Canada's immigration authorities have focused their efforts on naturalizing those already in the country
The inviolability of established rules of the game in Canada's immigration policy – that is how the two-year rule of the Liberal Party can be characterized. Provincial immigration programs also remain stable. "Russian Toronto" reports on the current situation and prospects for the near future for those wishing to move to the Maple Leaf country.
Changes unlikely
Overall, the word stability fits very well to describe the current situation in the field of immigration to Canada. All the rules of the game have already been defined, and everything suggests that the current government will not do anything more to radically change anything in the existing system. Therefore, we are unlikely to see any surprises in the future.
Of course, some changes occur constantly, but they are completely insignificant, as they do not change anything in the system itself or in the approaches to selecting new immigrants. So far, it looks like the strategy of professional immigration, which was developed 5-6 years ago on the initiative of Jason Kenney and began to be actively implemented two or three years ago, is currently the basis of all of Canada's current immigration policy. That is, the Liberals did not even try to change anything in it, but simply follow the set plans.
At the same time, the main approaches of this strategy are still far from being implemented; they are being introduced in portions, but such work is ongoing. Therefore, in principle, we can assume with a high degree of certainty what awaits us in the next few years. So far, everything looks like the main changes may only affect provincial programs, primarily in the province of Quebec.
Attractiveness of the current moment
After several years of uncertainty and constant changes in Canada's immigration sphere, stability has finally arrived. Is this good or bad? The answer directly depends on which category you fall into. First, about why stability is good.
Just a few years ago, the situation in the immigration sphere was the opposite; it could be described as chaos. The rules for going through immigration were constantly changing, existing programs were closed, new ones were opened, then they were changed, quotas were introduced, then quotas were changed – and this turmoil lasted for several years.
Naturally, in conditions where it was unclear what to expect in a few months, planning anything was useless, and immigration applications were most often submitted on a wing and a prayer – maybe you'd get lucky. In addition, during these years, the government was clearing the backlog of accumulated applications and effectively stopped accepting new applications from skilled workers. At least, acceptance was severely limited.
Those times are over, and so far everything looks quite rosy. First, quotas for accepting immigrants have been increased from the traditional 225-250 thousand per year to 300 thousand per year in 2017, with plans to increase to 340 thousand in 2020. Second, the entire annual quota is distributed among those who apply during that year. That is, there is no "chipping away" from this quota to clear the queue of applications awaiting processing. Thus, the chances of successful processing become higher, as competition decreases.
A bonus is also that all applications are processed within a year; you don't have to wait in line for several years, as was the case before. Finally (and this is perhaps the most important thing), the current rules are clear and understandable, and no one will change them in the foreseeable future. Therefore, you can calmly plan your immigration, having a more or less precise idea of what needs to be done in the next 3-4 years, and what you will end up with.
In this regard, the stability that has arrived is very good. True, not for everyone.
Who is losing and who is winning now
It must be understood that the current immigration system is essentially geared primarily toward naturalizing those who are already in Canada – on a work or study visa. These categories are given clear preference. Another important factor is age.
When new approaches to Canada's immigration policy regarding attracting skilled professionals from abroad were being developed, the following priorities were announced:
• We need to select young people to solve the problem of Canada's aging society;
• We need to select those who can easily adapt to Canada, that is, those who will not have problems with employment, who are fluent in English or French, and who share Canadian values.
The best candidates for this are young people who have received education in Canada and found a job. As a result, all professional immigration has become oriented toward foreign students who want to stay in Canada after graduation. For this reason, the main flow is now going through the Canadian Experience Class program.
For everyone else, especially if the age is around 40 years or older, immigration to Canada becomes almost unrealistic. And in this situation, stability is a negative factor. Under the old rules, age was not a serious obstacle; experience and qualifications were valued. But now it's different.
The most important thing is that there are no particular hopes today that anything in this matter will change for the better. In 2017, about 420,000 foreign nationals were studying in Canadian colleges and universities on Study Permits. This potentially means 150,000–180,000 annual immigration applicants. Even if only half of them apply for immigration, we are talking about 75,000–90,000 people, with an annual quota of 75,000 immigration visas for federal skilled worker programs. And those who work in Canada on work permits (about 75,000 people) also compete for this quota. Not all of them apply for immigration, but a significant portion plans to stay in Canada.
Therefore, immigration authorities have no shortage of candidates to choose from, and they are unlikely to change anything in this system. On the contrary, given the intentions to significantly increase the intake of foreign students into Canadian colleges and universities.
What should those who cannot count on studying in Canada and subsequent immigration under the CEC program do? The answer is: they should consider provincial programs.
Stability of Provincial Programs
When it comes to provincial immigration programs, there is much less stability because changes are constant. And the most important thing in these changes is that provincial programs are beginning to act as an alternative to the federal Federal Skilled Worker Program, which is currently practically non-functional.
Traditionally, provincial programs worked (and continue to work) as follows: foreigners who receive a job offer from a Canadian employer apply to the immigration authorities of that province. If they meet the requirements of a particular program, they are issued a Provincial Nominee Certificate, with which they either apply directly to federal immigration authorities or to the Express Entry system for streamlined processing before submitting documents to federal immigration authorities.
Some provincial programs do not require a job offer, but they have their own specific requirements. In any case, provincial programs were designed for a fairly narrow pool of immigrants, so they could not be considered as a primary, let alone reliable, immigration channel. Now the situation is changing.
One of the main provisions of Canada's new immigration policy was that all skilled workers wishing to immigrate to Canada must submit their applications through the Express Entry system. Then provincial and federal authorities would select the specialists they need from the database of these applications.
So far, this scheme only works for those who qualify under federal programs. However, starting in 2017, some provinces have introduced programs that involve selecting applications from those submitted to the Express Entry system. A job offer in that province is not required for such programs.
It appears that provinces are now transitioning to this type of program, shifting priorities to them and gradually closing previous programs that required a job offer from an employer in the province. It is too early to say how these programs will work in practice, whom the provinces will select, and when the transition will be completed, but the trend is encouraging. It looks like these programs will become a real replacement for the federal Federal Skilled Worker Program. Accordingly, this gives chances to those who have good qualifications for the Federal Skilled Worker Program but, due to the peculiarities of the Express Entry system, cannot pass the preliminary selection.
It is also worth mentioning the provincial programs of Quebec, especially since a large quota is allocated to them – almost 30,000 immigration visas per year. Currently, this province's immigration programs are completely out of step with the overall picture. In fact, Quebec has programs similar to the former federal programs that are now closed.
Logic suggests that Quebec should start changing its programs to align them with the general immigration policy. However, it is unlikely that the current government will insist on this strongly. So if Quebec does change anything, it will not be as soon as other provinces.
Summary
Overall, it can be said that now is a good time for immigration to Canada, given the increased quotas and clear rules that are unlikely to change in the coming years. The most reliable path, of course, is through studying in Canada. In addition to obtaining an excellent education that is highly valued worldwide and good job opportunities, this path offers the highest chances of obtaining permanent resident status in Canada.
For those for whom this path is not suitable, but who have something to offer as a specialist, we recommend applying through the Express Entry system, as there is a chance that a province may select you. It is also worth considering the Quebec skilled worker program.