Canada's Minister of Immigration Ahmed Hussen presented the government's multi-year strategy for admitting immigrants
As reported by "Russian Toronto", the plan also provides a breakdown of quotas by various immigration streams. The minister did not disclose anything else, and it appears that no major changes in immigration programs, let alone the immigration strategy itself, are to be expected in the coming years.
In general, the fact that the immigration plan is drawn up for three years ahead deviates from established practice. Plans were usually made only for the upcoming year, adjusted according to the economic situation and expediency. This year, the federal government changed the procedure due to pressure from provinces, which are playing an increasingly important role in selecting new immigrants and want clarity regarding the long-term plans of the Trudeau government.
Therefore, for the first time in many years, a plan was announced not only for the next year, 2018, but also for three years ahead, including 2020. According to these plans, Canada will accept 310,000 immigrants in 2018, 330,000 in 2019, and 340,000 in 2020.
That the number of immigrants accepted would increase has been clear for a long time. Quotas and the actual number of immigrants accepted have been increasing in recent years anyway, amid talk that even more should be accepted. As a result, over just the past few years, quotas have risen from 220-230 thousand per year to the current 300 thousand. That is, the increase in quotas was already happening under the Conservatives; the Liberals did not come up with anything new in this regard.
The increase in the number of immigrants accepted is explained by the need to maintain a balance of the working-age population, that is, the number of people employed in the economy relative to those living on pensions. Due to the mass exodus of baby boomers from the labor market, the ratio of working to non-working people in Canada is changing negatively, while young workers are needed to sustain economic growth. In particular, just recently, the government-affiliated analytical organization Conference Board of Canada recommended increasing immigrant intake to 450,000 people per year.
As can be seen, although the government has moved to increase immigrant intake, it is doing so cautiously. That is, it has not taken any radical measures in the area of immigration.
Skilled Professionals
If we analyze the published plan broken down by year and by immigrant category, it is clear that the main flow of immigrants will go through the economic class. For 2018, 177,500 immigration visas (57% of the total) are allocated to this class. This is certainly good, but one must understand that the economic class combines a large number of programs, and among them there are very few through which immigration can be done simply and quickly.
For example, for federal programs for professionals, which include the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class, 74,900 immigration visas are allocated in 2018. At the same time, it is not disclosed what quotas are allocated for each of these programs.
Meanwhile, judging by the current state of affairs, of the three mentioned federal programs, only one is actually working – the Canadian Experience Class; it is through this program that the main flow of immigrants in this category passes. For example, an analysis of the results of the Express Entry selection shows that in 2017, under the Federal Skilled Worker Program and Federal Skilled Trades Program, probably no more than one and a half to two thousand people received invitations to apply for immigration.
At the same time, just a few years ago, the Federal Skilled Worker Program was the main program through which the flow of skilled professionals came to Canada. Now this program is practically not working. The main emphasis is on graduates of Canadian colleges and universities who have worked in Canada for at least one year. Currently, this is the main channel of immigration for skilled professionals.
It is also evident that the federal government is increasingly transferring the function of selecting skilled professionals to the provinces. In particular, if in 2017 the quota for those approved under one of the Provincial Nominee Programs was 51,000, then in 2018 this figure will be 55,000 and will grow to 67,800 visas by 2020. Thus, the share of provincial nominees will increase from the current 17% of the total number of immigration visas issued to 20% in 2020.
Also, the percentage of those who go through the provincial programs of the province of Quebec will increase slightly – from the current 9% to 9.5% in 2020. On average, Quebec will accept about 30,000 people annually under the economic class (about 25,000 will be skilled workers, and about 4,500 under business programs).
Finally, it is noticeable how the once popular Caregiver program is being scaled back. The number of immigration visas issued under this program will decrease from 17,000 in 2018 to 5,000 in 2020.
Family Sponsorship
Regarding family sponsorship, the number of immigration visas issued under this category will increase – to 86,000 in 2018 and to 91,000 in 2020. At the same time, quotas for family sponsorship of parents will double in 2018 – to 20,000 compared to the current 10,000.
This is undoubtedly good, but still insufficient, given how many Canadians who are immigrants want to sponsor their parents. The bad news is that no one plans to increase quotas further, and in 2020 they will grow to 21,000, that is, they will actually remain at the 2018 level.
Refugees and Humanitarian Programs
Also, the number of accepted refugees and those under humanitarian programs will not increase significantly. In particular, in 2018 the government plans to accept about 43,000 refugees, and in 2020 about 48,700 people.
Of course, this is not the 60,000 refugees accepted in 2016, but it is still a lot, especially compared to the number of immigration visas issued to sponsored parents, and even more so to those under the Federal Skilled Worker Program.
CURRENT IMMIGRATION SITUATION
After two years of the Trudeau government, it can be said quite definitely that it does not plan any radical changes – either because it sees no need, or simply due to a lack of a clear strategy and understanding of what exactly needs to be done. As a result, the current minister simply continues the course of Jason Kenney, who was the initiator of all current innovations in immigration under the Harper Conservative government, and follows the course of his predecessor John McCallum in terms of working with refugees (it should be recalled that the Trudeau government from the very beginning made the refugee program a cornerstone of its immigration policy and a top priority).
So far, everything suggests that Ahmed Hussen is purely a technical director of the immigration department, so it is unlikely to expect any innovations from him. At least until the next federal elections, which will take place in two years. Therefore, we need to deal with what we have.
In particular, it is hardly worth counting on the Federal Skilled Worker Program, which is currently almost non-functional. To go through immigration under federal programs, you mainly need to consider the option of studying in Canada followed by work, which allows you to go through immigration under the Canadian Experience Class. If due to age or other reasons this option is not suitable, it makes sense to pay attention to the Quebec programs for skilled workers.
The same applies to business programs. At the federal level, business immigration is almost stopped. Although provinces offer immigration business programs, the quotas for them are so meager that getting through them is a great stroke of luck.
Again, for entrepreneurs and investors, the Quebec business programs remain, which essentially duplicate the closed federal programs and have a fairly large quota of 4,500 immigration visas per year. The problem with these programs, however, is that they are very popular, and it is extremely difficult to get into even these quotas.
Summing up the announced plans, it can be said that they did not make big news. A fairly modest increase in the number of immigrants compared to the current level can hardly be considered a major breakthrough, and any lack of movement in developing new programs or at least some attempts to revive what is actually not working is not yet observed. Most importantly, the situation is unlikely to change in the coming years, so in your plans you need to proceed from what is. At least, there are big advantages in such stability.
Well, a little more positivity. While immigration is being curtailed around the world and doors are closing tighter, Canada among other developed countries continues to be almost the only place that is not only open to receiving immigrants but also increases their intake.