– How will the change in migration legislation affect arrivals from neighboring countries? After all, they were promised liberalization, simplification of the employment procedure, but now it turns out that not everyone who wants to will be allowed into Russia.
– The current migration legislation, namely the law "On the Legal Status of Foreign Citizens in the Russian Federation" from 2002, provides for quotas only for foreign workers arriving from countries with a visa regime. In essence, invitations to enter are now subject to quotas – and that means visas.
The fact that neighboring countries – in particular, CIS countries, with the exception of Turkmenistan and Georgia, with which we have a visa regime – are not subject to quotas at all is one of the shortcomings of this law. Therefore, the new law, which comes into force on January 15, 2007, provides for the following norm: it will be possible to hire citizens entering the country visa-free practically without restrictions, but at the same time, if necessary, regional authorities and the federal government will be able to set quotas, taking into account the profession, qualifications, and citizenship of migrants. Strictly speaking, the law itself does not impose quotas on citizens of the CIS, but at the request of regions and the government, it will be possible to do so.
– Why was the issue of quotas for former compatriots raised? Did the events in Kondopoga influence it?
– Regulating the migration process from the CIS with quotas is indeed necessary today, because there should be no enclaves on the territory of our country where there are more citizens of another state than the indigenous population. That is obvious. According to our estimates, the compact residence of citizens of another nationality in any area of the country or region should not exceed 17-20%, especially if they are of a different national culture and religion. Exceeding this norm creates discomfort for the indigenous population.
And such hotspots already exist in Moscow – for example, in the area of the Cherkizovsky market, where many citizens from Azerbaijan live, and even an outflow of the indigenous population is planned. Assimilation and integration of newcomers into society in such areas, as a rule, does not occur; they begin to live by their own laws. As for the regions, we observe a similar situation in the Far East, in Primorye, where many Chinese citizens settle. Although we must give credit to Chinese migrants, they never behave defiantly, do not try to oppose their culture, but still live in seclusion, by their own laws, and create a parallel infrastructure. The same applies to Vietnamese and Turks.
– But if they come, it means they are in demand by the market.
– This, first of all, leads to a deformation of the domestic labor market. Migrants are less demanding, more hardworking workers. From the employer's point of view, these are their undeniable advantages, which make foreigners more profitable labor. But migrants, who for less money are ready to work not according to the norms of the Labor Code, but 15-20 hours a day, displace the native inhabitants of the country from jobs.
Of course, the impending demographic decline increases Russia's need for migrants. We need labor now, and we will need even more. World experience shows that all economically developed countries need foreign labor, and in their labor markets, as a rule, foreigners make up 10 to 20%. Therefore, we need to find a balance between domestic and foreign labor. This is what we are trying to do with the new migration legislation.
– And what are the proposals for the size of quotas?
– For the coming year, the quota for invitations from countries with which Russia has a visa regime will be slightly over 300 thousand. It was about the same size this year, and the quota was fully used. Moreover, as a rule, the quota is redistributed upward at the end of the year, since a reserve of about 50 thousand is always left. This reserve is now being used.
– And for CIS countries?
– No one can yet clearly determine the real need; we do not have a vacancy bank, and the labor market has not been sufficiently studied. The Ministry of Health and Social Development, which sets limits based on regional proposals, proposes introducing a quota of 6 million for citizens of the Commonwealth countries. We do not entirely agree with this figure. Approximately 10-12 million foreign workers are already working here, with the majority – about 7 million, according to our estimates – working illegally. In essence, these people are already integrated into the economy; the country needs them.
– But the government will determine the size of quotas, taking into account not only the numerical need for migrants, but also depending on their professional skills and even nationality.
– The country needs both qualified specialists who could manage business, construction, automotive industry, introduce new technologies, and a large number of unskilled workers. At the same time, it is quite difficult to check the qualifications and professional suitability of a newcomer before employment – diplomas are easily forged today. However, the employer can provide an assessment, who evaluates the migrant's skills with a certain salary. Therefore, we propose setting migration quotas, taking into account salaries as well. Thanks to this, we will be able to regulate the number of highly and low-skilled foreign workers in the country: for example, to invite no more than 10-20% of people with low wages, and the rest – highly paid specialists.
It is also advisable to divide quotas by type of economic activity. Currently, our newcomers are mainly engaged in construction – about 40%, wholesale and retail trade – 20%, the rest are distributed across various industries and agriculture. But there are also areas of activity in our regions where migrants simply displace the indigenous population.
A purely market-based approach in migration policy is not always possible, since interethnic relations must also be taken into account. Migrants will occupy an entire sector of the economy, live separately, and perhaps even become wealthier. What will be the attitude of the indigenous population towards them? This leads to interethnic conflicts, as, for example, in Kondopoga.
We also consider the proposal to divide quotas by citizenship to be correct. In the USA, for example, they set quotas: they take so many Brazilians, so many Puerto Ricans. This is normal. It is no secret that migration policy is always a political-diplomatic weapon, and the same America reduces quotas for some, and completely bans entry for others. And there is no human rights violation here. Another question is if we legally let a foreigner in, then we must ensure their rights. The state takes upon itself the obligation to protect the rights of those who entered legally on par with the rights of its own citizens.
– Who will ultimately determine the need for labor – the regions that need guest workers, or the federal center, which will use migration legislation as another argument in negotiations with neighbors?
– The regions determine quotas, and work permits and permits to attract foreigners are issued by our territorial bodies. The federal center retains the permits to attract migrants from far abroad – this is only 20% of the total flow, and it is the most politically sensitive area. Migration policy is still the prerogative of the president and the federal center, not the regions.
But they determine their own needs. Now and in the future, specific quota figures will be proposed by the subjects of the federation. The biggest needs today are in Moscow, which requests about 100,000 slots annually, St. Petersburg – half that. Third in terms of quotas is the Far East (15-20 thousand). And the Black Earth region, such as Belgorod and Lipetsk Oblasts, requests 1-1.5 thousand people. In general, quotas do not reflect reality; they need to be increased tenfold.
– What will you do with illegal immigrants who do not fit into the quotas based on some criterion – such as nationality or qualifications? Deport everyone?
– From an economic point of view, the issue is acute: there are many of them, more than a million. Due to increased administrative liability, employers will stop hiring illegal migrants, and there is a risk of criminalization. I hope that the majority will simply leave; for the most part, they are law-abiding citizens of the CIS, and as a rule, they do not grossly violate the law. There is another path – to declare a mass legalization, which is a far from unambiguous measure and is carried out in extreme cases. But since the critical situation has not yet arrived, the FMS does not intend to carry out this procedure of regularizing the legal status of foreign citizens on the country's territory. We are trying to solve the problem at the legislative level; practice will show whether this will be sufficient.