India will surpass China in population in just 7 years
India will become the world's most populous country 6 years earlier than previously thought, according to a report by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Currently, China and India have populations of 1.38 and 1.31 billion people respectively. The populations of the two countries will reach 1.4 billion by 2022. Until the early 2030s, i.e., about a decade, India's population will continue to grow, while China's will stabilize. This means that as early as 2023-2025, India will become the most populous country on our planet. Its population is expected to reach 1.5 billion by 2030 and 1.7 billion by 2050.
As Expert Online notes, ten years ago the world population was growing by 1.24% annually. Now the growth rate has slowed to 1.18% or approximately 83 million people per year. In general, growth rates, which peaked in the 1960s, have been steadily declining since the 1970s.
As for the global population as a whole, it currently stands at 7.3 billion people. According to the new forecast, it will grow to 9.7 billion by mid-century. The lion's share of the increase will come from countries with high fertility rates, mainly in Africa, and from populous countries.
More than half of the world's population growth in 2015-2050 will be accounted for by nine countries: India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, the United States, Indonesia, and Uganda.
“Continued population growth until 2050 is almost inevitable even if the decline in fertility accelerates,” the UN forecast says. “With 80% probability, it can be predicted that the world population will reach 8.4-8.6 billion by 2030; 9.4-10 billion by 2050; and 10-12.5 billion by 2100.”
It is expected that by mid-century, the populations of six countries – China, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States – will exceed 300 million. By that time, Nigeria will surpass the United States in population and become the third most populous country on the planet.
If current trends in fertility dynamics continue, Africa, which is home to 27 of the 48 least developed countries on the planet, will be the only continent where the population will grow substantially after 2050. The share of the Black continent in the global population will reach 25% by 2050 and 39% by 2100. Asia's share will decline to 54% by mid-century and to 44% by the end.
Of the continents, only Europe is expected to see a steady decline in population. The report's authors expect it to decrease from 738 million people currently to 646 million in 2100.
Along with population size, life expectancy is steadily increasing: from 67 years in 2000-2005 to 70 years in 2010-2015. This trend will continue. Life expectancy will reach 77 years by 2045-2050 and 83 years by 2095-2100. By the end of the century, the study's authors predict, the life expectancy of Africans will increase by almost 19 years, to about 60 years. This forecast will come true if the fight against AIDS and other diseases continues on the Black continent.
Declining fertility and increasing life expectancy will lead to further growth in the number of elderly people. By 2030, according to the forecast, it will grow to 1.4 billion people, by 2050 to 2.1 billion, and by the end of the century to 3.2 billion. In Europe, by mid-century, one in three (34%) will be over 60 years old. Currently, elderly Europeans make up a quarter (24%).