As Russian Toronto notes, there have been no official statements on this topic yet. However, there are a number of points that could signal possible changes in Canadian immigration policy. In particular, in September a meeting was held between representatives of the federal center and the provinces on the distribution of immigration quotas, at which agreements were reached that have not yet been reported.
Around the same time, that is, at the end of September, practically all major Canadian media resources discussed the topic of how much Canada needs immigration and how many immigrants should be accepted. The occasion was a report by the independent organization Conference Board of Canada, which is essentially a think tank for developing Canada's development strategy. According to the prepared report, it is recommended to increase the intake of immigrants to 450,000 people per year, that is, one and a half times the current level of 300,000 people.
The indicated figure – 450,000 people per year – echoes exactly what the federal government's economic advisors proposed in 2016, and what was actively discussed within the Liberal Party itself at the beginning of this decade. A year ago, this advice was not taken into account, although the number of immigrants accepted was increased from the actual 260-270 thousand to an official 300 thousand per year. However, the situation is now completely different, and it is possible that the government will again raise the quota for the number of immigrants accepted – even if not to 450,000, but enough to be noticeable.
Expectations and Reality
It is worth saying that in terms of immigration, the ruling Liberals have not yet done anything outstanding; no fundamental improvement in the immigration system has occurred under them. The question is, was there a need to improve anything? The answer is unequivocal – undoubtedly, there was.
As a reminder: until the second half of 2015, Canada was governed by the Conservatives. Shortly before they were replaced by the Liberals, the Conservatives carried out a large-scale reform in the field of immigration. As usual, the bravura statements about how it would be did not match what actually happened. That is, it was not that the idea was completely useless, but it cannot even be called good.
After the Liberals won the election in 2015 and became the ruling party, there were high expectations that they would either roll back the immigration reform or at least seriously refine it. Unfortunately, none of this happened. If any changes have begun to occur, it is only now.
In particular, from October 11, 2017, the previous rules come into effect, under which to apply for Canadian citizenship, one must have lived in the country with permanent resident status for 3 years out of the last five. This cancels the Conservatives' innovation, according to which the residency period should be 4 years out of the last 6 years.
But that is practically all. Increasing the quota to 300,000 per year from the actual 260-270 thousand, as it was in the last years under the Conservatives, is certainly a step forward, but it changes little fundamentally. Everything else remains the same – business programs remain virtually closed; due to the features of the Express Entry pre-selection system, only a small portion of those who previously qualified under the federal Skilled Worker Program now pass; the situation with family sponsorship for parents has also practically not changed. All that the Trudeau government has mainly done in the field of immigration in the first two years is accepting refugees – first from Syria, and this year the focus has shifted to accepting refugees who could not obtain status in the United States and are now marching in friendly columns towards the Canadian border.
Let's just say, not everyone shares the enthusiasm of the Trudeau government on this issue, so in the next election, which will take place in two years, this could result in his party losing power. Especially since the Trudeau government is not performing well in other areas of Canadian life and is taking measures that cause strong rejection – such as the tax reform that affects small businesses and professionals.
In such a situation, flirting with the electorate and making promises usually begins. In particular, increasing quotas for the number of immigrants accepted could become such a carrot for ethnic communities that traditionally vote for the Liberals. But it is not yet possible to count on business programs being opened or changes being made in favor of accepting a larger number of immigrants under the Skilled Worker Program.
What the Conference Board of Canada Recommends
The latest recommendations from the Conference Board of Canada are that increasing immigration to 450,000 people per year will help cope with the problem of an aging population and rising healthcare costs, and will positively impact economic growth acceleration. However, this will only be possible with a much higher degree of integration of immigrants into the Canadian economy than is currently observed. It is assumed that the ratio between immigrant categories will not change – that is, approximately 60% will be those under the economic class, 28% will be under family sponsorship, and 12% will be allocated to refugees.
According to estimates by the Conference Board of Canada, increasing the intake of immigrants to 450,000 people per year will accelerate economic growth by 2.05% per year, compared to 1.85% per year at the current level of immigrant intake.
What else will increasing immigrant intake bring? In particular, it will rejuvenate the population. In 2016, people over 65 (retirement age in Canada) made up 16.5% of the country's total population. At current immigration rates and all else being equal, by 2040 retirees will account for 24% of the population. If immigrant intake is increased to 450,000 per year, the ratio of retirees to the rest of the population will drop to 22.5% in 2040.
The same applies to the ratio of workers to retirees. In 2017, this ratio was 3.64—that is, 3.64 workers per retiree. By 2040, it will fall to 2.37. Increasing immigrant intake to 450,000 would achieve a ratio of 2.53.
Also, because new immigrants are on average younger than the average Canadian, their healthcare costs are lower than those of older people. This alone will reduce per capita costs by 2%. It is worth recalling that all Canadians are covered by free public health insurance paid from the budget, so healthcare spending is a critical item for Canada.
However, the same report from the Conference Board of Canada contains a caveat that the positive economic effect will only occur if immigrants are much better integrated into Canadian society and the Canadian economy; otherwise, increased immigration will lower the average standard of living, as immigrants typically earn less than Canadians.
Conclusion
Speaking of Canada, it is obvious that under current conditions it needs accelerated population growth to remain among the leading economically developed countries. Despite being the second-largest country by land area and the 10th-largest economy by GDP, Canada has just over 35 million people.
Undoubtedly, there are alternatives to active immigrant intake, such as accelerated technological development, widespread use of robotic production lines, changes in the nature of production and economic relations, changes in the economic structure, and so on. But all that belongs to the future, and a future with very uncertain prospects.
At present, Canada would certainly benefit from population growth, especially from people who are active, educated, and willing and able to work and do business. Attracting as many such people as possible to the country is precisely the task facing the current government. How is it handling this task? Let's just say, not very well.
The changes in immigration made by the Conservatives can hardly be called optimal. However, two important goals were achieved: processing times for applications were reduced, and the economic class now mainly admits young people. This refers to foreigners who have received education and work experience in Canada. So in this regard, the changes are working to Canada's advantage. It is also worth adding that in family sponsorship, priority is now given to sponsoring a spouse, which also clearly works to attract mostly young people to the country.
Looking at the immigration situation from this perspective, they fit quite well with the recommendations of the Conference Board of Canada, albeit with major caveats. But these are the achievements of the Conservatives. The Liberals, after two years in office, have virtually nothing to boast about.
Therefore, the speech by Canada's Minister of Citizenship and Immigration in November should be a litmus test—it is hard to imagine a better time to announce any major changes in immigration. If there are none, then the Liberals can be written off in terms of hopes for change for the better.