The German authorities are considering the termination of the Schengen zone in its current form. This was stated in an interview with BBC journalists by German Interior Minister Thomas de Maizière. As Gazeta.ru notes, the minister's statement was made in a very cautious manner and with a number of caveats:
“I hope that Schengen will survive. We support it ourselves, as we are in the center of Europe and that is a great advantage for us,” de Maizière said. However, he immediately emphasized that today not all EU members observe the basic principles of visa-free border crossing among the states that are part of the Schengen Agreement. “If not everyone complies with the law, then the Schengen agreements are in danger; we need to make pan-European decisions to preserve the treaty,” the German interior minister noted.
“I would like to avoid this, but I do not rule out the termination (of the Schengen zone)” – this is how the politician answered the journalists' direct question about whether he allows for the abolition of the treaty on free border crossing between EU countries. De Maizière also did not rule out the possibility of introducing border controls to reduce the flow of migrants.
According to media reports, Germany expects up to 800,000 refugees from various countries to arrive this year. Other European Union countries expect a much smaller number of forced migrants. As reported by the German radio station Deutsche Welle, regional authorities in Germany are preparing for a sharp increase in costs associated with migration to this country. The sums allocated for accommodation, material support, and incidental expenses for asylum seekers in Germany could increase by 6 billion euros per year in the very near future. “We expect a significant increase in the volume of funds,” stressed Gerd Landsberg, chief executive of the German Association of Cities and Municipalities. In addition, according to him, municipalities urgently need to develop a housing construction program, which may require “at least 2 billion euros.”
According to DPA news agency, in 2014 the total amount of spending by the German Federation, its states, and municipalities on migrant adaptation was about 2.2 billion euros. The number of arrivals in Germany, including illegal ones, is growing year by year. This is confirmed by data from local law enforcement agencies, which Deutsche Welle publishes.
According to information from the regional directorate of the federal police, in the city of Bad Bentheim alone, 746 cases of illegal border crossing were recorded in 2014. In 2011, only 324 such incidents were recorded. Since the beginning of 2015, law enforcement agencies have detained about 400 people. According to German police, most refugees are from Eritrea and Syria. Often they are looking for their relatives in Germany or trying to reach Scandinavian countries.
The problem of illegal migration prompted EU leaders to agree on an even distribution of arrivals among all bloc countries. At the EU summit held in Brussels at the end of July, it was decided to place 40,000 migrants from various countries in all EU members this year. According to European Council President Donald Tusk, this program is designed for up to two years. Nevertheless, some states soon thereafter began to put forward their own conditions for hosting foreigners.
The Schengen zone includes 26 European states that have joined the agreement of the same name, signed in Luxembourg in 1985. This zone operates largely like a single state with border controls on the external border – upon entry and exit from the zone, but without border controls on the internal borders of the states included in this zone.
Nikolai Kaveshnikov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences and head of the MGIMO department for European integration, is confident that the Schengen treaty will not cease to exist and a return to the situation on Europe's borders in the late 1980s is impossible. “It is absolutely not beneficial to anyone; I believe that the statement by the German interior minister is an element of very tough bargaining. It is being conducted between Italy, Greece, and Hungary, on the one hand (that is, the countries where migrants arrive), and on the other hand, the Nordic countries and Germany, which do not want arrivals who initially came to Italy, for instance, to come to them,” the expert noted.
“The EU regime has some flexibility. It allows for the introduction of temporary border controls – during some summits or football matches, as well as in the event of emergency situations. Currently, the Schengen treaty system is in a state of crisis, and no one can give an accurate forecast of how the situation will develop,” Kaveshnikov noted. He added that a possible German exit from the Schengen zone would affect Russians little. “Our citizens who want to come to Germany from other European countries will simply need to present a passport with a Schengen visa at the border,” the expert said.
Professor Grigorii Golosov of the European Institute in St. Petersburg believes that Germany could well leave the Schengen zone. “Germany is a sovereign country and has the right to withdraw from this treaty at any time. Although this is fraught with certain economic costs for it. However, it cannot be ruled out that such statements are an element of complex bargaining, and perhaps Schengen can be preserved in the end if Berlin receives certain guarantees from southern European countries that they will better control their migration flow,” Golosov said.
The expert also believes that such a measure is unlikely to have a serious impact on citizens. He also noted that even the cancellation of the Schengen Agreement does not mean that the future of the EU is in question. «The European Union existed long before the adoption of the Schengen Agreement. And as a free trade zone and as a political union, it certainly has a future. However, integration processes in an era of economic prosperity may have gone too far. Therefore, some backward steps are possible now, but they do not cancel the future of the EU in principle,» the expert noted.