According to estimates by the US Department of Transportation, the risk of dying on an airliner flight is estimated at 1 in 52.6 million. The risk of death for passengers on smaller aircraft making short flights is significantly higher - 1 in 581,400. For passengers on small aircraft (sports planes, air taxis, etc.) it is even higher - approximately 1 in 164,000. For comparison, the risk of death in a road traffic accident is estimated at 1 in 7.6 million.
According to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the risk of dying in a plane crash on domestic airlines of industrialized countries is 1 in 8 million. In developing countries on domestic flights, this probability increases to 1 chance in 500,000. The risk of death for a passenger on international flights between industrialized countries is 1 in 5 million. International flights between developing and developed countries are more dangerous - 1 in 600,000. On flights between developing countries, the risk is highest – 1 in 400,000.
But each of these risks can be minimized by heeding the recommendations of experts. For instance, the non-profit organization womenforsafety.org explains how to behave properly during a fire. Aviation safety experts will advise where is the best place to sit on a plane to survive a crash.
It turns out it is safest to sit in the tail section of the plane – passengers who are closer to the tail have a 40% higher chance of survival in a crash than those sitting in the front rows of the cabin. In 11 out of 20 accidents, fate favored passengers in the tail section; in only five cases was it safer to be in the front. In another three crashes, no pattern could be identified, and in one case there was no data on the distribution of surviving and deceased passengers.
Seven of the 11 crashes in which passengers at the rear of the cabin were lucky occurred when their planes struck obstacles. All five accidents in which passengers sitting in the front of the cabin survived occurred between 1988 and 1992.
Calculations of safety levels for different seats on a plane showed that for passengers in the rear, the chance of survival is 69%. For those whose seats are at the wing line – 56%. Business class passengers, traditionally located in the front of the cabin right behind the cockpit, risk the most – their chance is estimated at 49%.
The most dangerous month for air travel is September. This conclusion was reached by the online publication PlaneCrashInfo.com after analyzing data on plane crashes that occurred between 1950 and 2002. More than 10% of annual crashes occur in September, approximately the same number occur in December. May has the smallest share of annual plane crashes – about 6.8%. The riskiest days for air travel are August 12 and 29, September 3 and 11, October 2, November 23, December 7, 8, 21 and 22 (on this day more crashes occurred in different years than on others – 17).
According to estimates by the International Air Transport Association, in most cases the main cause of a crash is pilot error (including forced errors, for example, due to adverse weather conditions) – pilots are at fault in 53% of accidents. In 20% of cases, crashes occurred due to mechanical failures, in 11% due to weather (including hurricanes, fog, lightning strikes, etc.), in 8% due to acts of sabotage (terrorism, attack on the pilot, etc.).
According to Boeing, the most dangerous phase of flight is landing. 45% of accidents occur at the moment of touchdown, another 13% during approach. 12% of accidents occur at takeoff, 13% during climb, 6% during cruise, 5% during pre-takeoff preparation, baggage and cargo loading, passenger boarding, etc.
According to calculations by the consulting firm BACK Associates, which analyzed aviation accident statistics from 1981 to 2004, the fewer accidents the aircraft of a given airline are involved in, the safer it is to use its services. The chance that someone will die as a result of a flight for airlines among the top 25 is 1 in 4.25 million. For the 25 worst airlines – 1 in 543,000.
BACK Associates also annually publishes a list of the world's safest airlines. According to 2006 results, the top ten included: Delta Airlines, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Continental Airlines, United Airlines, US Airways, Northwest Airlines (all USA), Lufthansa (Germany), British Airways (UK), and America West Airlines (USA). In this ranking, Ukraine International Airlines (Ukraine) took 56th place, Transaero (Russia) - 57, Aeroflot (Russia) - 64.
The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board offers the following recommendations:
1. Choose non-stop flights. They are less likely to be hijacked.
2. Choose larger aircraft. Statistics show that in the event of a crash, passengers have a better chance of survival.
3. Do not overload overhead baggage bins. If the aircraft hits turbulence or crashes, heavy items may break your skull.
4. Do not attempt to bring any dangerous materials onto the aircraft.
5. Be careful. Every year, a huge number of cases are recorded where passengers get burned by tea or coffee. The highest number of injuries occur in the lavatory.
6. Do not drink too much.
7. Do not unfasten your seatbelt during the flight. This precaution can be useful not only if the aircraft starts to fall, but also when it enters a zone of turbulence.
8. Pay attention to what the flight crew tells you about the safety measures on board. Five minutes of attention can save your life.
9. Familiarize yourself with the written instructions that are on every seat. At least locate the nearest emergency exit. Remember that if the aircraft has a breach, you will have no more than 15 seconds to put on an oxygen mask. If a fire breaks out in the aircraft, try not to inhale smoke - breathe through a cloth. If the aircraft lands - leave it immediately.
10. Remember the main rule regarding cell phones. While the aircraft doors are closed - do not use them.
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