Agitation by Swiss right-wing populists is always loud, colorful and scandalous
On September 27, World Day of Migrants and Refugees, Switzerland is holding a referendum on canceling the agreement with the European Union under which citizens of EU countries and Switzerland can freely live, work and enjoy all social benefits on both sides of the border, as if at home. If this proposal passes, the Swiss government must within a year terminate the agreement with the EU or negotiate new migration terms with it.
According to BBC, the referendum was initiated by the right-wing populist Swiss People's Party, which assures its voters that newcomers from the EU are taking their jobs. "I don't want to see Swiss families suffering under the burden of millions of immigrants from the European Union," said SVP leader Marco Chiesa in August, when he was elected party chairman.
"Workers from the European Union are taking jobs from Swiss people. Businessmen from the EU who run Swiss companies do not know local conditions and often are guided by different interests than we Swiss," Chiesa's deputy and entrepreneur Magdalena Martullo-Blocher argued in a recent interview with several German-language Swiss newspapers.
Polls show that the SVP initiative will almost certainly fail: about 60% of Swiss oppose canceling the agreement with the EU, about 35% support it. But if a surprise occurs and the majority votes "yes," it could turn into a catastrophe: the entire system of EU-Switzerland relations would collapse.
Switzerland is not a member of the European Union, but is as closely integrated as possible into the single market for goods, services, capital and labor of the EU through several treaties, one of which is the agreement on the free movement of people. Switzerland is also part of the Schengen Area. Moreover, all these agreements operate as a "package": if one is canceled, all are canceled.
Politicians from the SVP, much like British Brexiteers before the 2016 referendum, argue that the European Union itself is interested in maintaining economic relations and will readily agree to immediately re-sign all treaties unchanged—except for the migration treaty. But most voters and all other leading parties do not believe this. They fear that the EU might take a stand on principle, including to show Britain, with which difficult and so far fruitless negotiations on final Brexit are ongoing, that Brussels cannot be pressured into major concessions.
"Approval of this initiative would be worse than Brexit. The EU is not at all obliged to start negotiations with us," said Swiss Justice Minister Karin Keller-Sutter of the centrist Free Democratic Party.
"The EU would thus create a very bad precedent for Brexit negotiations by allowing us to pick and choose what we like. We already pick and choose—why allow us even more?" said political scientist Sean Mueller of the University of Lausanne to The Local.
In Switzerland, with a population of 8.5 million, according to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, nearly 2.2 million foreign citizens live, including 1.4 million EU citizens. The largest groups are Italians (321,000), Germans (307,000) and Portuguese (260,000). In addition, more than 400,000 residents of border regions commute daily (or commuted before the pandemic) to Switzerland for work. On the other hand, several hundred thousand Swiss live and work in EU countries.
The Swiss People's Party (in the French- and Italian-speaking parts it is called the Democratic Union of the Centre) is the most popular party in Switzerland. Its current rating is 26% (the nearest rivals have 17%). The SVP controls just over a quarter of the seats in the lower house of parliament and has two of the seven seats in the Federal Council—Switzerland's "collective head of state."
In 2014, the SVP already secured a referendum on limiting immigration from the EU and even won it: 50.3% voted "yes." But then, according to political scientists, many Swiss used that referendum as an opportunity for a largely non-binding protest vote.
"One reason that proposal passed in 2014 is that it was very vague. It talked about immigration quotas but didn't specify what the quotas should be. So voters decided to let the government know they were unhappy without doing anything concrete," explained Sean Mueller of the University of Lausanne to The Local.
That referendum caused a minor rift in EU-Switzerland relations, but in the end the parties "kicked the can down the road": the Swiss parliament passed a law giving priority to Swiss residents—both Swiss passport holders and foreigners—for jobs, but did not introduce quotas.
In 2009, the Swiss People's Party made world news by securing a constitutional ban on building new minarets at mosques in the country. In the referendum initiated by the SVP on this issue, 57.5% of voters supported the ban.
In Switzerland, all important issues are decided by referendums, and in this country, unlike most others, a referendum is a frequent and ordinary event. This Sunday, for example, there will be a nationwide vote not only on immigration but also on four other different issues.