According to experts' forecasts, the future of IT specialists looks more than reliable in Germany
It would seem that during a pandemic it is difficult to make any forecasts. And researchers from the Bonn Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB) and the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) in Nuremberg do not undertake to predict its long-term impact on corporate strategy and employer behavior. In the short term, they allow two years for economic recovery after lockdowns.
But even with all the negative consequences of the crisis, they consider other factors decisive for the German labor market: the demographic situation and economic structural changes. How will this affect personnel policy? Deutsche Welle invites you to look into their report with a forecast.
More elderly – more medical workers
Researchers from Bonn and Nuremberg made model calculations for the next 20 years. In their forecast, they took into account several trends that are already obvious now. The first is demographic. In total, the number of residents by 2040 will even increase slightly and amount to about 83.7 million. At the same time, life expectancy in Germany is increasing, and consequently, the working-age population will decrease by 5.2 million people.
With demographic changes, healthcare issues will become increasingly important, and doctors and nursing staff for the sick and elderly will be the most employed. The aging population will lead to the fact that the majority of workers in 2040 will be employed in healthcare and social welfare.
Industry – in the red, services – in the black
In their calculations, the researchers took into account planned changes in the economy and politics: measures provided for by the economic stimulus package and the climate package adopted by the German government in 2020. Consumer behavior, which caused the growth of online trade and an increase in the number of approvals for electric vehicles, was also taken into account.
Another already emerging trend will be important for the labor market. In recent years, the employment structure in Germany has seen a gradual shift from industry to services. In the future, this trend will intensify. But in manufacturing, it will be necessary to cut staff by almost one and a half million. The decline in export dynamics and the need to adapt to new realities in the automotive industry will also have an effect.
The boom observed in the construction sector, according to researchers, will subside in the long term. Again, demography is to blame: new houses and apartments will no longer be needed in such large numbers. As a result, the demand for representatives of construction specialties will also decrease. A slight reduction will also be observed in the production of goods. There will be fewer employees in retail trade (unlike online trade), as well as in car service.
Personnel policy and German geography
In different federal states of Germany, the situation with a shortage or surplus of labor will develop differently. Data on which sectors currently have the highest employment by region are of interest. In the north, these are agriculture and forestry, as well as fishing. In the south, in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, many work in manufacturing.
In eastern Germany – in construction, social welfare, and administrative management. In Berlin, as in Hamburg, a large share of workers are in business services. In the German capital, more specialists than the national average are employed in entertainment, recreation, and education, as well as in creative professions.
Taking into account regional specifics, the authors of the report venture to predict that the decline in industry will affect the reduction of jobs primarily in the east (excluding Berlin) and south of the country. In North Rhine-Westphalia and Saarland, fewer personnel will be needed in metal production. Structural changes will not affect Berlin and Hamburg – here the number of employees will only grow.
Demand for specialists by field
One area will clearly benefit from structural changes. The course towards digitalization that Germany has already taken has revealed a shortage of specialists in information technology. The demand for personnel in IT services will only increase.
The time to find a suitable candidate for a vacancy by 2040 will increase by four days: employers will need an average of up to 73 days. The hardest jobs to fill will be in fields such as mechatronics, energy and electrical engineering, information and communication technologies, medicine, wellness, body care, and medical technology, throughout Germany. Already last year, it took the most time to find personnel in these areas.
Today, doctors are in demand primarily in eastern Germany, Bavaria, North Rhine-Westphalia, and Rhineland-Palatinate. Mechatronics and electronics specialists – in Bavaria and the eastern states. IT specialists – in Berlin, Hamburg, and Saxony.