The British government may cut off "cheap" immigrants after Brexit
In a study published this week by the Migration Advisory Committee, it is said that by stopping the flow of cheap workers from EU countries, Britain must simultaneously begin to attract more medium- and high-paid skilled immigrants from around the world. As BBC notes, the report took a whole year to prepare, was commissioned by Theresa May's cabinet, and it is expected that Britain's migration policy will be built on its basis.
This policy also affects tens or even hundreds of thousands of Russian-speaking EU citizens: currently in Britain, according to rough estimates (no exact data exists), about three hundred thousand immigrants from Lithuania and Latvia already live. Among them there are many Russian speakers, and surely many more would like to move to Britain for work. Those EU citizens who already live and work in Britain are not threatened by anything as of now.
"If Britain can make decisions regarding the main characteristics of its migration policy, then we recommend making the entry regime for highly skilled labor more lenient than the entry regime for low-skilled workers, with no preferences for workers from the European Economic Area. More skilled workers usually have higher earnings and a more positive impact on the state's finances," explains the chairman of the Migration Advisory Committee, Professor Alan Manning.
The committee, however, acknowledges that Britain may retain some preferences for EU citizens in exchange for concessions from Brussels in other areas—primarily in trade.
According to the migration committee, a barrier to cheap labor will generally benefit the economy, as it will force employers to use labor more efficiently, attract currently unemployed Britons, and higher average earnings will lead to increased effective demand.
However, many representatives of British business say that a shortage of cheap labor will primarily lead to higher prices. Moreover, in some sectors, immigrants simply cannot be quickly replaced.
"Any abrupt cut-off of labor from the European Economic Area would be problematic, if not catastrophic, for firms in many regions and sectors of the economy," the Daily Mirror quotes Jane Gratton from the British Chambers of Commerce.
The head of the Federation of Builders, Brian Berry, stated that if the committee's recommendations are implemented, it will paralyze the construction industry.
Opposition member from the left-wing Labour Party and opponent of leaving the EU, David Lammy, said that the Tory government wants to hit the poor. "The most vulnerable will pay. If fruit is not picked, prices will rise, and consumers will lose out," Lammy said.
Representatives of the healthcare system have repeatedly said that without nurses, caregivers, and cleaners from EU countries, they will, to put it mildly, have a hard time.
At the beginning of the week, the authoritative research center Oxford Economics published the results of a study according to which immigrants from the European Union bring an average of 2,300 pounds more per year to the treasury—in the form of the difference between taxes paid and benefits received—than native Britons. True, this difference is mainly provided by immigrants from "old" Europe, not from the new Eastern European members of the EU.
If the negotiations between Britain and the EU on withdrawal do not end in a quarrel and a no-deal breakup, then those EU citizens who already live and work in Britain are not threatened by anything as of now: the British government promises to introduce only a very simple registration procedure on a declarative basis for them. In addition, those who are still planning to come also have time. Since Britain and the EU plan to introduce a transition period from the moment of formal exit next March until the end of 2020, the new regime for labor immigrants is expected to be introduced from the beginning of 2021.
Until then—or at least until March—EU citizens in Britain retain full freedom of movement: come, settle, work without any formalities, as at home.