Today in Lithuania there is a two-fold attitude regarding the republic's future in the EU: the external 'hurrah picture' does not correspond to the internal hidden anxiety. They talk about the growth in the number of 'euro-optimists', but this can largely be explained not so much by an understanding of EU reality as by recently inflated fears of Russia. The average Lithuanian today feels between two forces: to the East - scary Russia, a symbol of the past; to the West - rich European Union, a symbol of Lithuania's future. With such a primitive ideological picture, the choice was essentially predetermined.
However, this is an emotional choice. With a more rational approach, the European Union is by no means an unambiguous good. One cannot help but notice that the number of critical statements directed at Brussels in Lithuania has been increasing recently. Moreover, high-ranking officials are increasingly speaking out against the EU. On May 11, speaking at a diplomatic conference in Vilnius, Lithuanian Foreign Ministry Secretary Albinas Januška directly criticized Brussels for actually suppressing Lithuania's foreign policy initiatives. "Almost all the time we were scolded for going to extremes. We did not manage to achieve a single point the way we wanted, only compromises," the Foreign Ministry official said.
According to Januška, in almost all areas Lithuania has its own opinion that does not satisfy Brussels. This also concerns the embargo on supplies from China, which, according to the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry secretary, is linked to the interests of France and Germany, but not Lithuania at all. This also concerns Lithuania's position on the speedy admission of Ukraine and Georgia to the EU, which Brussels does not want to hear about yet. Furthermore, Lithuania takes a rather pro-American stance on the Iraq war, that is, a stance different from that of the EU founders. "We will have problems with Solana," the secretary of the Lithuanian foreign policy agency believes. "If we do not resolve these problems, if we do not have ambitions, then in a few years Lithuania may not have a foreign policy left."
One can guess what irritation Vilnius has to suppress when such words escape from the mouths of official representatives of power. Will Lithuania tomorrow become a provincial republic of the European Union, whose leadership's opinion will no longer interest anyone? Such a prospect of ending up on the outskirts of the great Brussels empire frightens many in the Baltic republic.
Following the loss of an independent foreign policy will come the loss of monetary control. With the introduction of the euro, scheduled for early 2007, Lithuania will become completely dependent on the state of the EU economy as a whole. And here the situation for the republic is not the most favorable. After all, today the Baltic countries still show economic growth of 6-8%, while in the 'old EU' signs of stagnation are increasingly evident. Stagnation could affect the strength of the euro, which would automatically hit Lithuania's economy and the pockets of ordinary citizens.
It is not surprising that voices in Lithuania are growing louder about the inexpediency of introducing the euro so soon. With the introduction of the euro, prices for telephone services and transport are expected to rise in Lithuania. Prices will also go up for a number of goods that Lithuanians will stock up on before the euro is introduced. Analysts are skeptical about government attempts to introduce some 'safeguards': under a market economy, the state will not be able to control prices.
Meanwhile, Lithuania's economic growth, although remaining at 5-6%, is already below the recent level of 8-9%. Years of zero inflation and even deflation have been replaced by gradually rising inflation, which has now crossed the 2% mark and is moving toward 3%. Lithuania's budget deficit is also approaching the fateful 3%, which serves as a barrier to entering the euro zone. But politicians' plans are optimistic: to bring the budget deficit back to 1.5% in the coming years. However, according to financial analysts, Lithuania's energy dependence on Russia and world fuel prices could be an obstacle to this. Since the beginning of 2005, electricity prices have jumped in Lithuania for the first time in many years. A further rise in oil prices could create a situation in which Lithuania will no longer meet the requirements for introducing the euro.
Finally, by early May, Lithuania discovered that not everything in its dealings with the EU was as smooth and happy as it had seemed before. When joining the EU, Lithuanians counted on huge inflows from EU structural funds starting in 2005. They thought that in the first year Lithuania would pay into the European budget, but later the Baltic republic would be repaid a hundredfold. EU structural funds indeed began to flow into Lithuania: for rural support, infrastructure development, business, and educational programs. However, in May it became known that the EU's old-timers (the main budget contributors) would subsidize the new EU members not at all in the volume that had been provided.
This news caused discontent and even some panic in Lithuania. First of all, farmers will suffer, who lived with hopes of a good chunk of the EU pie. Before joining the EU, it was Lithuanian farmers who were the main eurosceptics, and only the expected inflows from structural funds temporarily reconciled farmers with the EU. Now Lithuania expects a new surge of peasant discontent.
Lithuanians, who joined the EU just a year ago, are beginning to understand: the path to a united Europe is not a road to paradise, but rather a risky voyage to still very foggy shores.