It is quite possible that 2019 will be the last stable year for immigration to Canada
As noted in an editorial by Russian Toronto, the main reason for expecting changes in the immigration sphere is the high likelihood of a change in government, which would entail a tightening of immigration policy. In October of this year, Canada will hold federal elections that will determine which party will govern the country. If the Conservatives come to power, a change in immigration policy is more than likely.
Here is what should be said. The Conservative electorate has traditionally advocated for limiting immigration, although overall public sentiment was quite favorable. However, in recent years the situation has changed, and people have mostly become negative toward immigration. This is not about attitudes toward immigrants, but about attitudes toward immigration in general.
A poll conducted in December 2018 by Global News showed that 54% of respondents were against immigration, 26% had no opinion on the matter, and only 20% believed to some extent that immigration is beneficial to Canada. This shift in Canadians' attitudes toward immigration can only be described as tectonic. Any politician who comes to power will have to take this into account.
Why did the shift in Canadians' attitudes toward immigrants occur?
The reason for the change in Canadians' attitudes toward immigration is quite simple – current Prime Minister Trudeau, who has made accepting refugees into Canada almost the cornerstone of his policy. It seems that he has no other concerns besides legalizing marijuana and accepting as many refugees as possible.
Literally from the moment he took office as prime minister, he immediately became actively involved in accepting a large number of refugees from Syria, of whom more than 50,000 entered. The saga of organizing the transportation of refugees to Canada cost the budget a tidy sum, which greatly displeased Canadians.
But it was not limited to Syrian refugees. In January 2017, Trudeau wrote on his Twitter: "To those fleeing persecution, terror & war, Canadians will welcome you, regardless of your faith. Welcome to Canada."
Trudeau's broad gestures led to a flood of people seeking refugee status in Canada. The situation was exacerbated by the fact that at the same time, the immigration situation in the United States changed dramatically. Trump virtually closed the country to refugees and generally made obtaining permanent resident status much more difficult. Therefore, many of those who had reached the United States hoping to settle there rushed to Canada.
All these people massively crossed the border illegally via tricky trails, and once on Canadian territory, they applied for asylum. This influx led to a full-scale crisis, as the country was not prepared for it. In total, over 2017 and 2018, more than 36,000 people entered the country this way alone.
In particular, because border and customs officers were mobilized to process refugees directly at the border, Canadian international airports experienced a severe shortage of staff, causing passengers to wait in long lines during the summer months.
There was also a problem with housing the large number of refugees. The government was forced to rent entire motels and hotels to house refugees, place refugees in homeless shelters, creating major problems for local homeless people who had nowhere to sleep, and occupy student dormitories during the summer months.
All of this naturally costs huge sums and causes strong irritation among Canadians, especially against the backdrop of dissatisfaction with the work of Trudeau's cabinet, which shows a complete inability to stimulate the economy in any way. As an illustration of Canadians' negative attitude toward immigration, the fact that Canada's Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Ahmed Hussen, became one of the most unpopular ministers in Trudeau's cabinet also speaks volumes.
The problem is also that Canadians mostly do not see the difference between immigrants (i.e., those who come through professional immigration) and refugees. These are not nuances they will delve into. Therefore, unfortunately, Trudeau, with his wide-open arms for refugees, has greatly complicated life for those planning to immigrate as skilled professionals.
How likely is a change of government?
It should be noted that Trudeau is not popular and certainly not highly respected in the country. At least, there is no trace left of the charisma that helped him win the previous election; for the most part, he has become a subject of ridicule.
Therefore, the likelihood that the Liberals can retain power is generally low. The only thing that could save them from total defeat is problems within the Conservative Party, their main rivals. The Conservatives are currently divided, and the party's leader, Andrew Scheer, does not even come close to possessing the charisma necessary for the post of prime minister.
So it is difficult to say whether the Conservatives can win the election despite Trudeau's catastrophically low popularity. But even if Trudeau's party can win, it will no longer have an absolute majority and will have to coordinate its position with other parties, primarily the Conservatives.
Therefore, in any case, with a very high degree of probability, we should expect changes in immigration policy.
What changes can be expected?
If conservatives come to power, one can quite expect a reduction in the number of immigrants accepted. Currently, Canada accepts about 310-330 thousand immigrants per year. It is possible that this figure could be reduced to 250 thousand – that is, the level that was in effect before the liberals came to power.
This mainly concerns, of course, reducing quotas for refugees, but it is possible that it will also affect those going through professional immigration. Although at present the Canadian economy is developing quite well, and the country has a record low unemployment rate, there are clear signs that the situation may change for the worse in the coming years. In this case, the need for specialists from among immigrants will decrease, and reducing the number of allocated quotas would be a quite logical step.
Another change to expect is the abolition of granting citizenship by birth on Canadian territory. Obviously, this scheme itself is already hopelessly outdated, as almost everyone acknowledges. A hundred years ago it made sense, because the country needed new residents, and those born on Canadian territory never left it.
Now the situation is completely different. Foreigners come to Canada only for the duration of childbirth and leave immediately afterward. The children born receive citizenship without having any connection to Canada, and often know almost nothing about the country, while traveling the world with a Canadian passport. And while in previous decades this problem was not acute enough to warrant a response, over the last 10-15 years "birth tourism" has become widespread, especially among Chinese.
In general, the issue of abolishing birthright citizenship is being discussed now in both the US and Canada, and it looks like a decision is not far off. The only question is whether such a decision will affect those children who have already received citizenship but have not yet reached 18 years of age, or only those born after the decision is made.
It is also unclear how the situation with family sponsorship for parents will develop. Although in recent years quotas for them have been raised to 20 thousand applications per year, this is still catastrophically low. Incidentally, many immigrants have a negative attitude toward Trudeau precisely because he brings in tens of thousands of refugees but allocates meager quotas for the parents of people who live in Canada and pay taxes.
Because the quotas are very small, many cannot sponsor their parents for years. Moreover, there is no more or less fair system for accepting applications. For the last three years, a lottery was held among submitted applications, and this caused much dissatisfaction. As a result, in 2019 they returned to the previous system – processing applications on a first-come, first-served basis. However, because almost everyone submits a sponsorship application as soon as applications open (literally within the first minutes), the selection of applications turns into the same lottery.
Perhaps this is the biggest problem that has yet to be resolved. And this despite the fact that every party tries to secure the support of ethnic communities, for whom the opportunity to sponsor parents and bring them to Canada is a burning issue.
Finally, when it comes to professional immigration, potential problems also loom. The fact is that currently almost all immigration has been reduced to immigration through study. The meaning of such immigration is that foreign students who have studied at a Canadian college or university receive an open work permit for 3 years. With this permit, they can take up employment in Canada without any restrictions, which subsequently gives them the opportunity to immigrate either through the federal Canadian Experience Class program or through one of the provincial programs.
The problem is that the number of foreign students studying in Canada increases year by year. At the end of 2017, more than 500 thousand foreign students were studying in Canada. There is no data for 2018 yet, but everyone notes a sharp increase in their numbers due to the US tightening the issuance of study visas.
Tightening of immigration policy has also occurred in the UK and Australia, so a large flow of students has redirected to Canada. Incidentally, Canada ranks fourth in the world in terms of the number of foreign students.
However, Canada's popularity also has a downside. The increase in the number of students means that it will become more difficult to immigrate in the foreseeable future, as there are already more applicants than quotas allocated, and the situation will only worsen. Moreover, as indicated above, the economic situation in Canada may deteriorate in the coming years, and graduates will find it harder to find work.
The Last Calm Year
Obviously, the accumulated problems in the field of immigration will sooner or later require resolution. For now, they are not acute, but the new government will be forced to deal with them. The other thing is that depending on the election results and which party forms the government, the degree of change will vary.
In any case, if changes do begin, they will not happen before next year. So for now, enjoy the calm year; it may be the last year without major changes.