Miguel Sebastián bases his calculations on the population density indicator, which in Spain is 83 people per square kilometer compared to 117.5 people per square kilometer on average in the European Union. He argues that the EU average is not the limit, as in some countries it is significantly higher: in Italy – 197, in the UK – 244.3, in Germany – 231.1. Based on these figures, Spain can receive 200,000 immigrants annually to ensure economic growth above 3% per year.
The adviser to the Prime Minister emphasized that Spain, with 11% immigrants of the total population according to the UN, is far from the figures of Australia (20.3%) or Canada (18.9%) and ranks only 11th in terms of immigration among the most developed countries. However, Sebastián believes that measures should be taken for a more even distribution of immigrants across the country, as in Madrid and the island provinces their share exceeds 13% of the population. At the same time, in Extremadura, Galicia, and Asturias, the immigrant population is only 2.5%.
The candidate for mayor of Madrid cited figures according to which the growth of the national gross product in the last 10 years by 30% is due to immigrants, and if we consider the last five years, this figure would be 50%. Moreover, in 2005, immigrants brought net income to the state of €4.78 billion. The most obvious positive impact of the immigrant community is on the pension system: their contributions to the social security system amounted to €8 billion, while the state returned only €400 million in pensions. Although Miguel Sebastián admitted that this difference will not only decrease but may even change sign within two decades.
The adviser also predicts a stabilization of housing prices in the near future, as, according to him, the price spiral has already reached its peak. Nevertheless, demand for housing does not fall largely due to the needs of immigrants. After all, apartments in Spain become the property of people from other countries in every fourth real estate transaction. The only negative effect of immigration for Spain, without delving into the social and political sphere, is a decrease in labor productivity due to the dispersion of capital, although Sebastián expressed confidence that this is a temporary phenomenon.
The presentation of this report can be seen as the conclusion of Miguel Sebastián's work as economic adviser to the Spanish government before he focuses on preparatory work for the local elections in May next year. As Espana.kp.ru notes, this is Sebastián's first public appearance since he was presented as a candidate for mayor of Madrid, which can also be considered the start of his election campaign.