of candidates, significantly easing the ministry's workload. In particular, in addition to the main Start Up Visa (SUV) program, which came into effect on April 1, 2013, a separate Business Incubator stream began operating under this program on October 26.
Another class of immigrants under the family reunification program (Family Class) received a quota of 68,000 immigration visas, or 26.1% of the total visas issued. The main focus is on issuing visas to spouses and children. There is no information yet on what will happen with parents, or whether there will be any progress in processing applications for parent sponsorship that are waiting in line. The remaining 10.9% of the allocated quotas, or 28,400 immigration visas, are allocated to refugees.
Conclusions
It is obvious that radical changes in the immigration sphere should occur only in a year, with the introduction of a new system for selecting immigrants. It is not yet clear whether these changes will affect provincial programs, and what will happen with federal business programs, but in any case, the beginning of 2015 will be a time of change. Moreover, in 2015, federal elections are to be held, which may also change a lot, including in the area of immigration.
For now, the entire year of 2014 will continue to be a time of stagnation, differing little from 2013, so there is no reason to expect any drastic improvements in immigration matters. The only positive aspect that I personally see in the prospects for 2014 is the hope for the completion of processing of applications waiting in line at the embassy, especially for those under business programs.
Now a few thoughts for those considering immigration to Canada. I personally recommend first considering opportunities for education in Canada, which opens the door for further employment in Canada and applying under the Canadian Experience Class program. Although this is not the fastest way to obtain permanent resident status, it is the most reliable and most promising way to build a successful life and career in Canada. Moreover, having a Canadian education, and especially Canadian work experience, will give you an undeniable advantage when applying for immigration under the new EOI system, as Canadian employers primarily prefer those with Canadian education and Canadian work experience.
For those planning to go through business programs, I strongly recommend looking into the federal Start Up Visa program (if you are involved in innovation) and provincial programs aimed at investors.