On Monday morning, the initiator of the movement for the republic's self-determination, Montenegrin Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic, announced the victory of supporters of Montenegro's secession from Serbia. "Today, by the decision of the majority of Montenegro's residents, the country's independence has been restored," the prime minister declared. He also cited the preliminary official results of Sunday's referendum. According to Djukanovic, 55.5% of Montenegro's residents voted for secession from Serbia.
Supporters of unity between Serbia and Montenegro, meanwhile, are in no hurry to recognize the results of Sunday's referendum and speak of the possibility of falsification.
The nervousness and fears of supporters of preserving the union of Serbia and Montenegro are understandable. The outcome of the referendum will apparently indeed be decided by less than 1% of the votes. The fact is that under the agreement with the European Union, supporters of independence must obtain a minimum of 55% of the votes in the referendum to succeed in seceding from Serbia. At the initial stage of vote counting, it was reported that 56.3% had voted for secession. This figure then dropped, by various estimates, to 55.5% and even 55.3%. The threshold preliminary data largely explains the doubts and nervousness of both supporters and opponents of Montenegro's separation.
If the preliminary results of the referendum are confirmed, it will mean the final disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, which began in 1991, when former Yugoslav republics such as Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Croatia and Macedonia, one after another, chose the path to independence. Montenegrins, meanwhile, maintained their union with Belgrade and acted, it seemed, consistently and irrevocably. In 1992, in a similar referendum, Montenegrins voted by a majority of 96% to preserve the federation.
This time everything is different. Hundreds of supporters of Montenegro's separation from Serbia took to the streets of Podgorica and other cities as early as Sunday. They are setting off fireworks, celebrating the results of the referendum.
Let us recall that formally the Montenegrins are attempting not to acquire but to restore their independence, which the country obtained in 1878 at the Congress of Berlin. However, in 1918 Montenegro lost its independence after Belgrade took advantage of the presence of the Serbian army on its territory and arranged the election of a suitable composition of the Montenegrin assembly (parliament), which abolished the Montenegrin monarchy and declared annexation to Serbia. The Montenegrin authorities set a course for restoring independence back in 1999, when NATO bombing of Yugoslavia began in connection with the conflict in Kosovo. Montenegrin leader Djukanovic then stated that his republic was not participating in this conflict, froze all contacts with Serbia, and essentially began to pursue an independent policy. Subsequently, the population of the republic felt the positive aspects of self-government, especially after the rule of Milosevic ended five years ago. However, the referendum on independence planned at that time was postponed at the request of the European Union, which was concerned about the growing territorial fragmentation in the Balkans.
Vasily Sergeyev.
BBC