The economic crisis could reduce the flow of immigrants to Canada
As columnist for the publication "Russian Toronto" writes, the current situation is even more confusing than in November 2008, when the selection based on the list of priority occupations was announced. The reason for this situation is the economic crisis - it is unknown how long it will last and how severe it will be for Canada. Another factor is the uncertainty of the intentions of the Liberal Party, more precisely, its newly elected leader Michael Ignatieff.
Recall that the views of the Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, and the New Democrats on immigration issues differ somewhat. Conservatives see immigrants as workers capable of compensating for labor shortages in certain areas. Liberals and New Democrats have a somewhat different position; they mostly view the process of attracting immigrants as a way to increase the country's population and rejuvenate it. Let me remind you that Canada has the largest territory in the world with a population of only 32 million people.
The Conservatives' approach is reasonable, but their measures led to the creation of a completely inadequate list of priority occupations (the so-called "list of 38"), which revealed a lack of understanding of the current situation by those who prepared this decision. Few doubted that the list would be canceled or expanded, and this was expected as early as April-May. However, the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada came out with a completely new initiative, contradicting what he had said just a few weeks earlier. Canada may close its doors to a large group of immigrants if the Conservatives are not resisted by other parties, primarily the Liberals. But it is unknown whether they will do so.
A year ago, when the Conservatives introduced Bill C-50 in Parliament, which gave the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada the right to change immigration policy at his discretion, the Liberals did not vote against it. They explained their decision as an attempt to avoid inevitable early parliamentary elections, as they were not prepared for them. This decision was associated with the personality of the former party leader Stéphane Dion. Nevertheless, elections were called, but in the fall the Liberals lost them disastrously. Then there was the saga of forming a coalition of three parties. In the midst of an acute political crisis, the Governor General of Canada dissolved Parliament until the end of January, giving the parties time to decide. The Liberals, seizing the moment, changed their leader, replacing the comical figure of Stéphane Dion with the charismatic Michael Ignatieff. The Liberal Party began to gain popularity, and Michael Ignatieff is now the leader among Canadian politicians.
By the end of January 2009, the coalition had much more strength and reason to dissolve Harper's government than at the time of its formation. To do this, they needed to vote against the budget proposed by the Conservatives, thereby expressing a vote of no confidence in the government. Such a step would automatically lead either to the coalition coming to power or to new parliamentary elections. But Ignatieff decided not to escalate and obliged members of parliament from his party to vote for the budget. As a result, Harper's government remained in power, and the coalition collapsed. On the one hand, the Liberals postponed their fight with the Conservatives, and now at least until summer they are unlikely to take any decisive action. On the other hand, Michael Ignatieff gives the impression of a very ambitious person, intelligent and skilled in behind-the-scenes games. Perhaps he feels that the time for elections has not yet come - the party needs to gather supporters, election funds, etc. Finally, the motive for the decision to leave Harper's government in power could have been the calculation that, in the conditions of a developing crisis, the Conservatives would take full responsibility for its consequences. It is obvious that new elections will happen, but when that will occur is difficult to say.
Now the Conservatives can continue to make whatever decisions they deem necessary. Nevertheless, there are reasons to doubt that the proposal to reduce quotas for issuing immigration visas will be adopted; it is radical and will definitely turn Canada's ethnic communities against the Conservatives.
It is unclear why the list of priority occupations was developed, a new application procedure was introduced, and what the pre-screening center for applications in Sydney, whose opening cost millions, will do. Also, despite the economic crisis, the problem of Canada's aging population remains, and the influx of young immigrants is one of the main sources of growth for the country's working-age population.
The decisions made in immigration policy in the near future will depend on how long the economic crisis lasts and what its consequences will be. Although sometimes it seems that the economic crisis is used only as a pretext. And the true reason for the radical measures is the desire to solve the issue of immigration applications accumulated in embassies (some have been waiting in line for 5-6 years). Note that the problem of long processing times for immigration applications to Canada primarily concerns embassies in China, India, and the Philippines.
It should also be emphasized that a serious obstacle to a decision on reducing quotas could be the position of the liberals. Obviously, if the discussion is about reducing immigration quotas for issued visas from 265,000 per year to 210,000-220,000, this issue is unlikely to be resolved at the parliamentary level. However, if a more significant reduction is proposed under the Skilled Worker Class category, then opposition parties will not stand aside. Traditionally, liberals enjoy broad support from Canada's ethnic communities and position themselves as a party that defends the interests of immigrants. Let us recall that the liberals' defeat in the last election was largely due to the refusal of major ethnic communities to vote for them – they were reminded of the introduction of the new immigration law IRPA in 2002 and their support of the conservatives during the vote on Bill C-50. If the liberals do not oppose the proposal to reduce immigration quotas, they risk finally losing the favor of ethnic communities.
For those planning to apply under the Skilled Worker category and who meet the selection criteria, we advise you to hurry with your application. Judging by the work of the pre-screening center in Sydney and the Moscow embassy, the immigration process there can now be completed even within six months if everything is properly prepared, and most importantly, before submitting the application to Sydney.
We recommend paying attention to the business class, primarily the Entrepreneur and Investor categories. The situation is currently favorable for them. The reduction of quotas, if it happens, should not affect these categories.
As soon as an opportunity arises to go through the immigration process, it should be taken immediately. In case of any restrictions being introduced, one simply needs to be patient and wait until the situation changes for the better. All tightenings in the immigration sphere are, as a rule, short-term.
The statement by the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration of Canada is merely an expression of intentions, but it should be taken seriously. For example, in 2008, only 247,000 immigration visas were issued with a quota of 265,000. It is quite possible that in 2009 this figure will be even lower.