The increase in Germany's population is achieved solely through the influx of immigrants
The past year marked another record in terms of population: by the end of 2019, there were 200,000 more people living in Germany than at the end of 2018. 83.2 million people – this figure was recorded in the country for the first time, the Federal Statistical Office (Statistisches Bundesamt) reported.
Nevertheless, as noted by "Russkaya Germaniya", growth trends have noticeably weakened compared to those observed by statisticians between 2013 and 2018. The extreme year in terms of dynamics was, of course, 2015, when, due to the open-door policy, Germany gained at least 1.2 million residents. But both two years earlier and three years after, population growth rates were higher than in 2019, and such weak growth last occurred in 2012.
In any case, the increase in the number of people living in Germany is achieved solely through the influx of immigrants, not due to an unexpected baby boom: over the past nearly five decades (since 1972), more people die in the country each year than are born. Without newcomers, Germany's population would regularly decline and would not exceed 80 million today.
In 2019, there were 770-790 thousand births in Germany compared to 920-940 thousand deaths (statisticians do not yet have final data – information has been collected only for the first ten months of 2019; the figures given by the statistical office are preliminary estimates). Compared to the previous year, the birth rate in 2019 decreased slightly, while the death rate fell quite noticeably: a year earlier, 787,500 children were born in Germany, 954,900 people died, and the so-called birth deficit (the difference between the number of deaths and births) was 167,400. According to data for 2019, this figure will range between 130 and 170 thousand.
During the reporting period, 300-350 thousand more people arrived in Germany than left the country. The migration balance (the difference between arrivals and departures) has been declining for the fourth consecutive year: in 2018 it was 399,700 people, in 2017 – 416 thousand, and now, as a year earlier, it remains at the level of 2012, when there was no talk of an impending immigration crisis.
The majority of newcomers to Germany are immigrants from European Union member states. As in the previous year, citizens of Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria predominate in the statistics; the top five also include Italians and Croats. In sixth place on the list is Turkey, replacing Syria, which, in terms of the number of immigrants arriving in Germany, has left the top ten altogether (it is now 11th, while the top ten also includes Hungary, the United States, India, and Greece).
In terms of national composition, the population of the Federal Republic has never been so diverse. The share of German citizens with an immigrant background (to be considered as such, one must either have been born in another country or have at least one parent born abroad) today is 13%, and foreigners in Germany make up 12%. Thus, every fourth resident of the country has an immigrant background. More than a third of these come from another EU state, almost another third from other European countries, and the rest from other continents.
The birth rate in Germany in 2019 was 1.56 children per woman of childbearing age, slightly down from the previous year (1.57). Still, these figures are noticeably higher than the period 2005-2012, when no more than 700 thousand children were born per year in Germany (the worst year was 2011 with only 662 thousand newborns), and the statistics were dominated by rates of 1.21 to 1.28 children per potential mother.
Despite regularly updated population figures, the demographic situation in the country remains tense: the population is steadily aging. The average age of a German resident today is 45.5 years (it increased by 0.1 years over 12 months). In the next two decades, as statisticians predict, the country will see a strong increase in the number of people of retirement age and a noticeable decline in the birth rate – partly because there will be fewer women of childbearing age in Germany (those born in the years with the lowest birth rates will reach this age). The average age of a foreigner living in Germany is almost ten years lower than the national average – 36.9 years.
The trend of population growth is also not infinite: according to forecasts, the balance of births, deaths, immigration, and emigration will be positive at least until 2024, then a decline is possible – and from 2040 it will be inevitable.
In 2060, between 74 and 83 million people will live in Germany, statisticians believe. The reduction in the working-age population aged 20 to 66 will be particularly severe: by 2035, there will be 4-6 million fewer potential taxpayers – the foundation of the country's prosperity – in Germany.