However, as Focus writes, in reality the ban will affect only the largest Russian carrier Aeroflot and its affiliate Transaero (in early September the bankrupt Transaero merged with Aeroflot) and the airline Sibir (S7). At the same time, the sanctions do not affect the carrier UTair, which does not fly to Crimea.
Airspace closure
In September, Aeroflot will operate 270 flights, Transaero - 123 flights, and S7 - 64 flights to Kyiv and Odesa. That is, a total of about 450 Russian airline flights per month will be canceled. Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov has already stated that Russia will be forced to take mirror measures, banning flights to Russia by Ukrainian carriers if Kyiv closes its airspace to Russian companies.
This means the cancellation of 156 flights per month by UIA (Ukraine International Airlines) to Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Kaliningrad, 60 flights by Dniproavia and 30 flights by Motor Sich to Moscow. UIA has already canceled two flights on the Moscow-Odesa route, and Aeroflot has refused to operate three flights on the Kharkiv-Moscow route and three flights on the Moscow-Kyiv route. The airlines under sanctions have not yet officially announced changes to the winter schedule or the procedure for reimbursing passengers for purchased tickets, but UIA has already stated that the cessation of flights to Russia will lead to a revenue decline of $42 million per year. In addition, Boryspil Airport will lose 300,000 passengers per year.
However, for UIA, the closure of the Russian direction is an opportunity to expand its own network, believes Alexander Lanetsky, owner of the company Friendly Avia Support. "70% of the Kyiv-Moscow flow consists of Ukrainian transit passengers, most of whom fly further abroad. That is, stopping flights to Russia is a chance to bring back the passenger who currently uses the Moscow hub to our own flights," he explains.
By land and rail
Ukrainian passengers, mostly business people flying to Moscow and Saint Petersburg for negotiations, will now have to use connecting flights. Theoretically, the Russian traffic could be taken over by UTair and its subsidiary UTair Ukraine. However, as a Focus source in the country's aviation authorities reports, the company is unlikely to revise its route network towards expansion until the new rules of the game become completely clear.
Aviation experts believe that the most realistic option is to fly through hubs in Minsk, Riga (in this case, passengers do not need a Schengen visa as they do not leave the international zone of the airport), and Istanbul. It can be expected that UIA will reach agreements with the Belarusian Belavia on joint flights to Moscow, with tickets sold at a "through" fare, meaning a single price for the entire flight will be displayed in booking systems. In addition, tacit agreements with Russian airlines to set minimum fares on connecting flights cannot be ruled out, which would keep ticket prices on the Kyiv-Moscow route at the lowest possible level.
However, as Lanetsky believes, although airlines are interested in setting low fares, when flying through a hub, ticket prices will rise by at least 30% (today prices for a Kyiv-Moscow round trip in October range from $120-150 in economy class).
Travel time will also increase significantly. While a direct flight on the Kyiv-Moscow route currently averages 1 hour 30 minutes, according to Lanetsky's calculations, a trip with a transfer in Minsk will take about 4 hours, in Riga - 5 hours, and in Istanbul - 7 hours. The flight to Saint Petersburg will be even longer. A direct flight takes 1 hour 50 minutes. With a transfer in Minsk, travel time will be 4 hours, in Riga - 6 hours, in Istanbul - 7 hours.
The rise in ticket prices and increased travel time will lead to a decrease in demand for air travel and increase the number of passengers of Ukrzaliznytsia, believes former Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kava. But there will be no shortage of tickets to Moscow. "Although Ukrzaliznytsia cannot introduce new trains to Russia without coordination with Moscow, and the Russians are unlikely to agree to this, currently trains to Russia are not running at full capacity. The carrier can, if necessary, attach additional cars to the train, increasing the number of seats by up to 40%," he says.