After this message, immigration issues immediately became the main political topic. New data that more than half of the jobs created in recent years in Britain are held by foreigners added fuel to the fire. Prime Minister Gordon Brown immediately spoke out for 'British jobs for British workers' - a statement that clearly contradicts EU law supporting the free movement of labor. The main speech this autumn by opposition Conservative leader David Cameron was also devoted to immigration - he called for a sharp reduction. Commentators unanimously began to talk about the 'small overcrowded island' that Britain had become.
British society split into two camps. Some advocated an economic approach: migration is justified if demanded by the economy; others - for administrative restrictions. Supporters of restrictions are currently prevailing.
Demographic explosion
According to a forecast by the National Statistics Office, the population of Britain, currently 60.6 million, will grow to 65 million by 2016. Of the 4.4 million increase, 2.1 million will be migrants. If current trends, on which the forecast is based, continue, Britain's population will reach 70 million in 2030 and nearly 77 million in 2050. The population of England will grow fastest: by 2016 - by 8%. Scotland's population will increase by only 3%.
'This is incredible population growth. At this rate, Britain will add two Londons by mid-century,' commented Andrew Green, head of the Migrationwatch research center. According to statisticians, rapid population growth will be due to three factors. First, increased life expectancy, which leads to a rise in the number of elderly Britons. If in 2006 there were only 4.7 million people over 75 in the country, by 2016 there will be 5.5 million, and by 2026 - 8.2 million. Second, Britain remains a magnet for migrants - an inflow of 190,000 people per year is expected. Third, the birth rate is gradually increasing. By 2030, natural increase will account for about half of population growth. But the birth rate is also increasing largely due to migrants. For example, in Central London hospitals in 2006, 59% of mothers were themselves born outside the United Kingdom. According to demographers' estimates, directly or indirectly, migration will thus account for 69% of the country's population growth.
Many in the Kingdom believe that the wrong path has been chosen in the sphere of demographic and migration policy. 'The country needs gradual and reasonable population growth, not such a sharp increase that will lead to a greater burden on public services and create problems with housing and schools,' said Damian Green, a representative of the opposition Conservatives.
Not enough for everyone
Slough - a small quiet town mentioned in Shakespeare's tragedy, half an hour's drive west of London. Today, the British headquarters of Mars, Amazon.com, and Nintendo are located here. According to the last census, in 2001 Slough had 119,000 residents. According to the British National Statistics Office, today the city has 122,000 people. 'This figure is underestimated by at least 15-20 thousand because it does not take into account recent migrants, primarily from new EU countries,' Slough city councilor John Edwards told Expert.
Local government budgets in Britain are about a quarter funded by local municipal tax (levied on residents, except students and pensioners), the rest comes from the central budget depending on the population of the municipal unit. According to Slough city council estimates, the city loses 15 million pounds sterling annually because its official population is lower than the actual one. Meanwhile, the city budget has to spend (meaning expenditures on schools, police, housing, etc.) on all residents, including unregistered ones. There is not enough money for everyone, so many are indignant.
'Among local residents, dissatisfaction is growing that the limited amount of funds is divided among an increasing number of people. Moreover, new residents often get more than old ones because they need interpreters, additional English lessons, and the like. Dissatisfaction creates tension that could turn into conflict,' continues John Edwards.
There are dozens of towns like Slough in Britain. 'Local authorities across the country are facing this problem, but the government is very slow to respond to the impact of economic migration on specific municipalities,' said Mick Gallagher, mayor of Boston in Lincolnshire, in early November. There, the population due to recent migrants from Poland and Lithuania grew from 55,000 to 80,000 in just three years.
The head of the British Local Government Association, Simon Milton, proposed urgently creating a fund of 250 million pounds sterling to finance local budget deficits where there are especially many migrants. Emergency funds would be especially useful for London, where about 40% of all migrants settle. In 2006, those born outside Britain accounted for 30.5% of the capital's population - just 20 years ago that figure was 17.6%. And 29% of jobs in London today are held by natives of other countries. According to estimates by the London borough of Westminster, its official population does not account for about 24,000 migrants. Therefore, funding from the emergency fund will help reduce the deficit in funding for police, schools, and street cleaning, but this will not solve all problems. 'Such a fund would be very useful, but it is not enough. The government must take measures to limit migration,' believes Andrew Green of Migrationwatch.
Tightening the screws
It is precisely such measures that Gordon Brown's government is going to take - especially in light of recently emerging facts. Thus, according to old statistics from the Ministry of Labour, it was believed that out of 2.7 million jobs created in Britain over the last ten years, 800,000 (or 30%) went to foreign workers. According to new data from the Office for National Statistics, since 1997 foreigners have taken 1.1 out of 2.1 million jobs, that is, more than half.
Worse: it turned out that in the last two years, when a wave from new EU countries poured into the country, the number of Britons among the employed fell by 270,000, while the number of foreigners increased by 540,000. According to estimates from the Labour Force Survey, the share of working Britons over the last decade decreased by 500,000, while the number of working foreigners increased by 1 million.
Britain is essentially turning into a nation of immigrants. Thus, at the end of 2006, those born abroad accounted for 12.5% of the working-age population, which is already close to the indicator of a traditional migration country – the US, where this figure is 15.3%.
The authorities refused to acknowledge this for too long, having never formulated a clear immigration policy. But amid the latest debates, Brown's cabinet has finally come forward with radical proposals. As Deputy Home Minister Liam Byrne, who oversees immigration, stated, as early as spring 2008 Britain will introduce a new immigration system borrowed from Australia. Under these rules, migrants will be able to enter the country if they accumulate enough points, which will be awarded for age, education, work experience, etc.
'This is a typical administrative method, though not as radical as the one proposed by the Conservatives. They insist on introducing annual immigration quotas, similar to US quotas at the beginning of the 20th century. The trouble is that administrative measures will be applied to those arriving from outside the EU, although the main immigration problems of recent years are related to internal European migration - from Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and so on. So the proposed methods are typical politicking that will not solve the problem,' Danny Sriskandarajah, Director of Strategy at the Institute for Public Policy Research, told Expert.
The unexpectedly large influx of Eastern Europeans from the new EU countries that joined in 2004 (estimated between 600,000 and 1 million people) was the reason why London decided to extend the moratorium on the free movement of labor from Romania and Bulgaria (EU members since January 2007) for another three years. But the British can no longer cancel free entry for Poles or Latvians.
According to demographers, administrative measures will limit the entry of a small but important number of migrants from outside the EU (about 100,000 people per year), having little effect on migration from Eastern Europe, which today actually concerns the British the most.
'Restricting migration creates as many problems as it solves, since it makes it difficult to effectively grow the economy and fill 600,000 vacancies. In the last 10 years, foreigners have filled two-thirds of vacancies in the City of London, because they often had higher qualifications than local candidates. And also most unskilled vacancies, because Britons do not want to do low-paid routine work. If serious restrictions on migration are introduced, it will slow down economic growth,' explained Dan O'Brien, an economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
So administrative restriction of migration could seriously damage the economy, because during years of rapid economic growth, companies will not be able to fill vacancies as demand arises - as was the case before.
Alexander KOKSHAROV.
Expert