Well, that was their right, guaranteed by the Union Treaty with Serbia of 2003. At that time, Montenegro agreed to remain part of the common state on the condition that after three years its citizens would have the right to hold a referendum and decide the question of independence. They exercised this right on the Sunday before last, holding a referendum under EU supervision.
Now the Russian press is accusing the European Union of wanting to finally "finish off" Serbia by tearing Montenegro away from it. It is hard to agree with such claims: the EU can in no way be interested either in creating a new hotbed of tension in the immediate vicinity of its borders, or in the appearance of 630,000 additional people who want to immediately become equal with the citizens of EU member states. Since neither the economy, nor the political conditions, nor the level of development of Montenegrin civil society even remotely resemble what Europeans think "new relatives" should be like.
Over the past three years, European politicians have repeatedly attempted to convey this simple idea to the Montenegrin leadership, but Prime Minister Djukanovic always interpreted signals from Brussels in his own way. When the European Commission told him that "Montenegro does not meet any of the Copenhagen criteria" (which determine admission to the EU), Djukanovic told his fellow citizens that "the European Union has expressed its readiness to finance Montenegro's development to the required level." When the European Parliament expressed concern about the level of crime in Montenegro, the dashing prime minister immediately "passed the ball" toward Belgrade. It was, they say, the Serbs who were to blame, but once we separate, everything will be like Switzerland.
It should be admitted that a considerable share of responsibility for the Montenegrins' decision to separate from the Serbs also lies with the Belgrade leadership. Opponents of separation in Montenegro developed many options for the coexistence of the two republics within a single state. Montenegro had already enjoyed broad autonomy rights, but the leader of the pro-Serbian alliance in Montenegro, Predrag Bulatovic, proposed achieving more: in the event of preserving the union, Montenegro would, in essence, run its own affairs itself, leaving to the central government only matters of defense, foreign policy, and trade. He was even ready to support keeping the euro in Montenegro as the official means of payment - it has been legitimately in circulation there since 2002, irritating both Belgrade and Brussels. The latter is quite annoyed that the Montenegrin leadership is once again trying to present the European Union with a fait accompli, almost bulldozing its way into the EU.
However, the Serbian government did not support its Montenegrin supporters. In Belgrade's view, if the union state were preserved, the rights of Montenegrin autonomy should be not expanded but, on the contrary, limited. This tough stance gave the socialist Djukanovic and his supporting liberals and representatives of the Albanian and Bosniak minorities additional trump cards. In the event of separation, they proclaimed from the rostrum, Montenegro would cease to be a hostage of nationalist Serbian politics. Instead, they promised economic prosperity and immediate entry into the EU and NATO. And it does not matter what these two organizations think: "if they do not accept us, we will take matters into our own hands."
As for economic prosperity, the question is also very complex. Montenegrins living in Serbia, after the proclamation of an independent Montenegro, automatically become foreigners, and some of them will have to return to their homeland, increasing demographic pressure, worsening the situation on the labor market, and creating new interethnic problems. Thousands of Montenegrin students, lacking the means to pay for their education in a "foreign" Serbia, will be forced to leave Serbian universities. Many of them will try to make their way to Europe, so to speak, on their own, while others will again return home and, most likely, demand places in the few Montenegrin higher education institutions.
The main source of Montenegrin income - tourism - will most likely be on the verge of drying up. After all, the majority of tourists at Montenegrin resorts are neighboring Serbs, and Montenegro's departure will certainly affect their preferences. And Europeans, if they do go to the Balkans, prefer the more developed and prosperous Croatia. So what is left for the new state? An uncompetitive agricultural sector? It is quite capable of feeding the country, but its exports are practically zero. And almost all of the industry remained in Serbia...
Moreover, the very fact of Montenegro's withdrawal from the union state creates a most dangerous precedent. It is already obvious that the Serbs, who have in fact lost Kosovo and now Montenegro, will also have to think about how to cope with the Hungarian nationalists from Vojvodina. However, in Montenegro itself there is also a fully formed national-territorial enclave - the Albanian one. If Montenegrins separated from Serbia, why should Albanians not wish to separate, in turn, from Montenegro? Such a "parade of sovereignties" could simply become unmanageable.
However, Montenegrins blinded by euphoria do not seem to have such thoughts in their heads yet. They are celebrating their independence and unanimously recalling that once, in 1878, the Berlin Congress had already recognized an independent Montenegro. At least one small particle of the common historical heritage Serbia and Montenegro may well preserve: the daughter of Slobodan Milosevic, who lives in Montenegro and is a citizen of this republic, hopes for the transfer of her late father's ashes to his homeland - to the State of Montenegro.
Boris ALTNER.
IA Rosbalt