The share of economy and comfort class in the structure of primary housing within the Moscow Ring Road is 46%, but only 3% are economy-class new buildings, according to the Inkom corporation. About 270,000 square meters of primary housing are under construction. The average price per square meter in the economy segment is 130,900 rubles, and in the comfort segment – 185,100 rubles.
In the third quarter of 2013, according to MIEL-Novostroyki, the following projects went on sale: residential complex «Etalon-City», residential complex «Vershinino», residential complex «Bely Park», a multi-story building at Melnikova Street, building 1, 3, block 5, and new buildings in the residential complex «Life-Mitinskaya», new buildings in the residential complex «Nekrasovka-Park». At the same time, according to experts, the volume of the cheapest housing will decrease.
«As for the possibility of expanding the supply of affordable housing in Moscow, it is unlikely to increase. There will be even less obvious 'econom' housing, as building this class of housing in Moscow is unprofitable. Comfort-class new buildings will appear, this is a fairly successful 'compromise' format. True, in such houses it is almost impossible to find an apartment cheaper than 8 million rubles, so this segment cannot be called 'affordable,'» believes Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center «Indicators of the Real Estate Market IRN.RU».
One of the likely scenarios for the development of the capital's new-build market is the construction of new housing on the site of industrial zones, which the Moscow government has long been talking about. «Despite the statement by the mayor of the capital that Moscow is 99% built up, the still undeveloped territories of industrial zones outside the Third Transport Ring have enormous potential.
These are good sites for complex projects that include not only high-quality expensive housing but also affordable homes for the average buyer,» Dmitry Taganov, head of the analytical center of the Inkom corporation, told Gazeta.Ru.
According to Metrium Group, almost every district has several promising industrial zones where redevelopment is planned. For example, «Yuzhny Port» (ЮВАО), «Donskiye Ulitsy» (ЮАО), «Yuzhnoye Ochakovo» (ЗАО), «Krasny Stroitel» (ЮАО), «Khapilovskaya» (ВАО), etc.
However, the development of industrial zones for developers is a long and costly process. At the same time, the authorities have abandoned point development, priority is given to comprehensive construction projects. «The authorities adhere to a policy whose essence is that the quality of life in the city should not deteriorate, and, therefore, housing construction must be accompanied by the simultaneous creation of all necessary quality and modern infrastructure, which is funded from the budget or other sources.
Thus, the budget simply cannot sustain high rates of new housing construction. As for the development of the city's largest industrial zones, this has been sought for 20 years. It is pleasing that specific projects and legally significant documents are already appearing, however, the physical implementation of such projects is mainly planned beyond 2015,» believes Alexander Pypin, director of the analytical center GdeEtotDom.ru.
The average cost of economy-class new buildings in Moscow, according to the company Best-Novostroy, has decreased by 9% since the beginning of 2013 compared to September 2012. Experts explain this by the release of new buildings in the Nekrasovka area. «At the same time, in individual residential complexes, price growth was 10-15% per year. Thus, in the absence of new economy-class projects, the growth of average prices in this segment by the end of the year will be up to 2%. In individual residential complexes, growth of up to 4% is possible by the end of the year,» believes Irina Dobrokhotova, chairman of the board of directors of BEST-Novostroy.
Experts do not expect drastic changes in the primary market due to the lack of active new projects entering the market. «We do not expect significant price changes in the short term; the market is currently in a state of stagnation. In the absence of global economic shocks, new building prices will change within inflation, plus or minus a few percent. As for abrupt changes in the dollar exchange rate, since prices for the vast majority of new buildings are denominated in rubles, currency fluctuations will not have a direct impact on the real estate market,» explains Sofia Lebedeva, general director of MIEL-Novostroyki.
The overall picture could change after housing construction on the territory of industrial zones. However, firstly, this process will be stretched over time. Secondly, because redevelopment of industrial zones is more expensive than new construction, it is more profitable to build higher-class housing in such areas.
Overall, given the trend that higher-class housing will be built within the Moscow Ring Road, we can expect an increase in average prices for new buildings over the next year until large projects for the development of industrial zones begin,» says Alexander Pypin.
If affordable housing does appear on the site of industrial zones, the process of reconstruction and development of large territories will be very extended over time, which is why it will not have an immediate impact on the market,» believes Oleg Repchenko.
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