Both political and economic factors have influenced the decline in outbound tourism
The truth, as often happens, is probably somewhere in between. When it comes to the European press, most publications about Russian tourists are more emotional than rational. For example, the 'dominance of Russians' is actively written about in the Czech Republic. At the same time, Karlovy Vary, the main 'Russian' resort in that country, according to local hotel and shop owners, experienced about a 15% decline in tourist flow this year. Mainly due to Russians and, partly, Ukrainians. Because of this, the Czechs even made significant staff cuts, and some small shops catering exclusively to Russian tourists were forced to close altogether.
At the same time, there is no doubt that in Prague, Russians are the main buyers of apartments and even houses. Of course, after the Czechs themselves and citizens of neighboring Slovakia. Local media write that it is primarily about real estate investments. This market in the Czech Republic is on the rise today – for the first time since the beginning of the 2008-2010 crisis, sales growth was about 10%. However, many apartments are bought by wealthy parents for children who came to study at Czech universities. Last year, more than 4,000 students from Russia were counted in the Czech Republic, and this year, according to the institutions themselves, their number has slightly increased. Additionally, some apartments are purchased for permanent residence by Russians who decided to leave the country in the past year and a half.
Previously, these citizens were counted as tourists, although they lived 'in two homes.' According to data presented at the beginning of Dmitry Medvedev's presidential term by the Institute for Contemporary Development (INSOR), at least 400,000 Russians lived more or less permanently in Eastern and Central Europe, in EU countries. At the same time, many of them did not obtain long-term visas or residence permits, living six months in Russia and the other six months in one of the EU countries.
Now, despite the risk of being restricted in rights at home due to the entry into force of the law on dual citizenship, which requires registration with the Federal Migration Service also for holders of short-term residence permits in a particular country, many Russians have preferred to obtain a full residence permit. Consequently, they have stopped receiving short-term visas to the EU and are no longer counted as tourists in Russia.
This is one of the main reasons why the counting tools used by the Russian Union of Travel Industry or Rostourism have shown a sharp decrease in the flow of 'Russians going on vacation abroad'.
The second, no less, and perhaps even more important reason, is openly stated in Moscow. Russians are afraid to go anywhere except Turkey, Thailand, or Egypt. The most cautious are wary of even going to these 'tried and tested safe' countries.
However, most of those who refuse to travel for security or ideological reasons (and there are such) avoid specifically the EU and the US.
Such behavior only slightly affects large cities like Moscow or St. Petersburg, where the population actively uses sources of information alternative to television, but in the provinces the trend is much stronger, as people develop a sense of vague threat from Europeans and Americans.
It is impossible to accurately calculate the impact of this factor. But it can be confidently stated that it exists, because many tourists who traveled abroad this summer and early autumn tell how their 'conservative' relatives and acquaintances dissuaded them.
There is another significant aspect of the decline in outbound tourism – formal and informal bans. According to rough estimates, up to 4.5 million Russians in 2014 were effectively 'non-departable'. These are not only people listed in debtor databases, but also mostly 'security officials' and even some 'ordinary' civil servants. Employees of the government, the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, judges, prosecutors (and therefore, in most cases, their family members, since vacations abroad in Russia are traditionally family-oriented) now do not travel abroad.
It is worth noting that they were the holders of approximately half of the foreign passports in the country. As well as a significant portion of the money spent on tourism. By the way, these same people more often used the services of travel agencies, which are now closing one after another. So these 'reluctant patriots' could not but play a serious role in the decline of outbound tourism.
However, there is a third, by no means ideological reason for this phenomenon. This is the collapse of the ruble exchange rate against the euro and dollar. In the European tourism industry, even in countries where their own currency is in circulation, such as the Czech koruna, Polish zloty, or Bulgarian lev, prices are still pegged to the common European currency. Therefore, foreign vacations have simply become a difficult-to-attain pleasure for Russians receiving income in rubles (and today this is the absolute majority, since the de-dollarization of the Russian economy has largely succeeded).
It turns out that the decline has indeed occurred. Arguing about this is pointless. But it is not possible to fully assess what role economic reasons played and what role political ones.
However, the decline is not as great as they say. Firstly, as mentioned above, because some Russians simply stopped being counted as tourists. Secondly, because frightened by the bankruptcies of travel companies, Russians have massively refused their services and now are not accounted for by industry authorities.
Now only the border service can answer the question of how many tourists we actually have. Perhaps it will do so, but not before the time comes to fine and criminally punish holders of dual citizenship.
Ivan PREOBRAZHENSKY.
IA 'Rosbalt'