VTsIOM: every tenth Russian wants to leave for another country
As Gazeta.Ru writes, 17% of future migrants want to leave in the next year or two, 22% set themselves the task of emigrating within five years. As the latest VTsIOM poll showed, suitcase moods primarily prevail among the youth: 25% of 18-24-year-olds dream of leaving the country. Among 25-34-year-olds, such moods are found in 16% of respondents. Traditionally, residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg lead in emigration sentiments – 21%.
The government reports exiting the recession and economic growth of 2% by the end of the year, but this does not add much optimism to Russians. According to the latest VTsIOM poll, about 10% of Russians do not have enough money even for food, and another 29% barely have enough money for clothes. Last week, the head of the Accounts Chamber, Tatyana Golikova, stated that since the beginning of the year, the number of poor in the country has increased by 2 million people. In January–May, real disposable incomes of the population fell by 0.8%.
The emigration trend will persist for a long time, believes Yevgeny Gontmakher, Deputy Director of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. To improve people's lives, reforms are needed, not economic growth: 1-1.5% growth is not felt by Russians, the expert emphasizes. "And no one in our country will carry out large-scale reforms, so the emigration process will remain relevant for a very long time," Gontmakher believes.
According to Rosstat data for January–April of this year, the number of people who left the country increased by 12,900 people, or 14.1%. In the first four months, 104,096 residents of Russia left the country compared to 91,226 people in the same period of 2016.
VTsIOM notes that the most attractive country for Russians dissatisfied with life at home is Germany (13% of those wishing to immigrate chose this country, compared to 12% a year ago), followed by the USA (10% versus 7% in 2016). Next come Australia (7%), Italy (5%), and England (4%). New Zealand, Spain, and Israel each accounted for 3%. At the same time, the number of those wishing to move to France decreased significantly (from 5% to 1%).
If in quantitative terms the number of those wishing to leave the country has decreased slightly (10% versus 11% in 2016), then qualitatively the situation has changed: people have begun to make the choice towards migration more consciously, more often set real deadlines (a year or two), and prepare for the move – save money, learn the language.
Russians cite a higher standard of living, salaries, pensions, and benefits as the most popular reason for changing their permanent residence (33% of respondents). The average monthly nominal accrued wage of employees of organizations in the Russian Federation for April 2017, according to Rosstat, was 39,839 rubles (no data for May yet). According to the latest Central Bank survey, the majority of respondents (51%) note that their financial situation has not changed over the past year. 19% expect it to worsen in the next year.
At the same time, in Germany, where most respondents dream of moving, the minimum wage from January 1 is set at €8.84 per hour or €1,414.4 per month, and the average salary reaches €3,600. The average worker in the USA earns $25 per hour, highly skilled workers – pilots, doctors, financiers – can have an annual income of several hundred thousand dollars. At the same time, a good level of income in the country is considered to be $100,000 for a family of three.
Russians have begun to associate the search for a better life not only with the standard of living but also with the socio-political situation, notes VTsIOM analyst Ivan Lekontsev. When choosing a permanent residence, Russians have begun to value factors such as social stability, climate, and ecology more.
Some compatriots no longer find their place in Russia, and these people are ready to seek a new life abroad – "mainly in stable Western countries, which are still closer to us in culture than Arab countries, Latin America, or China," the expert says. Thus, 15% of respondents are ready to go abroad for stability and social security. Compared to last year, the number of those dissatisfied with the current government and its policies has increased 2.5 times – from 5% to 13%. The climate and state of ecology in Russia do not suit 12% of respondents.
In addition, this year Russians cited factors as reasons for moving that were not mentioned in 2016: the level of culture and medicine in another country (11% and 4%, respectively), respect for human rights (10%), unemployment in Russia (4%). The number of citizens who categorically do not want to live in Russia and show a strong love for another country has almost tripled (10% versus 3% in 2016).
The number of those who actually leave the country has not changed much over the past 10 years. And not everyone who expressed a desire to emigrate will actually leave the country, notes Andrei Pokida, Director of the Center for Socio-Political Monitoring at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. These figures rather show the level of protest sentiment – the number of people extremely dissatisfied with the current state of affairs in the economy or the political situation in the country.