The long-term demand of the German labor market for foreign professional personnel is estimated at 260,000 people annually
As reported by "Russkaya Germaniya", this is the main result of a study conducted by the Nuremberg Institute for Employment Research (IAB) and the Coburg University of Applied Sciences on behalf of the Bertelsmann Foundation. At the presentation of the study's results, Bertelsmann Foundation board member Jörg Dräger noted that the experts' calculations already took into account such "positive indicators" as rising birth rates in Germany, increased female employment, and even the gradual raising of the retirement age to seventy. "Even with this positive development, we cannot do without an additional 260,000 workers annually," says Mr. Dräger, recalling that in 2017 only 38,000 specialists entered the Federal Republic from abroad.
According to the study's authors, the German economy should not rely too much on an influx of skilled labor from EU countries. This potential is already nearly exhausted, as many other EU countries are actively and quite successfully attracting such labor migrants. The only way to compensate for the labor shortage on the German labor market is to attract specialists from third countries.
As calculated by experts, up to 2035 the Federal Republic needs 98,000 such immigrants; from 2036 to 2050, 170,000; and from 2051 to 2060, 200,000. Thus, on average, this figure is 146,000 people annually.
The study particularly emphasizes that Germany should focus on admitting highly qualified immigrants, which is extremely necessary in the context of globalization and the further digitalization of the German labor market. Meanwhile, it is noted that the current federal government's immigration policy does not meet these demands.
For example, in 2017, more than a third of all immigrants who arrived in Germany from non-EU countries in search of a better life did not have documents confirming their professional qualifications. "If we look at the countries from which the main flow of asylum seekers comes, almost 65 percent of immigrants who arrived in Germany are employed only as service personnel," the report concludes.
According to experts, it is already necessary to adjust the Federal Republic's course in immigration policy so as to "avoid creating a pool of personnel that cannot be utilized in the real sector." "The Immigration Act approved by the federal government must be urgently adopted," sums up Bertelsmann Foundation board member Jörg Dräger.
At the same time, he emphasizes that legislative acts alone are clearly insufficient to solve the problems facing the German labor market. "Without special integration offers and a culture of welcoming people from other countries, the labor shortage cannot be overcome," notes Mr. Dräger.
Recall that at the end of last year, Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet approved the draft Immigration Act and sent it to the Bundestag. This legislative act primarily concerns the introduction of "regulated, needs-oriented labor immigration for the German economy." The draft law notes that Germany remains interested in attracting highly qualified personnel—people who, in addition to higher education, also have solid professional experience.
However, at the same time, the law creates an opportunity for low-skilled workers to find employment in Germany. All restrictions on professions previously imposed by the Federal Employment Agency are lifted. After the new Immigration Act is adopted by the Bundestag, it must still be approved by the Bundesrat.