Europe wants to redirect refugee flows
Distributing refugees, despite its apparent simplicity, has serious problems. There are many options, but finding one that suits everyone is not possible. It is clear that the determination of quotas should be tied to some objective indicator: population size, GDP, i.e., the level of economic development, etc.
Disputes among the interior ministers of the 28 EU members are quite heated. No one wants to bear an extra burden of costs, especially in a very difficult economic situation, and increase social tension in their countries.
Germany's opinion on this issue may become key, as it has long been one of the most attractive countries in Europe for migrants.
German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière believes that the main criterion should be the population size of the host country – the more people living in a country, the more refugees it should accept. It is clear that this principle should suit sparsely populated countries like Sweden, Greece, and Malta.
In addition to population size, the level of economic development of the host country may also be taken into account, because countries with comparable populations can have different levels of economic development. Obviously, Germany with its strong economy finds it easier to accept migrants than, say, Italy or France.
Currently, the distribution of refugees is carried out according to the so-called Dublin Regulation, which is based on the principle that refugees should be accepted by the countries through which they entered Europe. The Dublin Regulation, adopted in 1990, has already been amended and supplemented twice. The latest version, Dublin III, was adopted last year.
It is interesting to compare how different calculation methods affect the number of refugees accepted by European states. As of July 1, 2014, the largest share of refugees – 31.3% – expressed a desire to seek asylum in Germany. Other most attractive countries for newcomers are Sweden – 13.4%; France – 13.1%; Italy – 10.5%; United Kingdom – 6.1%.
The German magazine Spiegel calculated the number of refugees in these countries if quotas were distributed not according to the Dublin Regulation but according to other criteria. If GDP size, i.e., the economy, is taken as the main criterion, the distribution of refugees would look like this: Germany – 20.9%; France – 15.8%; United Kingdom – 14.5%; Italy – 11.9%.
Here is what the quotas would look like if population size is taken as the main criterion: Germany – 16.2, France – 12.9%, United Kingdom – 12.6%, and Italy – 11.8%.
And finally, in the case of using a combination of both criteria, which is possibly the most balanced calculation method, the following picture emerges: Germany – 19.4%; France – 14.8%; United Kingdom – 13.9%; and Italy – 11.9%.
It is obvious that for Germany and especially Sweden, abandoning the Dublin Regulation is beneficial because it would allow them to significantly reduce the number of refugees. For France and Italy, the changes are minor. The new distribution is most disadvantageous for the United Kingdom because the British would have to take in more than twice as many refugees as they do now.
Another problem, although no longer at the European level but within the EU member states themselves, is the distribution of refugees among states, provinces, counties, etc. For example, within Germany, there is a system for distributing refugees according to the so-called Königstein Key, which takes into account both the number of inhabitants and the economic development of the state. Only in Berlin, the economic criterion is not GDP but the amount of tax revenue.
Sergey MANUKOV.
«Expert Online»