There are many explanations for the flourishing of piracy. The main one is that the world economy is critically dependent on maritime transport: it today carries about 90% of all intercontinental and about 45% of domestic goods. Therefore, any terrorist act on sea lanes will have a major public and political resonance. And that is what terrorists need.
After the end of the Cold War, the United States and Britain halved their military presence in the world's oceans, while Russia almost completely withdrew. Vast areas of water were left outside the zone of constant control. Americans even consider piracy a kind of 'peace dividend' paid for the end of the Cold War. Administrative control over extensive island territories by newly independent states has weakened – they cannot maintain the necessary forces at sea. Sometimes the governments of these countries simply lack political will. Most ships of the world merchant fleet are registered in Panama, Honduras, and Liberia – countries that do not have the naval forces needed to suppress maritime piracy.
After the terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001, security measures in air transport were significantly strengthened, so terrorists shifted their attention to the sea. They are attracted by the length of sea lanes, which provides more time for an operation than on an airplane, the large number and variety of potential targets, and their remoteness from national infrastructures. There are also technological factors. Pirates now have means that give them advantages in speed, surprise, and firepower even when attacking large-tonnage vessels with numerous crews.
According to the Lloyd's insurance fund, 89,000 passenger and cargo vessels with a displacement of more than 100 tons are registered worldwide, including about 55,000 vessels of more than 500 tons. The total tonnage of the world merchant fleet is 64 million tons. The record year for the number of attacks was 2000 – 469 cases; in 2002, 370 attacks were registered, and in 2003 – 445. The reduction in number is 'compensated' by the cruelty of pirates: in 2004, they used weapons in more than 100 cases. There is statistics by region: Southeast Asia and the Far East – 189 attacks, coastal waters of Africa and the Red Sea – 93, Indian Ocean – 87, Americas – 72. Overall, 70% of acts of maritime piracy occur in six regions: the coasts of Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, India, the Strait of Malacca, and the Gulf of Aden. Cases of piracy have been noted off the coasts of Somalia, Sri Lanka, and South America.
But the first place belongs to the Strait of Malacca, which separates Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia – on average about a hundred attacks per year. The length of the strait is 990 km. It is the shortest route around the Asian continent. Up to a third (by tonnage) of all world maritime trade passes through the strait; every day, 11 million barrels of oil are delivered from the Middle East to the Far East and up to 900 vessels pass through. Most pirate attacks are attributed to rebels of the Indonesian province of Aceh within a radius of 30 miles from Sumatra. Piracy in the South China Sea is controlled by one of the criminal triads; in total, according to Russian intelligence, there are five gangs in Southeast Asia. Piracy is also carried out by semi-legal groups acting under the cover of official structures of some maritime states.
As centuries ago, pirates board a ship. This tactic has not become outdated. In such cases, the group usually consists of six to seven people; it robs the cashier, crew members, and quickly leaves the ship. Groups of 70 or more people steal cargo. The attack is planned based on computer data about the ship's manifest. Pirates board the ship from the stern – even at speeds reaching 17 knots and above. The attack lasts from one to six hours. The most sought-after cargo are timber, rolled metal, and minerals. Sometimes the ship is captured by people who have infiltrated the crew. Sometimes they get on board with the help of an accomplice from the crew. Modern vessels with valuable cargo but small crews are very vulnerable to pirates – they use light high-speed boats that ship radars are unable to detect. They are armed with modern assault weapons and attack suddenly.
New trends have also emerged in this type of criminal business. IMB experts note a reduction in attacks on merchant ships and their cargo, a clear division of attack targets – either obtaining a ransom for a captured crew or seizing small vessels – tugs and barges. The number of attacks on tankers has increased by almost a quarter. It is clear that the risk of environmental consequences has increased by the same amount. In general, the most dangerous targets of attack are vessels for transporting liquefied natural gas and chemical materials. Interestingly, shipowners understate the degree of toxicity of such cargoes. Pirates have also taken into account the development of cruise tourism – this sphere, apparently, may soon gain popularity among maritime terrorists.
Terrorism as such is associated primarily with Al-Qaeda. This organization is also known at sea. According to the same Lloyd's insurance fund, Al-Qaeda has formed a military flotilla of 16–19 various cargo ships. Most of them were acquired by terrorists in 2002–2003 through a shipbroker's office in Greek Thessaloniki; about a third were bought from pirates of the Indonesian archipelago. The small displacement of the vessels (200–300 tons) made it possible to avoid their registration with the International Maritime Organization IMO and other similar structures. The Al-Qaeda flotilla is divided into two detachments. One is based in the Horn of Africa area and is aimed at operations in the western Indian Ocean. The second is based on the islands of the Indonesian archipelago and is oriented towards operations against ships passing through the Strait of Malacca. Two to four fireships of this flotilla are hiding in the ports of equatorial West African countries and are intended to strike at the largest ports of the United States.
Cargo ships are changing their naval architecture, being repainted and renamed, and being armed with, for example, rapid-fire automatic cannons, large-caliber machine guns, man-portable air-defense (MANPADS) and anti-tank (ATGM) systems. By their combat purpose, these ships are divided into strike ships and fireships. Most ships carry two to four high-speed boats, some of which are packed with explosives (sometimes up to three tons) and intended for ramming attacks. Terrorist ships can be disguised as pirate ships. There is a difference between pirates and terrorists. The former are aimed at personal enrichment, while the latter have political and religious motivation and often lack mercenary incentives.
Maritime terrorists have many tactical techniques in their arsenal. These include seizing large cargo ships and passenger liners for ransom and making political demands, exploding a fireship at an oil terminal, seizing a large-capacity vessel and sinking it in the waters of a major port or in the so-called narrows in areas of heavy shipping to block traffic. This also includes ramming attacks on cargo and passenger ships using watercraft or aircraft—both manned and unmanned. Ordinary maritime shipping containers could be used to covertly deliver weapons of mass destruction to the site of a large-scale sabotage.
One of the main dangers is terrorists seizing radioactive materials. In this case, they could create radiological weapons. And such materials are indeed transported by sea. Over the past 30 years, there have been more than 30 voyages with such cargo between Europe and Japan. Moreover, these ships usually sailed without escort, albeit along secret routes, without notifying coastal states.
So far at sea, thank God, there have been no terrorist attacks like those involving airliners. But the possible damage from the actions of maritime terrorists is still being calculated. A recent study at the Sandia National Laboratories of the US Department of Energy (SNL) at the Air Force base in New Mexico revealed that an attack on a tanker carrying liquefied gas could cause an explosion of such power that it would destroy everything within a radius of 1.5 km. The probability of such an attack is considered extremely low, but the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) took the study very seriously.
Specialists' recommendations to crews are simple: pass dangerous areas during daylight hours and at the highest possible speed. There are several tactical techniques: obtaining information in advance—usually through intelligence channels; round-the-clock monitoring of sea and air space in dangerous zones using radar and optoelectronic devices based on land, air, and sea. The same devices, but with higher resolution, are installed on ships. Deck barriers, including electrified ones, are also used on them. The protection of vital posts and compartments is strengthened, and television surveillance is installed. Cargo containers are fitted with equipment to alert about unauthorized opening. Coastal services are urgently notified of attempts to seize a ship. And, of course, the ship's crew is trained to repel attacks. Using, for example, non-lethal weapons, water cannon installations, and similar means.
Russia also has ways to fight maritime pirates. For four years now, Rosoboronexport, through the Counter-Terrorism Committee of the UN Security Council, has been offering foreign partners a broader range of specialized anti-piracy tools. These include, in particular, a territorial automated information system (TAIS), as well as an integrated coastal zone monitoring system. It includes various radars, optoelectronic means, hydroacoustic and magnetoacoustic stations, patrol ships, aircraft, and helicopters. The system's capabilities can be expanded. These two systems could well be used by a ship tracking center on the approach to the Singapore Strait on the Indonesian island of Batam. And aviation components could be included in the air support forces under the concept of "Eyes in the Sky." It is implemented by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand and provides for aerial patrolling over the Strait of Malacca.