Travel restrictions have halted the arrival of foreigners in Canada
The Canadian government has officially suspended the acceptance of immigrants for the duration of entry restrictions for foreigners. As reported by Russian Toronto, Canada is currently open only to its citizens, permanent residents, and their family members. At the same time, according to explanations from the Ministry of Citizenship and Immigration Canada, the department continues to process received applications.
Canada had planned to accept 341,000 people this year, 351,000 in 2021, and another 361,000 in 2022. The government has not yet abandoned these plans, so there seems to be no cause for alarm. However, there are several points that suggest we may face serious changes, and the government may alter its plans regarding immigrant intake.
The virus is destroying the economy
The main intrigue is related to the coronavirus pandemic and how long the fight against it will last. There are two scenarios for exiting the pandemic. The first is the development of a vaccine, its mass production, and total vaccination of the world's population, or at least Canada's population. Under the most favorable circumstances, this will happen in about a year to a year and a half, at the earliest.
The second scenario involves letting everyone get sick with the coronavirus and achieve herd immunity. This path is being avoided because it would lead to a high number of deaths. Although we cannot escape this scenario entirely, quarantine measures are being introduced to prevent a simultaneous influx of patients into hospitals. These measures slow down the economy. Given that quarantine measures will have to be imposed regularly and for long periods, economic problems are guaranteed for a long time.
That is, in both cases, we are talking about at least a year and a half during which we will have to live under pandemic conditions. This means the Canadian economy entering a recession with the prospect of falling into a depression. The following figures eloquently illustrate the scale of what is happening.
Just two weeks after the quarantine was introduced, more than 1 million people applied for unemployment benefits. These are only those who were laid off due to coronavirus-related problems in companies. Starting April 6, applications for assistance began from those who lost income due to the quarantine. All of them will receive a benefit of 2,000 dollars for 4 months. It is expected that in the first weeks, about 4 million people will apply for such assistance.
Speaking of unemployment, before the pandemic, it was at 5% in Canada. It is expected that by summer it could rise to 15%. If the quarantine lasts until autumn, the unemployment rate could rise to 25%-30%. This would be higher than during the Great Depression. To this should be added the huge budget deficit that is forming before our eyes. The assistance the state provides to millions of people who have lost their earnings, and the funds currently directed to purchasing necessary medical equipment and fighting the coronavirus, all create a giant debt that the country will have to pay off for many years.
In this regard, opposition parties in parliament are beginning to ask: isn't it time to stop immigration until the economy returns to normal? They argue that immigration was necessary due to a labor shortage in Canada. In a situation where the economy has fallen into recession, there is no work, and unemployment is breaking all records, accepting additional workers from abroad looks at least illogical. Moreover, if immigrants cannot find work or lose their jobs, they will receive social assistance from the state. With a budget deficit, providing such assistance will be difficult.
Therefore, it is quite possible to expect the government to reconsider its approaches to Canada's immigration policy. Apparently, this will primarily affect provincial programs. While there is confidence that federal programs for skilled workers will not be closed, the same cannot be said for provincial programs.
Federal programs
We have repeatedly written that under federal programs for specialists, the vast majority are graduates of Canadian colleges and universities who have found work in Canada and worked for at least 1 year. The remaining small percentage are individuals who obtained work in Canada through transfers within international corporations. They mostly immigrate through the Canadian Experience Class program.
The reason for this state of affairs is the feature of the Express Entry pre-selection system, which is configured to accept precisely this category of immigrants. For those who do not have work experience in Canada and do not have a job offer in Canada, it is impossible to pass through the Express Entry sieve. If it does happen, it is a rare exception to the rule.
Speaking of graduates of Canadian colleges and universities, the government has no reason to impose restrictions on the Canadian Experience Class program. If a person has already worked 1 year in Canada, it means they are employed, they are in their place, and will not be a burden to Canada. It is logical that they are given the opportunity to obtain permanent resident status.
If a person cannot find work in Canada after graduating from an educational institution, they will not have grounds for successful immigration under the Canadian Experience Class program. And here arises the first prerequisite for reducing the number of immigrants accepted – with high unemployment, finding a job will be extremely difficult.
The second prerequisite is the increasing difficulty for foreigners to enter Canadian educational institutions. Given quarantine measures, the shift to online learning, and restrictions on entry into Canada for foreigners, difficulties for international students are to be expected. This could become a problem for those who wanted to immigrate to Canada through the study-at-a-Canadian-college-or-university pathway. It is very likely that coming to study in Canada in the next year or two will be challenging.
In effect, the number of people who can qualify under federal skilled worker programs will significantly decrease, and admissions will drop on their own, without the need to officially change quotas. The plan will not be fulfilled, quotas will not be met, and this outcome will suit everyone.
Provincial Programs
Given that mainly only graduates of Canadian colleges and universities can qualify under federal skilled worker programs, for foreign professionals only provincial programs remain. Of course, provinces also primarily select graduates of Canadian colleges and universities, but they do issue some invitations to foreign professionals as well. This explains the popularity and unique role of these programs. However, at present, their necessity has been called into question.
All existing provincial programs were created to attract needed workers to specific provinces. The shortage of such workers was mainly observed in the oil and gas industry and resource sectors during their heyday. In a situation where the economy is sliding into depression and unemployment is reaching extreme levels, the need for additional workers disappears. Accordingly, provincial programs lose any meaning.
For example, take the province of Alberta, the center of oil and gas production in Canada. During the oil industry boom, this province was most interested in workers from abroad, and its immigration programs were extremely popular. Now the picture is completely opposite; at present, it is one of the most troubled provinces in Canada. While unemployment across Canada is forecast at 15% in the next month or two, in Alberta it is forecast at 25%. Obviously, with such unemployment, there is no point in accepting workers from abroad.
The particular irony is that the current Premier of Alberta is Jason Kenney, who, when he was Canada's Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, became the architect of Canada's new immigration policy under which the system currently operates. It was he who made the priority of admitting immigrants to fill jobs instead of the previously existing principles of selecting the most educated and best suited individuals for Canadian society. And now he is the first to refuse to accept workers from abroad.
The lack of need for workers from abroad does not mean that provinces will stop accepting them literally tomorrow. Like any bureaucratic machine, provincial immigration authorities will continue to select workers even when they are no longer needed. Until they are told to stop doing so. However, it appears that the suspension of these programs is only a matter of time.
All That Remains Is to Wait
For now, the government is only suspending the admission of immigrants. In particular, the acceptance of applications for parental family sponsorship has also been postponed. It is unknown when it will reopen and what quotas will be allocated. The coronavirus pandemic and growing economic problems are making adjustments, including to Canada's immigration policy.
How Canada's immigration policy will be changed, whether quotas for admitting immigrants will be maintained in full or reduced—all of this depends on the duration of the pandemic and the period of economic recovery. For now, one must be prepared for any changes, and before taking any steps related to immigration, check with official authorities what rules are currently in effect.