And what about the non-nomenklatura people? They are plagued by fears and anxieties related to the negative aspects of such a step. And it is not only a matter of peasants - they will have to compete with the products of Western producers (after joining the EU, the state will no longer be able to protect them through customs duties).
Analysts in Lithuania are already talking today about, perhaps, the main danger that awaits the country after May 1, 2004 (the date of the actual entry of candidate countries into the EU space). The labor market will become open - the best specialists, trained with Lithuanian taxpayers' money, will flee to richer EU countries, where they will be offered a completely legal status with social protection and a salary 10-15 times higher than the Lithuanian one. According to recent polls, about 80% of Lithuanians are preparing to go abroad to work after the EU labor market opens to them. True, the Lithuanian labor exchange predicts the departure of only 2% of workers (with family members - about 4%), i.e., about 140 thousand people. And - one of the arguments in favor of the fact that the flow of job seekers to the West will be limited: the post-Soviet people's ignorance of foreign languages, lack of computer education, and inability to communicate in a Western manner.
However, if all this is somewhat applicable to middle-aged and elderly people, then, say, Lithuania's youth - the most promising part of the population - has long since oriented itself toward the priorities of future life. Computer and foreign languages, business communication skills - have long been part of the mandatory educational "set" of every self-respecting twenty-year-old who dreams of a good life. That is, even if not very many leave, the best will leave.
Moreover, 200 thousand (according to other data, twice as many) Lithuanians, mostly aged 20-30, illegally residing in developed EU countries, are just waiting for May 1, 2004 to come out of hiding and work legally, relying on social protection. Already today in Ireland, among immigrant workers, Lithuanians are in second place (first are Latvians). Ireland needs drivers and builders - welders, bricklayers, plasterers.
And in neighboring Great Britain (where entire neighborhoods are also populated by Lithuanians who immigrated during the years of independence), it has already been announced that a hundred thousand free places for foreigners are being prepared for May 2004. Thus, according to statistics, in the medical sphere, immigrants in England today make up 27% of all workers, and in the education system - 9%. There will also be a place for less qualified workers: according to forecasts of the British organization CBI, up to 400 thousand foreigners will be employed in hotels, restaurants, and boarding houses alone. Further, the free places will be distributed as follows: in medical institutions and care homes for the elderly, residents of the countries that joined the EU will be offered 77,800 places, in manufacturing firms - 61,000, in transport - 37,200, in education - 33,300, in construction - 28,900, in administrative institutions - 26,400.
Now let us return to Lithuania. Here, already today, there is a sharp shortage of computer specialists, surgeons, and teachers. For example, according to some data, not a single new surgeon has appeared at the Siauliai regional hospital over the past seven years. Indeed, to study as a surgeon takes more than ten years (including the internship period), after which a person receives... about 600 litas (just over $150 - a ridiculous amount for Lithuania), while the average salary of a medical worker in Lithuania is 800 litas (somewhere around $250). Even an experienced surgeon gets 1,000 litas ($300). Not surprisingly, more than one dentist, anesthesiologist, or surgeon has left to work in America, Sweden, and other EU countries, which have long opened the doors of their operating rooms to such specialists. Let us compare: in developed EU countries, a highly qualified doctor receives at least $2-3 thousand a month (surgeons - $4-5 thousand or more). Of course, the reason for this situation is the principle of "residual financing" of these professions that prevails in Lithuania (and is it not throughout the entire post-Soviet space?).
Finally, let us ask the final question: if tomorrow, in search of a decent life, the best specialists and minds leave Lithuania, what will happen to Lithuanian society?
A holy place is never empty. An influx of even cheaper labor from the East is predicted, for which Lithuanian salaries will be of interest. Lithuania is already issuing official work permits to foreigners. True, so far the numbers are small: last year 477 permits for temporary employment were issued (this concerns residents of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, China, and some other countries). But with the outflow of the best specialists to the West, a sharp increase in quotas is predicted.